Is Facebook Simply Replicating Kenya’s Successful M-Pesa Mobile Payment System?

Facebook’s Libra and Safaricom’s M-Pesa

Are the similarities mere coincidence and competition, or is a global mega-corporation exploiting a successful Kenyan enterprise without collaboration or compensation?

Since Facebook announced its new Libra currency and mobile payments scheme, the global reaction has been very mixed. Libra is not truly a cryptocurrency though it will use blockchain. It will be pegged to a reserve currency, which cryptocurrencies are not.  Libra will “potentially” be governed by an association independent of Facebook, though that association remains non-binding and sketchy at this point. Potential regulatory issues abound around the World, and Facebook is currently not viewed very favorably by many governments.  But most interesting to me, Libra appears to be modeled after Kenya’s M-Pesa mobile payments system, the world’s leading mobile payments system, invented by mobile carrier Safaricom. Then I asked myself if Facebook, knowing that it needs to move away from selling personal data, has seized on Safaricom’s M-Pesa as its new revenue model. 

More disturbing to me, I asked myself if this might possibly be an example of Western mega-corporate exploitation of a smaller enterprise in the developing world. I have heard no reference whatsoever to M-Pesa from Facebook. In similar situations in high tech, the mega-enterprise would typically acquire the intellectual property of the smaller company, hire its founders and employees to gain market advantage. This is often called an “acqui-hire.” Even without IP, it can be done to simply ensure a positive brand image transaction.

Four years ago, in 2015, Facebook With apparent good intentions, and also a good dose of Facebook business strategy, struck out to promote Free Basics, a free limited Internet for the poor in less developed countries sponsored by Facebook and its local telecommunications partners. India was a prime market focus. While on the face of it Free Basics seemed to have merit, Zuckerberg ran into a wall of opposition. On close inspection of the details, Facebook’s problem, despite all of its global corporate sophistication, appeared to have been naïveté about the foreign markets it was trying to enter. International business is strewn with case studies of corporate arrogance and ignorance that led to failure. Zuckerberg could have looked no further back than 2013 for clues from Google and Eric Schmidt, who also failed in India, as to why Facebook failed. The Indian government viewed both Facebook and Google with the same suspicion that they had for the Raj in 1947.

I do not have all the answers yet about Libra and M-PESA, and other mobile carriers have also entered the mobile payment market, but at this point, I have deep reservations about Facebook’s failure to acknowledge its role and its responsibility to Safaricom and M-PESA. IMHO, questions need to be raised directly to Facebook.

Read more: Facebook’s International Business Blunder: following in the footsteps of Google

A bit of history from The Economist:

Why Does Kenya Lead The World In Mobile Money?

A convergence of factors, some of them accidental, explain Kenya’s lead

Source: Why does Kenya lead the world in mobile money? – The Economist explains

The Economist explains

From March 2nd, 2015:

PAYING for a taxi ride using your mobile phone is easier in Nairobi than it is in New York, thanks to Kenya’s world-leading mobile-money system, M-PESA. Launched in 2007 by Safaricom, the country’s largest mobile network operator, it is now used by over 17m Kenyans, equivalent to more than two-thirds of the adult population; around 25% of the country’s gross national product flows through it. M-PESA lets people transfer cash using their phones, and is by far the most successful scheme of its type on earth. Why does Kenya lead the world in mobile money?

M-PESA was originally designed as a system to allow microfinance-loan repayments to be made by phone, reducing the costs associated with handling cash and thus making possible lower interest rates. But after pilot testing, it was broadened to become a general money-transfer scheme. Once you have signed up, you pay money into the system by handing cash to one of Safaricom’s 40,000 agents (typically in a corner shop selling airtime), who credits the money to your M-PESA account. You withdraw money by visiting another agent, who checks that you have sufficient funds before debiting your account and handing over the cash. You can also transfer money to others using a menu on your phone. Cash can thus be sent one place to another more quickly, safely and easily than taking bundles of money in person or asking others to carry it for you. This is particularly useful in a country where many workers in cities send money back home to their families in rural villages. Electronic transfers save people time, freeing them to do other, more productive things instead.

Dozens of mobile-money systems have been launched, so why has Kenya’s been the most successful? It had several factors in its favour, including the exceptionally high cost of sending money by other methods; the dominant market position of Safaricom; the regulator’s initial decision to allow the scheme to proceed on an experimental basis, without formal approval; a clear and effective marketing campaign (“Send money home”); an efficient system to move cash around behind the scenes; and, most intriguingly, the post-election violence in the country in early 2008. M-PESA was used to transfer money to people trapped in Nairobi’s slums at the time, and some Kenyans regarded M-PESA as a safer place to store their money than the banks, which were entangled in ethnic disputes. Having established a base of initial users, M-PESA then benefitted from network effects: the more people who used it, the more it made sense for others to sign up for it.

M-PESA has since been extended to offer loans and savings products, and can also be used to disburse salaries or pay bills, which saves users further time and money (because they do not need to waste hours queuing up at the bank). One study found that in rural Kenyan households that adopted M-PESA, incomes increased by 5-30%. In addition, the availability of a reliable mobile-payments platform has spawned a host of start-ups in Nairobi, whose business models build on M-PESA’s foundations. Mobile-money schemes in other countries, meanwhile, have been held up by opposition from banks and regulators and concerns over money-laundering. But M-PESA is starting to do well in other countries, including Tanzania and Afghanistan, and last month it was launched in India. At the same time, operators in some other countries are doing an increasingly good job of imitating it. Some of the factors behind Kenya’s lead cannot be copied; but many of them can, which means it should eventually be possible for other countries to follow Kenya’s pioneering example.

