Preparing For The Long Term Consequences In Texas And Western Canada

The growing downturn in the fossil fuels industry has extraordinary implications globally. While some are proposing theories that this downturn will be short-lived, there simply isn’t much evidence to support an optimistic forecast. Saudi Arabia is openly executing a long term strategy to squeeze “high cost oil producers,” using its unquestioned leverage and the lowest production costs in the World. Europe is facing potential deflation, and the current European recession is forcing the European Central Bank to begin “quantitative easing,” beginning this week, essentially printing money. The Russian economy is in shambles as the ruble weakens, something Putin did not plan on occurring. The Chinese economy has weakened sharply and will likely remain weak into the near foreseeable future. Meanwhile Canada is at the mercy of these global forces, with little in the way of economic reserves to defend its economy, having bet the entire Canadian economy on oil.


MIDLAND, Tex. — With oil prices plummetingby more than 50 percent since June, the gleeful mood of recent years has turned glum here in West Texas as the frenzy of shale oil drilling has come to a screeching halt.

Every day, oil companies are decommissioning rigs and announcing layoffs. Small firms that lease equipment have fallen behind in their payments.

In response, businesses and workers are getting ready for the worst. A Mexican restaurant has started a Sunday brunch to expand its revenues beyond dinner. A Mercedes dealer, anticipating reduced demand, is prepared to emphasize repairs and sales of used cars. And people are cutting back at home, rethinking their vacation plans and cutting the hours of their housemaids and gardeners.

Dexter Allred, the general manager of a local oil field service company, began farming alfalfa hay on the side some years ago in the event that oil prices declined and work dried up. He was taking a cue from his grandfather, Homer Alf Swinson, an oil field mechanic, who opened a coin-operated carwash in 1968 — just in case.

Photo

Homer Alf Swinson, left, an oil field mechanic, opened a coin-operated carwash in 1968 — just in case oil prices declined. CreditMichael Stravato for The New York Times

“We all have backup plans,” Mr. Allred said with laugh. “You can be sure oil will go up and down, the only question is when.”

Indeed, to residents here in the heart of the oil patch, booms and busts go with the territory.

“This is Midland and it’s just a way of life,” said David Cristiani, owner of a downtown jewelry store, who keeps a graph charting oil prices since the late 1990s on his desk to remind him that the good times don’t last forever. “We are always prepared for slowdowns. We just hunker down. They wrote off the Permian Basin in 1984, but the oil will always be here.”

It’s at times like these that Midland residents recall the wild swings of the 1980s, a decade that began with parties where people drank Dom Pérignon out of their cowboy boots. Rolls-Royce opened a dealership, and the local airport had trouble finding space to park all the private jets. By the end of the decade, the Rolls-Royce dealership was shut and replaced by a tortilla factory, and three banks had failed.

There has been nothing like that kind of excess over the past five years, despite the frenzy of drilling across the Permian Basin, the granddaddy of American oil fields. Set in a forsaken desert where tumbleweed drifts through long-forgotten towns, the region has undergone a renaissance in the last four years, with horizontal drilling and fracking reaching through multiple layers of shales stacked one over the other like a birthday cake.

But since the Permian Basin rig count peaked at around 570 last September, it has fallen to below 490 and local oil executives say the count will probably go down to as low as 300 by April unless prices rebound. The last time the rig count declined as rapidly was in late 2008 and early 2009, when the price of oil fell from over $140 to under $40 a barrel because of the financial crisis.

Unlike traditional oil wells, which cannot be turned on and off so easily, shale production can be cut back quickly, and so the field’s output should slow considerably by the end of the year.

The Dallas Federal Reserve recently estimated that the falling oil prices and other factors will reduce job growth in Texas overall from 3.6 percent in 2014 to as low as 2 percent this year, or a reduction of about 149,000 in jobs created.

Midland’s recent good fortune is plain to see. The city has grown in population from 108,000 in 2010 to 140,000 today, and there has been an explosion of hotel and apartment construction. Companies like Chevron and Occidental are building new local headquarters. Real estate values have roughly doubled over the past five years, according to Mayor Jerry Morales.

The city has built a new fire station and recruited new police officers with the infusion of new tax receipts, which increased by 19 percent from 2013 to 2014 alone. A new $14 million court building is scheduled to break ground next month. But the city has also put away $39 million in a rainy-day fund for the inevitable oil bust.

“This is just a cooling-off period,” Mayor Morales said. “We will prevail again.”

Expensive restaurants are still full and traffic around the city can be brutal. Still, everyone seems to sense that the pain is coming, and they are preparing for it.

Randy Perry, who makes $115,000 a year, plus bonuses, managing the rig crews at Elevation Resources, said he always has a backup plan.

“We are responding to survive, so that we may once again thrive when we come out the other side,” said Steven H. Pruett, president and chief executive of Elevation Resources, a Midland-based oil exploration and production company. “Six months ago there was a swagger in Midland and now that swagger is gone.”

Mr. Pruett’s company had six rigs running in early December but now has only three. It will go down to one by the end of the month, even though he must continue to pay a service company for two of the rigs because of a long-term contract.