Paris, the Rising Hope for a European Silicon Valley | OZY 🇫🇷

Aix/Marseilles, Bourdeaux, Lyon, Paris, and Toulouse Are All Thriving French Tech Innovation Hubs

This article and others have focused on the recent meteoric rise of Paris as an emerging high technology innovation hub. However, there is much more to it than just Paris. There are thriving La French Tech Hubs all over France and in international locations around the World.  Both KPMG’s annual global Technology Industry Innovation Survey and the 2019 Startup Genome Global Startup Ecosystem Report have validated the significant advance of France and Paris as a leading innovation center.

 

Source: Paris, the Rising Hope for a European Silicon Valley | Fast Forward | OZY

Nick Fouriezos, Reporter

WHY YOU SHOULD CARE ABOUT THE RISE OF FRENCH TECH

The French, with their 35-hour workweek and café culture, might be poised to attract the next great tech talent.

Rand Hindi has the quintessential tech guru genesis story. He started coding at age 10 and built a social network by 14. After getting a Ph.D. in artificial intelligence, the entrepreneur set his sights on Silicon Valley. But that’s where the narrative began to fray. Despite all the hype, the Bay Area, known for innovation, felt like a bust. “When you [speak] to people, everybody says they want to do something great,” Hindi says. “But what people really want is to work at Google or sell their company to Google.” So Hindi returned to his native France, started Snips, a company specializing in AI voice technology, and watched his company flourish from three employees in 2013 to 80 today.

As a growing souring on Silicon Valley sinks in, young tech workers aren’t just leaving hot spots like San Francisco and New York, as OZY has previously reported. They are also leaving the country altogether. And while Asia’s — and in particular China’s — tech advances are drawing the world’s attention, it turns out that a growing number of startups are swooning for the City of Love.

For the first time, more than half of respondents to KPMG’s annual global Technology Industry Innovation Survey in 2019 believed that Silicon Valley will no longer be the technology innovation center of the world in four years — due to questions around its escalating cost of living, lack of diversity and troublesome corporate cultures. Cities like Beijing, Tokyo, Shanghai and Taipei are best placed to replace it, the survey suggests. But it’s Paris that is gaining the most steam. After not being ranked in last year’s KPMG survey, it moved up to No. 14 — behind only London among European cities. Other analysts are even more bullish: Paris ranked fourth in the A.T. Kearney Global Cities Report and third in the IESE Business School Cities in Motion Index.

IT MAKES PERFECT SENSE THAT PEOPLE WHO ARE THINKING ENTREPRENEURIALLY WOULD WANT TO BLAZE A DIFFERENT PATH.

ANDREW RUSSELL, SUNY POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE

Driving this shift is a growing contrast in France’s approach toward global tech innovations to the U.K. and the U.S., experts say. On the one hand, London’s status as a financial and innovation hub stands challenged by Brexit’s enduring uncertainties. And America and Britain are tightening up on immigration. On the other hand, the French government is aggressively courting tech entrepreneurs and investments — a strategy that’s showing results. Paris rents are also 61 percent cheaper than San Francisco’s, according to Numbeo, the crowd-sourced global database of statistics such as consumer prices, perceived crime rates and quality of health care.

In 2017, the Emmanuel Macron government introduced a program that fast-tracks four-year residence visas for tech entrepreneurs and their families. Since then, French tech startups are witnessing a dramatic increase in funding: There were 743 French startups raising money in 2017, a 45 percent increase from 2016, according to CB Insights. Global giants are taking notice, with both Facebook and Google opening new AI research centers in Paris. Google has even announced plans to create local “hubs” to teach digital skills in other French cities, such as Rennes, with the goal of getting more people online (and using Google products).

The private and nonprofit sectors are pitching in too. Since June 2017, Paris has hosted the 366,000-square-foot Station F, the world’s largest startup incubator, backed by French billionaire Xavier Niel and Iranian-American executive Roxanne Varza. In October 2018, nonprofit StartHer hosted Europe’s biggest startup competition in Paris explicitly catering to female founders, with a record 363 applications from 30 countries. And this March, the French government further expanded access to its tech visa, from around 100 qualifying startups to more than 10,000.

“It makes perfect sense that people who are thinking entrepreneurially would want to blaze a different path” given the high rent, cost of living and income disparities emerging in the Bay Area, says Andrew Russell, dean of the College of Arts & Sciences at SUNY Polytechnic Institute. Cities like Paris see “an opportunity to capture some of the energy” of Silicon Valley “without falling into some of the excesses and toxicity,” Russell adds.

Admittedly, the European market does not hold the same kind of stratospheric (and, to this point, largely unrealized) potential of Asia. But the new buzz around France’s startup scene simply didn’t exist just a few years ago. Hindi remembers the policies of François Hollande being “anti-startup” when the former French president first took over in 2012. But a rising backlash driven by business leaders led to significant change, says Hindi, a former member of the French Digital Council advising on AI and privacy issues.

Before, if your company went bankrupt, you were banned from starting another one for nine years, making students from French business and tech schools risk-averse. That policy has since been scrapped. Tax credits for hiring people were created, and up to 30 percent of a startup’s technology and salary expenses are reimbursed by the French government, allowing French companies to operate at a fraction of the cost of their foreign competitors. Then there’s the tech visa and its expansion.

Those incentives are sorely needed, considering the obstacles France does have. While the country has enough angel investors — and a de facto investor with the government — there isn’t much of an exit market. Unlike American companies, European companies have a tradition of more of a revenue-profit mindset and less of a willingness to take on the (substantial) risk of acquiring a mid-tier player and turning it into a massive, industry-defining giant, Hindi says. They also prefer to invest in goods and services over potentially groundbreaking technology that needs a few years to develop before producing, he adds. The even bigger challenge? The language, which is why London has typically reigned supreme in the European market.