The other day Mr. Pruett drove to a rig outside of Odessa he feels compelled to park to save cash, and he expressed concern that as many as 50 service workers could eventually lose their jobs.

But the workers themselves seemed stoic about their fortunes, if not upbeat.

“It’s always in the back of your mind — being laid off and not having the security of a regular job,” said Randy Perry, a tool-pusher who makes $115,000 a year, plus bonuses, managing the rig crews. But Mr. Perry said he always has a backup plan because layoffs are so common; even inevitable.

Since graduating from high school a decade ago, he has bought several houses in East Texas and fixed them up, doing the plumbing and electrical work himself. At age 29 with a wife and three children, he currently has three houses, and if he is let go, he says he could sell one for a profit he estimates at $50,000 to $100,000.

Just a few weeks ago, he and other employees received a note from Trent Latshaw, the head of his company, Latshaw Drilling, saying that layoffs may be necessary this year.

“The people of the older generation tell the young guys to save and invest the money you make and have cash flow just in case,” Mr. Perry said during a work break. “I feel like everything is going to be O.K. This is not going to last forever.”

The most nervous people in Midland seem to be the oil executives who say busts may be inevitable, but how long they last is anybody’s guess.

Over a lavish buffet lunch recently at the Petroleum Club of Midland, the talk was woeful and full of conspiracy theories about how the Saudis were refusing to cut supplies to vanquish the surging American oil industry.

“At $45 a barrel, it shuts down nearly every project,” Steve J. McCoy, Latshaw Drilling’s director of business development, told Mr. Pruett and his guests. “The Saudis understand and they are killing us.”

Mr. Pruett nodded in agreement, adding, “They are trash-talking the price of oil down.”

“Everyone has been saying `Happy New Year,’” Mr. Pruett continued. “Yeah, some happy new year.”

Canada’s “Natural Resource Curse” Will Wreak Economic Havoc For A Decade

Those following international events have probably already seen the stories on Putin’s Russia, and the combined impact international economic sanctions, and now, the unexpected and unwelcome plummet in World oil prices. The Russian economy in 2015 will likely see a budget deficit of $20 Billion or more as the ruble collapses and oil prices plummet. The problem is global and expected by analysts to persist for the foreseeable future. Lesser developed countries like Venezuela and Nigeria, which are more dependent on their oil economies, are expected to see even greater impacts. Economists commonly refer to this as the “natural resource curse.”


Oil’s “new normal” will be global oil prices at or below $70 per barrel, say John Mauldin of equities.com, and many other analysts.  Western Canadian Select (WCS) closed at $55 per barrel this week. The impact on the Canadian economy will be ugly and prolonged. Fasten your seatbelts.

Oil Sands 20120710

Suncor’s Fort McMurray Facility

Those following international events have probably already seen the stories on Putin’s Russia, and the combined impact international economic sanctions, and now, the unexpected and unwelcome plummet in World oil prices. The Russian economy in 2015 will likely see a budget deficit of $20 Billion or more as the ruble collapses and oil prices plummet. The problem is global and expected by analysts to persist for the foreseeable future. Lesser developed countries like Venezuela and Nigeria, which are more dependent on their oil economies, are expected to see even greater impacts.  Economists commonly refer to this as the “natural resource curse.”  Put simply, it means that national economies that elect to depend on their natural resources for economic prosperity, have consistently underperformed economies that emphasize greater economic diversity and prepare for the wild swings of commodity prices. A key missing element in these economies is a lack of investment in innovation which causes a deterioration of productivity.

Canada’s involvement in this same scenario is getting limited attention.  As the other major industrialized country with a “natural resource exploitation” based economy, fueled by the support of the current federal government which includes known climate change skeptics, Canada is running into the same buzz saw as Russia.  The Prime Minister is keen to put a brave face on all of this, which to many seems to have the feeling of “whistling in the graveyard.”  Last week, the government announced a program to allegedly fight the higher prices many Canadians pay for goods priced much more cheaply in the United States. Long a thorn in the side of Canadians, the move is seen as political arm waving with no teeth. The declining Canadian dollar and economic impact of our “natural resource curse” will make Harper’s plan to eliminate higher Canadian prices a sad joke on Canadians. The full impacts of these economic realities will be far wider: significant loss of jobs, chronic government budget deficits, a decline in industrial investment. Canada’s OECD productivity has fallen sharply behind the other industrialized countries. There will most certainly be a further decline in productivity due to Canada’s decades long failure to invest in innovation, preferring instead to offset poor productivity with windfall dollars from natural resource exploitation.

There is one industrialized nation that has recognized the reality of this Doomsday scenario: Norway. Norway has taken bold national action to protect the nation from the whipsaw impacts of the “natural resource curse.”  I have previously written about Norway’s plan to protect its economy, as has The Globe & Mail, while the Harper government prefers to do nothing.