Some of those issues are more perception than reality, say entrepreneurs and tech workers in France. Snips engineer Allen Welkie — who moved to Paris after working at startups along the East Coast of the United States — says many French-based companies are bilingual and that the visa process was simple. A better work-life balance than in the U.S. helps boost retention too, Hindi says. “In Silicon Valley, everybody is fighting for the same few talented people. … If you’re lucky, they’re going to stay a couple of years. How can you build a company if people are constantly leaving?” As San Francisco becomes more and more untenable for everyone but the highest earners, it’s worth asking whether you can build a city that way either.

Could Macron and Brexit make France Europe’s tech capital? 🇫🇷

Source: Could Macron and Brexit make Paris Europe’s tech capital?

FRANCE 24

Date created : 13/04/2019 – 18:14Latest update : 15/04/2019 – 08:23

Ludovic Marin/AFP | French President Emmanuel Macron speaks as he visits the start-up campus Station F on October 9, 2018.

This article’s original headline and content focused only on a very large, high profile startup incubator in Paris, but frankly, there is a lot more going on in other parts of France as well.

Text by:Charlotte WILKINS

Shortly after his election in May 2017, President Macron said he wanted France itself “to think and move like a start-up” – a vision of the country’s digital future that is gaining traction as Britain wrestles with Brexit.

French President Emmanuel Macron’s vow to make France a ‘start-up nation’ amid the uncertainty over Brexitis raising the question of whether Paris could supplant London as the capital of European tech.

Since his election, Macron has wooed tech entrepreneurs with a string of initiatives in the form of lavish tax breaks, subsidies, and credits for research. In March 2018, he promised to invest €1.5 billion into artificial intelligence research through 2022.

Some of these initiatives, in addition to Macron’s dynamism, have lured British tech companies who are looking to gain a foothold in Europe.

“It made sense to have a European base,” said Cedric Jones*, a Briton who recently launched a start-up at Station F, the cavernous old train station that is now home to the world’s largest start-up campus. “If I’m going to make waves in continental Europe… I wanted to get here before Brexit happened.”

Jones is among dozens of foreign entrepreneurs who have recently launched their start-up at Station F, whose 3,000 desk hub has seen spiraling applications from English-speaking nationals in the last two years.

Some cite political woes back home, the burgeoning French tech sector, or are inspired by Macron’s bid to make Paris the innovation heart of Europe.

“There’s an air of optimism and a can-do spirit in France that I feel we’ve lost somewhat in the US,” said Mark Heath, a New Yorker, who stayed on in France to launch a start-up after studying at INSEAD in 2017.

The Macron effect

Much of the investment in French tech predates Macron’s reforms. The state investment bank Bpifrance, launched by former French president François Hollande in 2013, has been widely credited with developing the sector. Hollande also set up new foreign visas for start-up entrepreneurs.

But Zahir Bouchaary, a Briton who works out of Station F, credits Macron with injecting dynamism into the sector.

“Macron has installed a [start-up] mentality within the French ecosystem itself,” said Bouchaary, adding that it has become much easier to do business in France in the last few years.

“French customers are a lot more willing to work with start-ups than they were before,” said Bouchaary. “France was a very conservative country and our clients were used to working with big old-fashioned companies that have been around for a while. For the past few years, they’ve opened up a lot more to working with younger companies and seem to take more risks than they did before.”

Jones agreed that Macron was “the single variable”. “When he [Macron] goes, the dynamism will go too. I absolutely would not expect that to remain the case if he’s not the president.”

However, although Macron has moved to ease labour laws, Jones said that navigating the country’s labyrinthine bureaucracy in French remained “very burdensome”, and that it was far easier to build a business in the UK. “Whether it’s from a tax perspective or from a legal perspective it’s just so much more complicated.”

UK tech ‘resilient’

The tech scene in London appears to be just as vibrant as ever, explained Albin Serviant, president of Frenchtech in London, who said many UK-based tech entrepreneurs are adopting a “wait and see” approach to Brexit.

“The UK ecosystem is quite resilient,” said Serviant.

“In the first quarter of 2019, there were about €2 billion invested in tech in London. That’s compared to 1.5 billion last year, which is plus 30 percent. And that’s twice as much as France – which invested 1 billion. France is catching up very fast but the investment money is still flowing in the UK,” he added.

Serviant cited London’s business-friendly ecosystem and international talent pool as reasons for why London remains the capital of the European tech sector. Barcelona and Berlin are also contenders for the UK’s tech start-up crown.

Nonetheless, Serviant cautioned against the effects that a hard Brexit would have on the tech sector in the UK.

“‘If Brexit happens in a bad way and if people like me and other entrepreneurs have to leave, obviously that’s very bad for the UK because what makes it very different is the international DNA of London.”

Hard Brexit would not just damage the UK tech sector but would also pose challenges for British developers, who post-Brexit may need a carte de séjour to work in the country, looking to find work in France.

Sarah Pedroza, co-managing director of Hello Tomorrow technologies, a Paris-based startup NGO, said that if she had to choose between hiring a British national and an EU citizen with the same skillset, she would opt for an EU citizen because there would be less paperwork involved.

Brexit aside, others suggest that France is snapping at the UK’s technological heels.

“I do think France has the potential under Macron to close the gap with the UK,” said Jones.

“The single biggest factor in what’s going on for France is that France is developing a sense of confidence in itself, in its start-up scene, as a tech hub, that’s being helped by France and that’s also being helped by Brexit.”

Mayo615’s Odyssey to France: Week 1 Update

Welcome to Mayo615’s Odyssey to France and the first of our Tuesday weekly updates

We invite you to subscribe to our YouTube Channel and to follow our weekly updates

In this Week One update we will focus on my first Big Idea, and how I achieved it.  I will also discuss my three most important key takeaways from that experience. We hope that you find this video helpful in achieving your own Big Ideas and goals. So here we go.