READ MORE: Norway Confronts Its Natural Resource Curse

Super Rich Guy to Billionaires: Get with the 99% Or Prepare for Revolution

Some people seem to be having a problem with Nick Hanauer. He seems to have pissed off a lot of people, but at the same time, he seems to be talking sense and to have achieved significant traction. This often seems to happen in times of turmoil and change. A multi-millionaire in his own right, but also someone with a profound liberal arts and humanities grounding, Mr. Hanauer has called “foul,” with the behavior of the 1%. I am personally fascinated with people like this, because I sense that Hanauer is somewhat like me. I worked with Ivy League MBA’s at Intel who said to me that they wished that they had my humanities education, while I told them that I wished I had their management education. I now teach management in a prestigious university and can comment intelligently.


 NICK HANAUER

Some people seem to be having a problem with Nick Hanauer.  He seems to have pissed off a lot of people, but at the same time, he seems to be talking sense and to have achieved significant traction. This often seems to happen in times of turmoil and change. A multi-millionaire in his own right, but also someone with a profound liberal arts and humanities grounding, Mr. Hanauer has called “foul,”  with the behavior of the 1%. I am personally fascinated with people like this, because I sense that Hanauer is somewhat like me. I worked with Ivy League MBA’s at Intel who said to me that they wished that they had my humanities education, while I told them that I wished I had their management education. I now teach management in a prestigious university and can comment intelligently.

I admit openly to being a capitalist, but something has gone terribly wrong with our system.  I follow the leading global investment banks. I know about Michael Lewis, Liar’s Poker, Flash Boys, LIBOR, foreign exchange fraud, commodity trading fraud, tax evasion for wealthy U.S and German clients, money laundering for drug cartels and ask myself what has gone so terribly wrong.  The worst has been Silicon Valley luminary venture capitalists like Tom Perkins, who have become an obscene embarrassment. Some of the wealthy have tried to distance themselves from Mr. Perkins, but actually have their own equivocations for why everyone misunderstands them.

I agree with Mr. Hanauer. The pendulum is swinging back as it always does and unless the rich get on board with ethical reform, the backlash will be harsh.

 

Super-Rich Guy To ‘Zillionaires’: Back $15 Minimum Wage Or

Prepare For Revolution

A Seattle millionaire is urging his super-rich peers to support a $15 minimum wage or face the possibility of a devastating populist revolt.

In an essay published this week by Politico Magazine, venture capitalist Nick Hanauer warned that the widening income gap in the U.S. would eventually spark a violent revolution.

“No society can sustain this kind of rising inequality,” Hanauer wrote in the piece, shared nearly 200,000 times on Facebook by Tuesday afternoon. “In fact, there is no example in human history where wealth accumulated like this and the pitchforks didn’t eventually come out.”

Hanauer, whose fortune ballooned thanks to an early investment in Amazon, first suggested raising the minimum wage to $15 last year in an op-ed published by Bloomberg View.

A February profile in the Seattle Timessaid he first became “obsessed” with the $15-an-hour figure in late 2012. Last month, with Hanauer’s blessing, Seattle’s city council unanimously passed an ordinance enshrining that wage — the nation’s highest guaranteed minimum pay — in law.

Hanauer has faced criticism from conservatives and business pundits. In 2012, his TED talk about imposing more taxes on the wealthy was banned from the conference’s site after it was deemed “too political.”

Hanauer argues in the Politico essay that the trickle-down economics evangelized by conservatives since President Ronald Reagan is “idiotic” and compared it to the way medieval monarchs and rulers claimed their fortune and power was bestowed by higher powers.

“Historically, we called that divine right,” he wrote. “Today we have trickle-down economics.”

That philosophy makes it difficult for middle-class customers to earn enough money to spend on the products people get wealthy selling, Hanauer writes.

“The model for us rich guys here should be Henry Ford, who realized that all his autoworkers in Michigan weren’t only cheap labor to be exploited; they were customers, too,” he writes. “Ford figured that if he raised their wages, to a then-exorbitant $5 a day, they’d be able to afford his Model Ts.”

Hanaeur said inaction by larger companies like Walmart and McDonald’s prove that “we should compel retailers to pay living wages – not just ask politely.”

This year has given Hanauer reasons to feel emboldened. French economist Thomas Piketty struck a nerve with his book on the widening wealth gap, Capital In The Twenty-First Century which skyrocketed to No. 1 on Amazon. Further fueling the fire, the International Monetary Fund last month urged the United States to raise the minimum wage or risk even slower economic growth.

“If workers have more money, businesses have more customers,” Hanauer wrote. “The middle class creates us rich people, not the other way around.”

Technology Entrepreneurship: Free Stanford University Online Course

Stanford University’s free online course, Technology Entrepreneurship begins this week. I have agreed to be a mentor to a maximum of two entrepreneurial teams in this Stanford online course.
In addition to being free you can follow the course on your schedule via the posted video lectures. The course will be taught by Assistant Professor Chuck Eesley. The recommended textbook, Technology Ventures, by Thomas Byers, Richard Dorf, and Andrew Nelson, is available as an etextbook on CourseSmart or Kindle. The first three course videos are available online now.

I will also be working this term with Professor Thomas Hellman at the University of British Columbia’s Sauder School of Business on his Technology Entrepreneurship course. I will be scheduling time to meet with students for both the Stanford and UBC Sauder courses. Further information on dates and times will be posted here.