See The Launch Of The MAYO615 YouTube Channel Trailer Here

 

The launch of the Mayo615 YouTube Channel Trailer

 

 

On this YouTube Channel, we will share our Big Idea: our personal goal and invite you to participate with us, share your comments and questions and perhaps motivate you to achieve your own Big Idea. We will post an update on our project every Tuesday. We invite your comments and questions about your own Big Idea while you follow ours. We will both reply to all comments and will feature the best questions in our YouTube update videos each week.

So click SUBSCRIBE and let’s get started!

 

 

 

 

Help Us Return Home to France to Mentor Entrepreneurs: Fundrazr Campaign 🇫🇷

In less than 24 hours since our campaign launch, we are nearing 10% of our goal

 

Link to our FundRazr Campaign: Please Help Us Return to Home to France to Mentor Entrepreneurs/Startups

I am a native-born Californian with French family heritage and a French wife. We are both French citizens preparing to return to France. My university background is in the Humanities and Social Sciences, with a year of graduate study at Oxford University, researching in the Bodleian Library. When I returned to northern California, I eventually landed an entry-level job at Intel Corporation, which proved to be the crucible for my entire career. I eventually rose to be a senior executive in international business development with Intel. I have continued in international business for all of my career, working for a number of tech startups and venture capital investment firms over the years. I have led two tech industry consortia to develop global industry standards. I have been the director of a tech entrepreneurial incubator in Silicon Valley for the government of New Zealand and collaborated on mentoring promising entrepreneurs in locations here and around the world. I was an Adjunct Professor of Management at the University of British Columbia for four years.

I want to return to France to give back my experience, skills, and technical knowledge to the country of my heritage. France’s industrial economy is in the doldrums, but new policies are stimulating innovation, the key to economic growth and productivity, and technology industry leaders in France with strong technology industry backgrounds are looking to contribute to this new economy in France. I want to join them and give back.

I am now semi-retired, but very eager to return permanently to France to donate my technology industry experience and knowledge to assist French entrepreneurs to transform France into an innovation-based economy.

FundRazr Campaign Story:

We are David Mayes and Isabelle Roux-Mayes, a married couple, who are also French citizens. I am also a native Californian who has spent my career working for a number of Silicon Valley companies and investment firms, beginning with Intel Corporation. I am now semi-retired, but very eager to return permanently to France to donate my technology industry experience and knowledge to assist French entrepreneurs to transform France into an innovation-based economy. I am focusing specifically on building working relationships with three major new initiatives that could benefit from my background and achievements:    The Camp in Aix-en-Provence, launched last year, Startup Garage, Paris, and 1kubator in Bourdeaux.

I am more than happy to share my achievements and references to validate my credentials and verify my ability to make a serious contribution. You can start here with my LinkedIn profile and references David Mayes on LinkedIn.  You may also contact me here or on FundRazr where we can discuss my crowdfunding project.

Updating My Smartphone Market Analysis: The Market Is At A Strategic Inflection Point

NOTE: My original post, originally published in January 2013, continues to be one of the most viewed on the site.  Android and Apple have enjoyed an estimated 98% market share between the two, and many of my earlier projections regarding this market appear to have been borne out. However, the smartphone market has now matured to the point that it is at a strategic inflection point which has major implications for the future of this market and the major competitors. 

The Rapid Maturation of the Smartphone Market Should Have Been Foreseen

The signs of a dangerous strategic inflection point in the global smartphone market have been evident for some time: the rapid rise of domestic Chinese competition combined with the predictable end of the Western consumer fascination with “the next smartphone.” Five years ago, Samsung Electronics, the South Korean technology giant sat atop the Chinese market, selling nearly one of every five devices there. Today, Samsung is an also-ran, controlling less than 1% of the world’s largest smartphone market. Samsung has trimmed local staff and last month closed one of its two Chinese smartphone factories.  Surely, Apple must have been aware of this and the growing number of much lower cost domestic Chinese competitors that were already hammering Samsung.  Apple’s release of a lower cost iPhone, the XR, in Asia in October 2018 appears to have been a case of too little too late. Sales of the device have been disappointing in both Japan and China, and Apple has been relegated to offering “trade-ins” to camouflage slashing the price of the XR.  Apple had ample warning over at least a five year period.

Meanwhile, I sensed a very different kind of maturation of the smartphone market in North America and Europe. In what I like to call the smartphone market “Star Wars” phenomenon, each new generation of smartphones was greeted with a hysteria that was only paralleled by the Star Wars craze. This simply could not continue indefinitely.  Beginning in 2017 it was apparent the smartphone market as a whole was already shrinking, and there was significant anecdotal information in the media that smartphone hysteria was waning, if not publicly available hard data. I began having discussions about this with Tim Bajarin, one of the top Apple analysts.  As Apple moved to launch the iPhone X and broke the $1000 price point barrier it encountered clear if perhaps not overwhelming evidence that the smartphone market was softening: more people chose not to upgrade their phones. I like to say that the last major feature consumers seemed to want/need was water resistance, as so many had already experienced the disastrous “toilet drop.”  I view the Bluetooth earbud phenomenon as a distraction and perhaps a hint of the coming change. Samsung flirted with water resistance as early as the Samsung Galaxy S5, perhaps because water resistance had become a standard feature in the Japanese market. By 2018, water resistance was standardized, and the market began experimenting with “the next big thing” for phones, folding screens. WTF? It was clear to me that the smartphone market had run out of gas, and was undergoing rapid maturation, as phones were no longer fascinating and novel, but just simply commodity devices.

To my mind, and IMHO, this has been a case study in a classic “strategic inflection point” that was missed by both Samsung and Apple. Samsung might be forgiven for being the first to cross into the inflection point, while the media was still promoting “the next smartphone” hysteria, and not yet recognizing the sense of the market. Apple has no such excuse. The rapid maturation of the smartphone market should have been foreseen by Apple. Apple’s most disturbing move was the decision to increase pricing rather than delivering greater value, at exactly the wrong time. The crucial rhetorical question is what are the larger implications for Apple’s future business?