Stanford University’s free online course, Technology Entrepreneurship begins this week. I have agreed to be a mentor to a maximum of two entrepreneurial teams in this Stanford online course.

In addition to being free you can follow the course on your schedule via the posted video lectures. The course will be taught by Assistant Professor Chuck Eesley.  The recommended textbook, Technology Ventures, by Thomas Byers, Richard Dorf, and Andrew Nelson, is available as an etextbook on CourseSmart or Kindle.  The first three course videos are available online now.

I will also be working this term with Professor Thomas Hellman at the University of British Columbia’s Sauder School of Business on his Technology Entrepreneurship course. I will be scheduling time to meet with students for both the Stanford and UBC Sauder courses.  Further information  on dates and times will be posted here.

VIDEO: Stanford University E145: Technology Entrepreneurship, Introduction & Overview

Register for this free course here: Free Registration for Technology Entrepreneurship

Recommended Textbook

TechnologyVentures

Technology Ventures: From Idea to Enterprise

Byers, Dorf, Nelson

McGraw Hill

ISBN:  978–0–07–338018–6

Setback for Net Neutrality May Actually Speed Its Adoption

Yesterday, the United Stated Federal Court of Appeals in Washington, D.C. issued a ruling that was essentially a “technical” setback for the notion that all Internet traffic should be treated equally, better known as Net Neutrality. The ruling now permits giant corporations like Verizon, NBC/Comcast, and Time Warner to charge higher fees to content providers like Netflix, Amazon and even potentially, Google. If that sounds bad for consumers, you are right. This decision was essentially caused by an earlier decision of the U.S. Federal Communications Commission to maintain a free and open “hands off” policy, and not regulate Internet traffic, considered evil by Internet purists. But the effect of this Court ruling may be greater evil, leading to the conclusion that “common carrier” regulation may be the lesser of two evils.


Yesterday, the United Stated Federal Court of Appeals in Washington, D.C. issued a ruling that was essentially a “technical” setback for the notion that all Internet traffic should be treated equally, better known as Net Neutrality. The ruling now permits giant corporations like Verizon, NBC/Comcast, and Time Warner to charge higher fees to content providers like Netflix, Amazon and even potentially, Google.  If that sounds bad for consumers, you are right.

This Court decision has even deeper implications as NBC/Comcast is in the unique position of being both a “carrier” of the Internet bits, and a “content provider.” The enables Comcast to charge higher fees to content providers for content that competes with NBC. Is that anti-competitive? Sure sounds like it to me.

This decision was essentially caused by an earlier decision of the U.S. Federal Communications Commission to maintain a free and open “hands off” policy, and not regulate Internet traffic, considered evil by Internet purists.

But the effect of this Court ruling may be greater evil, leading to the conclusion that “common carrier” regulation of the Internet may be the lesser of the two evils, and an inevitable outgrowth of the NSA Internet espionage revelations, Chinese military Internet espionage revelations, and “balkanization” of the Internet by foreign governments, building protectionist national firewalls, and just plain old Internet traffic snooping of your privacy.   It is like what happened to the Summer of Love. The Internet was originally about free love, but before long the whole thing deteriorated into a jungle. That is what we have now, and by the simple decision of the FCC to declare the Internet a “common carrier,” a regulated telecommunications infrastructure, corporations would need to implement Net Neutrality and report their Internet traffic policies to the government.  For those who hate government regulation, I agree in principle. Sadly, it is the corporations, and the NSA that have made this imperative, to insure transparency, equality, and some level of Internet privacy.

In February of 2013 I wrote on this blog about the problem, and the book Captive Audience: The Telecom Industry and Monopoly Power in the New Gilded Age, by Yale Law School Professor Susan P. Crawford.

Read more: Why Internet Neutrality is so important

Vinod Khosla writes a scathing response to 60 Minutes’ ‘Cleantech Crash’ report

Originally posted on Gigaom:
Venture capitalist Vinod Khosla has written a 2,000-word open letter to 60 Minutes and CBS in response to their recent “Cleantech Crash” report, which featured lengthy interviews with Khosla and a tour of one of Khosla’s portfolio companies. He asserts that there are numerous errors in the piece, that the journalists…


Vinod Khosla gives CBS News 60 Minutes another major black eye on their bias and lack of investigative depth, as with the lightweight report on the NSA.  Just consider for a moment the absurdity of 60 Minutes story in the light of recent major strategic initiatives by Cisco Systems, Intel, Qualcomm on clean tech and the “Internet of Things.  Add to that this week’s announcement of Google’s acquisition of Nest, a major energy efficiency company, for $3 Billion.  Khosla’s entire open letter to CBS is shown below.

Vinod Khosla writes a scathing response to 60 Minutes’

‘Cleantech Crash’ report

Venture capitalist Vinod Khosla has written a 2,000-word open letter to 60 Minutes and CBS in response to their recent “Cleantech Crash” report, which featured lengthy interviews with Khosla and a tour of one of Khosla’s portfolio companies. He asserts that there are numerous errors in the piece, that the journalists who made it were practicing “agenda-driven bastardization of news reporting,” and that the story “grossly misrepresented the state of the sustainable energy industry.”

You can read the entire letter here. He also says in the letter that Khosla Venture’s “cleantech portfolio is profitable.” Here’s my take on the 60 Minutes piece; here’sNRG CEO David Crane’s response; and here’s clean power entrepreneur and investor Jigar Shah’s take.

Open Letter to 60 Minutes and CBS

January 14th, 2014

To: 60 Minutes and CBS

Attn: Lesley Stahl, Jeff Fager, David Rhodes, Leslie Moonves

On January 5, 2014, CBS’ 60 Minutes aired a segment titled, “The Cleantech Crash” that grossly misrepresented the state of the sustainable energy industry.

At Khosla Ventures, we are focused on finding real solutions for energy independence, rather than just pontificating. The pontificators at 60 Minutes, with their agenda-driven bastardization of news reporting, failed to do the most elementary fact checking and source qualification, as was the case with your Benghazi reporting. No wonder one major media outlet wrote that you have been “widely criticized for leaving out crucial information about the state of the clean tech sector.” Is this the new CBS standard?

The errors in your story are numerous.

Fact: I have not invested over a billion dollars of my own money into cleantech. It is substantially less, and a simple query to us would have corrected this error. We manage a balanced portfolio, and it has not “crashed” nor is it “dead”. In fact, our returns are significantly above the venture capital average.

Fact: Contrary to your assertion, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Loan Guarantee Program has created 55,000 new cleantech jobs. [1]

Fact: The DOE loan program, despite your implications, has a 97% success rate. [2] The former program head, Jonathan Silver, expects it to make money, not be a subsidy.

Fact: There is $51 billion remaining in DOE loan money.[3] The amounts in the CBS report are far from “spent” or allocated. You seem to want to cite big numbers, whether they are true or not!

Fact: A substantial portion of DOE loans is allocated to nuclear energy[4], not just cleantech segments like biofuels, solar or wind, a fact conveniently left out despite your being aware of it.

Fact: The U.S. spent $502 billion subsidizing fossil fuels in 2011. This is the result of directly lowered prices, tax breaks and failing to properly price carbon’s negative externalities.[5] You ignored the fact that energy is far from being a level playing field. Many other subsidies are hard to account for like MLP partnerships, accelerated depreciation and below-market royalties that are never categorized as fossil fuel subsidies that disadvantage cleantech.

Fact: According to a senior U.S. Navy official, last year alone, $80 billion of taxpayer money was spent patrolling just the oil sea-lanes in the Arabian Gulf. There are many sea-lanes we patrol. Globally and over time, the U.S. has spent $7 trillion patrolling them.[6] Such “protection spending” of U.S. taxpayer dollars for the oil industry is a much larger subsidy than any amount spent to support the cleantech industry, a fact CBS chose to overlook despite my statements on camera. This may be the largest U.S. subsidy in history, and it was purposely ignored because it is inconsistent with your agenda. Cleantech subsidies are a miniscule fraction of one-percent of these amounts.

The Department of Energy said it themselves, “Simply put, 60 Minutes is flat wrong on the facts. The clean energy economy in America is real, and we are increasingly competitive in this rapidly expanding global industry. This is a race we can, must and will win.”

There were many opportunities for you to showcase cleantech successes such as the dynamic glass company, View, with whom you met and visited as part of your research. You also had knowledge that View raised $60 million in private funding in early 2013, and weeks before your program aired, View secured an additional $100 million in private funding. These dollars will go toward ramping production efforts in its Mississippi-based manufacturing facility, which will in turn create scores of new American jobs. Sustainable energy is the way forward for this new era of American manufacturing.  Already, the Brookings Institute reports that the clean economy employs over 2.7 million workers despite your implications to the contrary!

You chose to ignore other success stories like energy storage company, Lightsail, which we also shared with you. In fact, you did not even want to visit the solar, engines or agriculture success stories, among others. You chose to ignore these FACTS, because it did not jive with the story you wanted to tell. Is your job reporting all the facts or merely pushing “angles”?

You fundamentally do not understand how innovation works with platitudes like, “for every 10 startups, nine go under”.  At Khosla Ventures, we invest in companies that have high failure probabilities, but the wins far outweigh the losses. I clearly explained that we expect 50-percent of our portfolio companies to make money and today, our overall cleantech portfolio is profitable; however, CBS chose to air sources who have never looked at the details of a quality venture portfolio. In fact, their so-called experts are only expert pontificators who have never produced any biofuels themselves.  One always can find a “source “ to throw mud at anything to get on-air; CBS appears to want the same standards for sourcing as the National Enquirer.

You falsely implied that our companies have received disproportionate taxpayer money, despite my repeatedly telling you otherwise. While these numbers are hard to accurately calculate, to the best of our knowledge, a substantial amount of funding (greater than 90%) for our cleantech portfolio has come from private sources. When our companies have received funding from the DOE, the dollar amounts represent a small fraction of the investment from private dollars. It is naive to believe that we can subsidize energy on a large scale; this kind of thinking would bankrupt any government, and yet CBS seems to imply that all our investments are based substantially on taxpayer money or are dependent on ongoing subsidies, a statement that is simply untrue.