READ MORE:  Apple Beware: Samsung’s Fall in China Was Swift 

READ MORE: Samsung Profit Outlook Surprisingly Weak

 

Vendor Data Overview

Smartphone vendors shipped a total of 355.6 million units worldwide during the third quarter of 2018 (Q3 2018), resulting in a 5.9% decline when compared to the 377.8 million units shipped in the third quarter of 2017. The drop marks the fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year declines for the global smartphone market. 

Quarter	2017Q1	2017Q2	2017Q3	2017Q4	2018Q1	2018Q2	2018Q3
Samsung	23,2%	22,9%	22,1%	18,9%	23,5%	21,0%	20,3%
Huawei	10,0%	11,0%	10,4%	10,7%	11,8%	15,9%	14,6%
Apple	14,7%	11,8%	12,4%	19,6%	15,7%	12,1%	13,2%
Xiaomi	4,3%	6,2%	7,5%	7,1%	8,4%	9,5%	9,5%
OPPO	7,5%	8,0%	8,1%	6,9%	7,4%	8,6%	8,4%
Others	40,2%	40,1%	39,6%	36,8%	33,2%	32,9%	33,9%
TOTAL	100,0%	100,0%	100,0%	100,0%	100,0%	100,0%	100,0%

 

 

 

2009 to 2012

In one of the most interesting high tech scenarios in years, the “smart mobile” OS (operating system) market is shaping up to be a classic Battle of the Titans. Key strategic issues, theories, speculation, and money, lots of it, are making this a great real-time strategy and marketing case study for management students of all ages (smile).  So as Dell prepares to fade into the sunset, get yourself a drink of your choice, and some popcorn, sit back and watch it all unfold.

The best metaphor I can apply to this might be a “destruction derby” featuring at least two players,  or perhaps a bizarre multidimensional Super Bowl or Rugby World Cup match, with four teams on one playing field with four goal posts at each cardinal point of the compass..  At the moment all four teams are tackling, passing, and running at each other in a confused pile. There are scrums, rucks and mauls in multiple locations. Two competitors, Google and Apple appear to be winning. The other two, Microsoft and Research in Motion, are pretty banged up, but still playing.

The two currently dominant competitors, Google Android with its acquisition of Motorola Mobility, and Apple IOS are rapidly consolidating and expanding their global market positions, via partnerships, vertical integration, and application development ecosystems. Microsoft has publicly committed to spending massively to make Windows 8 the third OS option, but a recent IDC mobile OS market forecast projects Microsoft with only a miniscule share in 2015.  Something tells me that Steve Ballmer will go on a rampage if that happens, rather like the video of him screaming and dancing on stage in my post “Extrovert or Introvert, Authentic Presentations Take Practice,” November 30th. http://mayo615.com/2012/11/30/introvert-or-extrovert-authentic-presentations-take-practice/

The key question is whether Microsoft or RIM, will be able to establish a third mobile OS to a survivable market position.  It is not at all clear that either can do so at this point.  The market is also speculating that mobile hardware market leader Samsung, is possibly considering making its own play by creating its own mobile OS ecosystem.  While this may seem far fetched, this kind of vertical integration seems to be making a resurgence as a strategic move, after having been discredited.  Then there is the perennial Nokia, who has seemed to be on death’s door, but may be coming back. As a strategic partner for Microsoft, Nokia’s fate may have a huge bearing on Microsoft’s strategy to reinvent itself as the PC goes into atrial fibrillation. Will Amazon enter the fray with its own smart phone entrant, and if so, with whose OS?  Will Research in Motion and the Blackberry be able to achieve a survivable market share, or is RIM already a walking zombie?

Finally, in a kind of death dance patent dispute reminiscent of the film, Gladiator, Nokia and RIM are now locked in new lawsuits and counter-lawsuits, as if to say, “If neither of us are going to survive, we might as well kill each other for the entertainment value.”

Here’s a more concise overview of the race to be the third mobile platform:

• The argument in favor of a third platform is straightforward and compelling: A new, robust competitor will prevent the dominant platforms from growing complacent or stifling innovation. Apple and Google are pretty happy with the status quo. Consumers are probably not consciously pining for a third mobile platform. Developers would happily get behind a third platform if it widened their revenue streams.
• Microsoft has a head start: It launched Windows Phone in 2010, and tablet-friendly Windows 8 this year. It is experienced in building developer communities. However, Windows Phone has so far only managed a paltry 3 percent platform market share.
• Amazon has the most potential to upend the market: A smartphone would be a natural extension of Amazon’s distribution empire, and its Kindle Fire tablet play. Unfortunately, the most recent E-reader forecasts show them in sharp decline as growth in full-functional tablets squeeze them out.  Amazon has 106 million unique visitors accessing its sites, many of them with credit cards on file. 
• Samsung is a dark horse: Its dependency on Android may become a liability and push the South Korean manufacturer into the platform business. Samsung’s strength is its hardware sales prowess — Samsung shipped over 56 million smartphones in the third quarter of 2012. 

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/bii-report-the-race-to-be-the-third-mobile-platform-2013-1#ixzz2IepLaaka

For Management students, this real time case study offers the opportunity to apply and ponder:

1. The time tested 1976 Boston Consulting Group (Bruce Henderson) “rule of three and four.”  In a stable mature market there can be no more than three surviving competitors, the largest of which can have no more than four times the share of the smallest of the three.   Here, the question is whether a third competitor can successfully emerge at all?

2. Barriers to market entry. Former Intel Marketing VP, Bill Davidow‘s book, Marketing High Technology, An Insider’s View, still considered the standard on the topic, suggested his own metric for a barrier to a new market entrant, or even a competitor just struggling to survive the market shakeout. The market entry barrier rule of thumb in dollars is three-quarters the most recent annual revenue of the market leader. In this case, that is a very big B number…  Microsoft has the bucks, but is it just too late?