In fact, the former head of the DOE loan program, Jonathan Silver, stated publicly that some of the projects cited as failures by CBS never even got loans in the first place. You also failed to note that while Range Fuels took federal loan money, we strongly opposed their decision to do so. Because these are independent companies, we seldom control these decisions. Repeatedly, your story reinforced the 60 Minutes thesis rather than objectively reporting the facts.

According to Silver, the DOE loan program was actually designed to make a profit in the long term even taking into account the failures, which represent a remarkably small portion of the portfolio (less than three percent). Any loan program, private or public, has both losses and gains. When the investment cycle is complete, Silver expects the government will actually make a profit on the portfolio. Interests are below market (just as in the oil leases that oil companies receive) but the terms are restrictive enough that our portfolio companies, Kior and Stion (our solar company) and others refused the loans even after they were awarded. CBS also failed to distinguish between federal loans that were designed to be profitable (the bulk of the money), research grants (billions spent on private universities and companies in and outside cleantech), work-for-hire (do we list Lockheed Martin, which receives billions of dollars annually in work-for-hire government revenue, as a subsidy?) and other programs.

You misleadingly hyped the “$150 billion” allocated to cleantech without noting that, while it has been allocated, much of it has not been spent. Further, to the best of my knowledge, much of such project spending goes to larger incumbents, not entrepreneurs.

Your naïve reporting also failed to account for the other setbacks we have gone through in the last five years, such as the economic crisis, which, while unrelated to cleantech, has substantially hurt the ability to fund cleantech research or projects. Many projects — be they chemical, oil sands or cleantech — have failed to meet their expectations because of the recent financial crisis.

At scale, new technologies must compete with conventional fossil fuels on both price and performance – in the U.S., as well as in India and China. Energy incumbents have incredible advantages embedded in our tax code, government regulation and public infrastructure; therefore, new competitive efforts must be nourished and encouraged to maintain a more competitive environment and a level playing field. Subsidies should be used to introduce new competition to markets against the embedded advantages granted to incumbents. We must reform America’s energy policy before companies become dependent on the existing subsidy regime. As context, Chinese solar, wind, LED and other companies get substantially larger government loans to compete against U.S. producers, even without technology differentiation. In fact, we risk losing technology to China because there is simply more government support there. U.S manufacturing suffers as a result. The 1950s and 60s saw the moon race. Today, we are in a new race for sustainable energy, but we risk losing because of irresponsible reporting like that of CBS!

Khosla Ventures does not believe in subsidy-dependent markets. Reaching unsubsidized market competitiveness five to seven years after a commercial start is an abiding principle for all of our investments. Subsidies are a crutch: they force innovation into a niche and create dependence on financial incentives that will eventually disappear. I have publicly stated that I am against corn ethanol and wind subsidies, among others, and in favor of reducing solar and biofuel subsidies over time. I also have written about the criteria for good subsidy programs elsewhere. We need to level the playing field in order to create new competition for fossil energy. Currently, there is an unfair advantage for fossil fuels with favorable tax legislation like Master Limited Partnerships, accelerated depreciation and below market royalties, and of course the aforementioned IMF-calculated subsidies as well as free transportation protection services provided by the federal government. It all adds up to massive numbers, much larger than for cleantech, and it has been going on for decades!

New industries are created by entrepreneurs who don’t necessarily have subject matter expertise when they get started, yet they are still responsible for most of the innovation we see in society. Did Google know much about media? Or Amazon about commerce? Tesla about cars? SpaceX about rockets?  EBay about classifieds? Juniper about telecommunications? What did I know about computing when I started Sun Microsystems? We should celebrate these entrepreneurs, not pillory them for fighting entrenched incumbent industries that have political influence and money. And yes, they often fail, but they also create more positive change than incumbents who, in general, are only responsible for incremental improvements. The oil industry has probably spent more money advertising their environmental efforts with the likes of CBS than on real research in green technologies.

Your so-called “experts” pontificate about the hard problem of energy; we heard similar things about the difficulty of telecommunications with trillions invested in infrastructure. Then, the Internet came along, despite the indifference of every major telecommunications carrier, and upended the industry. Looking back through history, we can easily find common shortsighted attitudes when evaluating new technologies. When Alexander Graham Bell invented the telephone, it was dismissed out-of-hand by the incumbent telegram service, Western Union. “The idea is idiotic on the face of it…. we do not see that this device will be ever capable of sending recognizable speech over a distance of several miles.”  Venture capitalist, Ben Horowitz, describes this naysaying attitude in an article titled, “Can-Do vs. Can’t-Do Culture”. As he so aptly points out about the naysayers, “They focused on what the technology could not do at the time rather than what it could do and might be able to do in the future.” This cynicism is exactly what CBS has proliferated in its unbalanced and unfair coverage of the cleantech industry. Today, the stakes are higher than ever as the world’s population increases and resources are limited. Our can-do attitude must overcome the naysayers.

To get to the energy-independent future we need, we must continue to try and sometimes fail, but the consequence for not trying is guaranteed failure. We will keep accepting intelligent and selective failure. Even oil prospecting has a greater than 55-percent failure rate, and yet we still do it. In the venture industry, we make risky bets all the time because that’s what it takes to innovate.