3. Vertical integration. Rumors of Samsung introducing its own mobile OS seem implausible, but hey Nvidia just announced its own gaming console to compete with Microsoft, Nintendo, and Sony.

4. Resources and capabilities. It is necessary to consider the respective resources and capabilities of each of the many direct players, and those playing in related markets that bear on the mobile OS market.

5. Related markets, new markets, peripherally involved competitors and products which all could play a role in the eventual outcome of this. The integrated Internet HDTV market is only one example. Featuring Apple, Microsoft, Google, and Samsung, and the HDTV manufacturers, it could influence things.  What if Amazon were to vertically integrate and introduce its own smart phone?

This is the hairball of this Century so far.  Are you all still with me, here?

Richard Florida Writes That Canada Is Losing The Global Innovation Race – Globe and Mail

Canadian Venture Investment Is In Decline

Canada’s investment in R & D Has Been Anemic For Decades Compared to OECD Nations

U.S. Tech Giants Are Exploiting Canada’s Talent Base At The Expense of Canadian Startups

My long-time business partner and I, one of us in Canada and the other in Silicon Valley, last year launched a business targeted at bringing immigrant entrepreneurs to Canada, Vendange Partners. http://www.vendangepartners.com.  We spent months analyzing and investigating the Canadian entrepreneurial ecosystem, particularly Vancouver and Toronto, Canadian immigration policy, and the Canadian venture capital industry. What we found was very concerning. Last December, I wrote a blog post here detailing our findings (read more below) that Canada was nowhere close to being the next Silicon Valley. With regard to venture capital, we found that there was a lack of adequate risk capital, which could be traced to deeply rooted conservative values in the Canadian financial industry. Immigration policy was a mixed bag, with a “startup” visa program that had become a magnet for immigration scams.  Despite these disadvantages, we decided to press ahead, and are making progress.

That said, I was very interested yesterday to read the article in the Globe & Mail by University of Toronto Professor Richard Florida, and Ian Hathaway, Research Director for the Center for  American Entrepreneurship, and Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institute. The article by Florida and Hathaway draws the same conclusions as my research, providing even more precise data to support their disturbing conclusions. It is not hard to find many additional articles on these issues.  Ironically, also yesterday, a LinkedIn connection shared a post by Sciences, Innovation, and Economic Development Canada with a very upbeat, positive assessment of venture capital for startups in Canada. This is the essence of the problem. Since I came to Canada years ago now, I have seen a pollyannaish state of denial about the true situation for entrepreneurship, immigration policy, and the lack of “smart” venture capital for Canadian startups. No amount of counter-evidence has changed this mistaken rosy outlook. Without a recognition of these problems, nothing will change.

 

READ MORE: Canada Woos Tech Startups But Canada Is Not Silicon Valley December 20, 2017, mayo615.com blog post

OPINION

RICHARD FLORIDA AND IAN HATHAWAY

SPECIAL TO THE GLOBE AND MAIL

UPDATED NOVEMBER 2, 2018

Solving Canada’s startup dilemma

Source: Solving Canada’s startup dilemma – The Globe and Mail 

Canada, we increasingly hear, is becoming a global leader in high-tech innovation and entrepreneurship. Report after report has ranked Toronto, Waterloo, and Vancouver among the world’s most up-and-coming tech hubs. Toronto placed fourth in a ranking of North American tech talent this past summer, behind only the San Francisco Bay Area, Seattle, and Washington, and in 2017 its metro area added more tech jobs than those other three city-regions combined.

All of that is true, but the broader trends provide little reason for complacency. Indeed, our detailed analysis of more than 100,000 startup investments around the world paints a more sobering picture. Canada and its leading cities have seen a substantial rise in their venture capital investments. But both the country and its urban centres have lost ground to global competitors, even as the United States’ position in global start-ups has faltered.

Overall, Canada ranks fifth among countries in the number of venture capital deals and sixth in venture capital investment, trailing only the United States, India, China, Britain, and Germany. That said, Canada’s share of the world’s venture capital investment is tiny, just 1.5 percent. And it has actually declined over the past decade and a half.

But start-ups and entrepreneurship are a local phenomenon: They happen in urban areas. The good news is that a dozen or so of Canada’s cities make the list of the world’s 300-plus startup hubs. And the three largest of them – Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver – rank among the world’s 62 leading global startup hubs.

Toronto, Canada’s top-ranked startup hub, is the only Canadian city to crack the list of the world’s top 25 startup cities. Vancouver and Montreal are in the top 50. Kitchener-Waterloo leads all Canadian cities in venture capital investment per capita, ranking 26th globally on that measure. It and Ottawa also rank among the world’s top 100 startup hubs in terms of capital invested, and Calgary is among the top 150.

The not-so-good news is that Canada and its startup cities are losing ground to startup hubs such as New York and London; Beijing and Shanghai; Bangalore and Mumbai; Berlin, Amsterdam, Stockholm, and Tel Aviv.

More worrying, Canada is failing to take advantage of the United States’ weakening position, which is attributable in part to its tighter immigration policies. While the U.S. continues to generate the largest amount of startup and venture capital activity, its share of the global total has been falling steadily, from more than 95 percent in the mid-1990s to about two-thirds in 2012, and a little more than half today. But the country that has gained the most ground is China, which now attracts nearly a quarter of global venture capital investment.

Exactly why Canada is lagging is unclear. A growing number of Canadian commentators suggest that the influx of large U.S. and Asian tech firms into Canada is sucking up tech talent that would have otherwise gone to local start-ups. But companies like Microsoft and Google are such powerful talent magnets that they are more likely to increase the overall supply. After all, San Francisco, New York, and London are homes to some of the biggest tech companies in the world, and they are also leading startup hubs.