The future will run on energy. At Khosla Ventures, we are focused on making big bets to ensure a sustainable future even if some of them fail. It is unfortunate that stories like yours employ Benghazi-style reporting standards that overshadow the truth. I will continue to try and make the future happen and, when it does, hopefully someone else will do a better job reporting it.

As Robert F. Kennedy said, “Only those who dare to fail greatly can ever achieve greatly.”

— Vinod Khosla

Gigaom

Venture capitalist Vinod Khosla has written a 2,000-word open letter to 60 Minutes and CBS in response to their recent “Cleantech Crash” report, which featured lengthy interviews with Khosla and a tour of one of Khosla’s portfolio companies. He asserts that there are numerous errors in the piece, that the journalists who made it were practicing “agenda-driven bastardization of news reporting,” and that the story “grossly misrepresented the state of the sustainable energy industry.”

You can read the entire letter here. He also says in the letter that Khosla Venture’s “cleantech portfolio is profitable.” Here’s my take on the 60 Minutes piece; here’s NRG CEO David Crane’s response; and here’s clean power entrepreneur and investor Jigar Shah’s take.

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Barclays, Others Expand FX Probe to Salespeople (The Wall Street Journal Europe, Nov 20 2013, Page1)

LONDON—Banks including Barclays PLC that are enmeshed in the global investigation into potential manipulation of foreign- exchange markets are looking into the possible roles played by their salespeople, according to people familiar with the…read more…


Barclays, Others Expand FX Probe to Salespeople
By Chiara Albanese, Katie Martin and David Enrich
The Wall Street Journal Europe
Nov 20 2013

LONDON—Banks including Barclays PLC that are enmeshed in the global investigation into potential manipulation of foreign- exchange markets are looking into the possible roles played by their salespeople, according to people familiar with the…read more…

See my earlier posts on this story:

Read more: Biggest Global Banks face new foreign exchange fraud probe

Read more: Manipulation of global currency trading suspected by Swiss investigators

Read more: Crony capitalism, UBS, LIBOR, Phil Gramm and the Junk Bond King

NSA Spying Is Freezing Cisco, Google And Other Companies Out of Trillion Dollar Global Market

The good news today is Cisco’s new focus on the Internet of Things, which I have been reporting as the new Mega Global Market War. But frankly, the damage to U.S. companies like Cisco Systems by the NSA spying scandal has been catastrophic. Not only Cisco, but Google’s strategy to become a global Internet Service Provider, Yahoo, and Facebook are all affected.


The good news today is Cisco‘s new focus on the Internet of Things, which I have been reporting as the new Mega Global Market War.  But frankly, the damage to U.S. companies like Cisco Systems by the NSA spying scandal has been catastrophic. Not only Cisco, but Google’s strategy to become a global Internet Service Provider, Yahoo, and Facebook are all affected. Cisco’s political problem is an exact mirror image of the problems Huawei has had with suspicions of espionage. Google’s strategic initiative to expand as a global ISP has hit major foreign government snags, most notably recently in India, where Gmail has been banned for government employees.

Read more: New Global Mega Industry Battle Developing in the Internet of Everything

Bill Gates was asked directly today about the potential damage from the NSA revelations, while visiting ResearchGate in Berlin.  Many knowledgeable Internet observers are predicting a severe “balkanization” of the Internet. This means that in reaction to the NSA scandal, countries all over the World will build national border walls to the Internet, destroying the original intent of the Internet as a free and open global network.  Gates answer today claimed that only China had erected serious national barriers to the Internet, and that China’s scientists were not restricted.  I think Gates is “whistling the graveyard.” Personally, I am already seeing strong blowback against Google in India and elsewhere precisely due to the NSA problem. I have reported on Eric Schmidt’s scathing criticism of the NSA in response. United States leadership in a free and open global Internet has been severely damaged.

Read more: Why Bill Gates Doesn’t Fear Internet “Balkanization”

BLOWBACK

Cisco’s disastrous quarter shows how NSA spying could freeze US companies out of a trillion-dollar opportunity

By Christopher Mims @mims 7 minutes ago

Bellwether Cisco indicates American tech companies are no longer welcome in Russia and other emerging markets. AP Photo/Lee Jin-man

Cisco announced two important things in today’s earnings report: The first is that the company is aggressively moving into the Internet of Things—the effort to connect just about every object on earth to the internet—by rolling out new technologies. The second is that Cisco has seen a huge drop-off in demand for its hardware in emerging markets, which the company blames on fears about the NSA using American hardware to spy on the rest of the world.

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Cisco chief executive John Chambers said on the company’s earnings call that he believes other American technology companies will be similarly affected. Cisco saw orders in Brazil drop 25% and Russia drop 30%. Both Brazil and Russia have expressed official outrage over NSA spying and have announced plans to curb the NSA’s reach.

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Analysts had expected Cisco’s business in emerging markets to increase 6%, but instead it dropped 12%, sending shares of Cisco plunging 10% in after-hours trading.

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This completely unexpected turn, which Chambers said was the fastest swing he had ever seen in emerging markets, comes just as Cisco is trying to establish itself as a bedrock technology provider for of the internet of things, which industry analysis firm IDC says will be an $8.9 trillion market by 2020. This quarter Cisco unveiled the nPower chip, a super-fast processor designed to funnel the enormous volumes of data that the internet of things will generate. Cisco also announced the Network Convergence System, a handful of routers that will use the nPower chip.

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Arguably, the current shift in the underlying infrastructure of the internet makes Cisco and other American companies uniquely vulnerable. The move to cloud services, streaming video and machine to machine communication (i.e., the internet of things) means new standards and new default hardware providers are taking root, and if NSA spying keeps American companies from dominating the market at an early stage, it could mean that in the long run they’ll simply be locked out of the

LIBOR 2: 15 Biggest Global Banks Face New Foreign Exchange Fraud Probe

It appears that international banking fraud and market manipulation continues unabated. The newest scandal brewing involves Swiss, British and American banks manipulating foreign currency exchange rates. The LIBOR fraud scandal has apparently done nothing to improve the ethics of the global financial services industry.

Less than two weeks ago I posted on this blog the revelation that banking authorities in Switzerland had opened an investigation into foreign exchange (arbitrage) fraud by Swiss banks. My report went on to say that the investigation was uncovering implications of broader involvement of banking institutions outside of Switzerland. Today, the Financial Times in London published an explosive article naming 15 global banks now implicated in the expanding investigation of global foreign exchange fraud and manipulation.


It appears that international banking fraud and market manipulation continues unabated.  The newest scandal brewing involves Swiss, British and American banks manipulating foreign currency exchange rates.  The LIBOR fraud scandal has apparently done nothing to improve the ethics of the global financial services industry. The implications of this probe of foreign currency trading manipulation are potentially no less monumental than the LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) interest rate fraud of last year, which led to massive fines on many of these same banks.

Less than two weeks ago I posted on this blog the revelation that banking authorities in Switzerland had opened an investigation into foreign exchange (arbitrage) fraud by Swiss banks. My report went on to say that the investigation was uncovering implications of broader involvement of banking institutions outside of Switzerland. Today, the Financial Times in London published an explosive article naming 15 global banks now implicated in the expanding investigation of global foreign exchange fraud and manipulation.

Read more: Manipulation of global currency trading suspected by Swiss investigators

Read more:  Biggest Global Banks Face New Forex Fraud Probe
REBLOGGED FROM THE FINANCIAL TIMES

November 12, 2013 8:46 pm

Biggest international banks face forex probe questions

By Daniel Schäfer and Caroline Binham

The global probe into foreign exchange manipulation has widened to include 15 of the world’s biggest banks and some of the most actively traded currencies, as lenders scramble to help authorities in exchange for leniency.

The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority – one of seven regulators handling the worldwide investigation – has in so far requested information from at least 15 banks, according to two people close to the situation. The rapidly accelerating probe is looking at whether traders manipulated markets by sharing information and trading ahead of their clients.

Investigations by the FCA as well as authorities in Switzerland, the US and Hong Kong are focusing on the euro-dollar market, the most liquid currency market in the world which accounts for almost a quarter of the $5.3tn daily trading volume.

Regulators and banks are also scrutinising trading in sterling, Australian dollar and Scandinavian currencies, two people familiar with the situation said, pushing the probe well beyond the niche currency markets that were initially thought to be under review.

Joaquín Almunia, the European Union competition commissioner, said that several banks have handed over information to Brussels to assist it with its antitrust inquiries in the hope of winning leniency.

He said the commission would start directing more resources to the foreign exchange investigation once it had finished settling with banks who were involved in the Libor scandal, which he said had cast a shadow over “thousands of financial benchmarks”.

“Before Libor, people thought benchmarks could be trusted. Now there’s a presumption that there’s a risk of manipulation. Perhaps manipulation is not the exception but the rule.”

Banks have completed lengthy inquiries into whether traders rigged Libor and other benchmarks, but the global investigation into currency manipulation was sparked by a whistleblower, who approached the FCA with their concerns, several people familiar with the investigation said.

UK authorities have been looking foreign exchange markets for at least two years amid widespread suspicions among investors and market participants about possible manipulation of a crucial benchmark, the 4pm WM/Reuters fix.

But their concerns were repeatedly dispelled by senior traders and reviews by banks and authorities did not yield any results before this spring.

Authorities have started examining trading connected to an array of financial benchmarks after the Libor interbank lending rate scandal erupted in full force last year, so far prompting more than $3.5bn in fines against financial institutions.

The banks under investigation by the FCA and other regulators in the sprawling currencies probe include BarclaysCitigroupDeutsche BankGoldman SachsHSBC,JPMorganMorgan StanleyRoyal Bank of ScotlandStandard Chartered and UBS. All of those banks – and a number of others – have launched internal reviews.

Bankers have long claimed that the foreign exchange market is impossible to manipulate given its vast size, but the investigation’s focus on the most liquid currencies such as the euro undermines this argument.

A currency manager at a large asset manager said that despite the foreign exchange market’s liquidity, an order of some $200m or less would often be large enough to influence prices.