Perhaps the brunt of Donald Trump’s anti-immigration policies has yet to be fully felt. Maybe it is because New York and the San Francisco Bay Area are close enough to lure Canadian entrepreneurs away, or maybe we are just not as entrepreneurial as we like to think.

Whatever the cause, Canada and its leading tech hubs must do more to grow their ecosystems, which already enjoy such clear advantages in talent, especially in the field of artificial intelligence, and their openness to immigration. Given the role that innovation and start-ups play in propelling economic growth and raising living standards, our economic future depends on it.

Richard Florida is University Professor at the University of Toronto’s School of Cities and the Rotman School of Management. Ian Hathaway is Research Director of the Center for American Entrepreneurship and a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. They are authors of the Rise of the Global Startup City, released earlier this month.

READ MORE: Rise of The Global Startup City

Financial Times ranks UBC Sauder’s Master of Management program #1 in North America

 

Source: Financial Times ranks UBC Sauder’s Master of Management program #1 in North America | UBC Sauder School of Business, Vancouver, Canada

September 10, 2018

Tagged: 

All News, Master of Management, Press Release

The Financial Times, one of the world’s most influential business news outlets, has ranked UBC Sauder’s Master of Management (MM) the leading program of its kind in North America for 2018. Offered by the school’s Robert H. Lee Graduate School, the nine-month MM gives recent non-business graduates the skills they need to gain a competitive edge in the job market.

Published today, the annual “Global Masters in Management Ranking” placed the UBC Sauder’s MM program 1st in North America, up from 2nd in 2017, and 49th in the world, up from 58th in the world last year. Among the ranking’s highlights, the UBC Sauder program stood out for the career success of its students, with 95 percent of grads achieving full-time employment within three months of graduation.

Developed to address the evolving needs of today’s most innovative employers, the MM curriculum provides students with a vital grounding in a broad spectrum of business and management disciplines, from accounting to finance and marketing to strategic management. Students are coached to meet their career goals and connected with opportunities in organizations in Vancouver and around the globe.

UBC Sauder’s MM program is consistently ranked among the best in the world and has ranked as the number one program in North America five out of the past six years.

Industry Analysis: The Bigger Picture

by David Mayes on Jul 19, 2013

Industry analysis is not a well-understood discipline. It sits between macroeconomic analysis and market analysis and uses tools from both. It is most commonly associated with the financial services industry which produces guides for their investors. But there are also large global consultancy firms that specialize in industry analysis.   It is an important tool for governments, regional development agencies. Companies use industry analysts to assist in their strategic planning. Those who can anticipate the changes in an industry are more likely to be successful.  This brief presentation provides an overview of what industry analysis is, examples of industry analysis in action, and why it is so important.

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Industry Analysis: the bigger picture.  Presentation Transcript

• 1. Industry Analysis: The Bigger Picture July 2013 ©David Mayes 1
• 2. Industry Analysis: The Bigger Picture David Mayes, Lecturer ©David Mayes 2
• 3. Introduction 1. Lecturer Introduction 2. What is Industry Analysis? 3. Why Industry Analysis? 4. Suggested Reading Industry Analysis: The Bigger Picture ©David Mayes 3
• 4. Lecturer Introduction ©David Mayes 4 Industry Analysis: The Bigger Picture
• 5. Industry Analysis Lecturer Introduction David Mayes: LinkedIn Profile: http://www.linkedin.com/in/mayo615 Google+ Profile: https://plus.google.com/u/0/118299264663896711410/about Email: david.mayes@ubc.ca mayo0615@gmail.com UBC Office: EME 4157 (250) 807-9331 Hours: Thurs. 12PM – 2PM or by appt. Cellular: (250) 864-9552 Twitter: @mayo615 Experience: Executive management, access to venture capital, international business development, sales & marketing, entrepreneurial mentorship, technology assessment, strategic planning, renewable energytechnology. Intel Corporation, 01 Computers Group (UK) Ltd., Mobile Data International, Silicon Graphics, Sun Microsystems, Ascend Communications, P-Cube, Global Internet Group LLP, New Zealand Trade & Enterprise. ©David Mayes 5
• 6. Introduction 1. Instructor Introduction 2. What is Industry Analysis? 3. Why Industry Analysis? 4. Suggested Reading ©David Mayes 6 Industry Analysis: The Bigger Picture
• 7. What is Industry Analysis? ©David Mayes 7 Industry Analysis: The Bigger Picture
• 8. Industry Analysis What is Industry Analysis? A Proposed Definition of Industry Analysis: Industry analysis looks at long-term trends and forces that affect an overall industry. It is a strategic analysis tool used by governments, economic development agencies, financial services & investment firms, management consultancy firms, and businesses. Current estimates and future industry projections may include consideration of a broad range of global and local factors: economic, supply and demand, individual competitors, other external future forecasts, and government policy affecting the industry. Industry analysis is commonly performed within the framework of macro- economic analysis as well as market analysis theories and tools. ©David Mayes 8
• 9. Industry Analysis What is Industry Analysis? Industry Analysis As A Discipline: • Best known in the financial services industry • Industry performance & forecast guides for investors • High profile industry analysis consultancy firms • IDC, Gartner, Forrester, dozens of others in vertical markets • Used as a strategic planning tool by companies • “How to” guides/textbooks very limited, but masses of primary statistics and reports • Seen as between macro-economics and market research ©David Mayes 9
• 10. Macro Economy: Global, Regional, National An Industry: Global, Regional, National A Market: Can Be Industry Sub- segment(s) Competitor(s) Us Industry Analysis What is Industry Analysis? Hierarchy of Economic Analysis OUR FOCUS ©David Mayes 10
• 11. Industry Analysis What is Industry Analysis? IDC Forecasts Worldwide Semiconductor Revenues Will Reach $305 Billion in 2012 IDC Forecasts Worldwide Semiconductor Revenues Will Reach $305 Billion in 2012 Business Wire FRAMINGHAM, Mass. — December 15, 2011 “Despite the continuing global macroeconomic problems, semiconductor inventory overbuild early this year, and current DRAM oversupply, semiconductor revenues will register positive year-over-year (YoY) growth of 3.4% and 3.1% with $296billion and $305 billion for 2011 and 2012, respectively, according to the year-end 2011 update of IDC’s Semiconductor Application Forecaster (SAF).”The 2011 year-end update reaffirms the views IDC expressed in its qualitative SAF update published in November 2011….” Yada yada yada… Full Report Price: $1,000, other reports up to $10,000 Industry Analysis Example ©David Mayes 11
• 12. Industry Analysis What is Industry Analysis? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31SpS3 6ynDs&hd=1 Semiconductor Industry Analysis: Intel Cuts 2012 Outlook on Hard Drive Shortage (Flood in Thailand) ©David Mayes 12
• 13. Industry Analysis What is Industry Analysis? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=- I50V4PO1y4&feature=g- wl&context=G25b6f51AWAAAAAAAAAA Information Technology Industry Analysis: Samsung Economic Research Institute ©David Mayes 13
• 14. Industry Analysis What is Industry Analysis? http://www.economist.com/node/21541746 The Economist on Video Gaming: World of Warcraft vs. New Market Entrants ©David Mayes 14
• 15. Industry Analysis What is Industry Analysis? http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xblts0_in dustry-analyst-jesse-divnich-on- v_videogames Video Gaming Analyst Jesse Divnich on the Video Games Industry ©David Mayes 15
• 16. Industry Analysis What is Industry Analysis? Answer: Huge consumption of microprocessors for game consoles “Over the past two decades the video-games business has gone from a cottage industry selling to a few niche customers to a fully grown branch of the entertainment industry. According to PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC): • Global video-game market worth around $56 billion last year. • More than twice the size of the recorded-music industry • Three-fifths the size of the film industry, Including DVD sales Video games will be the fastest-growing form of media over the next few years, with sales rising to $82 billion by 2015.” — The Economist. December 10th, 2011 How Does The Video Games Market Relate to the Semiconductor Industry? ©David Mayes 16
• 17. Industry Analysis What is Industry Analysis? Leading Industries in Canada (GDP): • Aerospace (5th largest in the World) • Agri-food (4th largest exporter) • Automotive (3rd largest exporter in World) Leading Industries in British Columbia (GDP): • Construction • Manufacturing (?) • Mining & Gas Extraction Leading Industries in the Thompson Okanagan (GDP): • Construction • Manufacturing • Services (retail, tourism, etc.) Key Industries in Canada ©David Mayes 17
• 18. Questions? What is Industry Analysis? ©David Mayes 18
• 19. Industry Analysis 1. Instructor Introduction 2. What is Industry Analysis? 3. Why Industry Analysis? 4. Suggested Reading ©David Mayes 19 Industry Analysis: The Bigger Picture
• 20. Industry Analysis Why Industry Analysis? ANSWER: Large scale economic shifts caused by demographic, geographic, political, technological and social changes can create new opportunities or can lead to the demise of a company. Competitors that can anticipate these large-scale economic shifts are more likely to survive. Why Industry Analysis? ©David Mayes 20
• 21. Industry Analysis Why Industry Analysis? • Government Policy • Taxation, incentives, international export market development • Focused Economic Development Programs • Which industries should be promoted? • Example: New Zealand Trade & Enterprise* • Institutional/Individual Investment Management • Tracking Industry Trends and Growth • Management Consultancy Firms • Strategic Business Decisions on Markets • Individual businesses Why Industry Analysis? ©David Mayes 21
• 22. Industry Analysis Why Industry Analysis? • Federal, Provincial Ministries & Economic Development Agencies • Canadian Ministries of Industry and International Trade • BC Ministry of Energy, Mines and Petroleum • Central Okanagan Regional Development • Financial Services and Investment Firms • BMO, CIBC, RBC, TD Canada Trust, credit unions • Stock brokerages • Financial news networks • Management Consultancy Firms • Accenture, BCG, HP, IBM, PWC, Forrester, Gartner, IDC • Businesses • Executive management, strategic planning units • Corporate positioning, SWOT, long range planning Who Conducts and Uses Industry Analysis? ©David Mayes 22
• 23. Industry Analysis Why Industry Analysis? Example: New Zealand Trade & Enterprise Marketing an Entire Nation as an Industry http://www.nzte.govt.nz/Pages/default.aspx http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eh-0knDpn5g ©David Mayes 23
• 24. Industry Analysis Why Industry Analysis? Example: International Data Corporation (IDC) http://www.idc.com/prodserv/maps/consumer.jsp ©David Mayes 24
• 25. Industry Analysis Why Industry Analysis? Example: Central Okanagan Economic Development Commission http://investkelowna.com/ ©David Mayes 25
• 26. Questions? Why Industry Analysis? ©David Mayes 26
• 27. Industry Analysis 1. Instructor Introduction 2. What is Industry Analysis? 3. Why Industry Analysis? 4. Suggested Reading ©David Mayes 27 Industry Analysis: The Bigger Picture
• 28. Industry Analysis Suggested Reading: Suggested Reading: HBR’s 10 Must Reads on Strategy, Harvard Business Press, 2011 (HBR article anthology). Blue Ocean vs. Five Forces, Burke, A.E. (HBR journal article, online) http://toby.library.ubc.ca/subjects/subjpage2.cfm?id=660 How to Conduct An Industry Analysis, Small Business and Technology Development Center, http://www.sbtdc.org/pdf/industry_analysis.pdf ©David Mayes 28
• 29. ©David Mayes 29