Internet of Things At A Strategic Inflection Point

This post focuses on a particularly important technology market, the Internet of Things. IoT is at a strategic inflection point, due to explosive projected market growth and unresolved problems of wireless data throughput and energy-efficiency needs. The IoT market is projected to grow to 75 Billion devices by 2025. This growth is predicated on very high throughput wireless networks combined with high energy-efficiency which are not yet available.  Existing wireless technologies, including 5G, will not meet this market need. Also, the extreme diversity of IoT applications will require both small sensors that operate using minimal energy and bandwidth and virtual reality applications with very high Gigabit per second data rates and substantial power requirements.


IoT Technology And Market Requirements Convergence

Current Long-Term Market Projections Are Based On The Emergence Of Technology Solutions

This Mayo615 YouTube Channel video focuses on a particularly important technology market, the Internet of Things. IoT is at a strategic inflection point, due to explosive projected market growth and unresolved problems of wireless data throughput and energy-efficiency needs. The IoT market is projected to grow to 75 Billion devices by 2025. This growth is predicated on very high throughput wireless networks combined with high energy-efficiency which are not yet available.  Existing wireless technologies, including 5G, will not meet this market need. Also, the extreme diversity of IoT applications will require both small sensors that operate using minimal energy and bandwidth and virtual reality applications with very high Gigabit per second data rates and substantial power requirements. For example, Intel estimates that one autonomous vehicle will generate 4 Terabytes of data daily.

The good news is that through my work evaluating advanced research proposals in IoT, I can report that a solution may already be at the laboratory “proof of concept” stage.

The proposed solution that is emerging is the development of innovative software-hardware architectures in which all network layers are jointly designed, combining a millimeter wave high-throughput wireless network and a battery-free wireless network into a single integrated wireless solution.

This is no small feat of engineering but it does appear to be feasible. There are many challenges to successfully demonstrating a millimeter wave wireless network integrated with the Tesla-like concept of radio-wave backscatter energy harvesting. However, collaboration among universities and large Internet companies’ research units are nearing the demonstration of such a network. The likely horizon for this becoming an industry standard is probably three to five years, with prototype products appearing sooner.

You can also read my earlier website posts on the Internet of Things here on mayo615.com.  Links to related posts on IoT are also shown below on this post.

Integration of AI, IoT and Big Data: The Intelligent Assistant

Five years ago, I wrote a post on this blog disparaging the state of the Internet of Things/home automation market as a “Tower of Proprietary Babble.” Vendors of many different home and industrial product offerings were literally speaking different languages, making their products inoperable with other complementary products from other vendors.  The market was being constrained by its immaturity and a failure to grasp the importance of open standards. A 2017 Verizon report concluded that “an absence of industry-wide standards…represented greater than 50% of executives concerns about IoT. Today I can report that finally, the solutions and technologies are beginning to come together, albeit still slowly. 


The Evolution of These Technologies Is Clearer

The IoT Tower of Proprietary Babble Is Slowly Crumbling

The Rise of the Intelligent Assistant

Five years ago, I wrote a post on this blog disparaging the state of the Internet of Things/home automation market as a “Tower of Proprietary Babble.” Vendors of many different home and industrial product offerings were literally speaking different languages, making their products inoperable with other complementary products from other vendors.  The market was being constrained by its immaturity and a failure to grasp the importance of open standards. A 2017 Verizon report concluded that “an absence of industry-wide standards…represented greater than 50% of executives concerns about IoT.” Today I can report that finally, the solutions and technologies are beginning to come together, albeit still slowly. 

 

One of the most important factors influencing these positive developments has been the recognition of the importance of this technology area by major corporate players and a large number of entrepreneurial companies funded by venture investment, as shown in the infographic above. Amazon, for example, announced in October 2018 that it has shipped over 100 Million Echo devices, which effectively combine an intelligent assistant, smart hub, and a large-scale database of information. This does not take into account the dozens of other companies which have launched their own entries. I like to point to Philips Hue as such an example of corporate strategic focus perhaps changing the future corporate prospects of Philips, based in Eindhoven in the Netherlands. I have visited Philips HQ, a company trying to evolve from the incandescent lighting market. Two years ago my wife bought me a Philips Hue WiFi controlled smart lighting starter kit. My initial reaction was disbelief that it would succeed. I am eating crow on that point, as I now control my lighting using Amazon’s Alexa and the Philips Hue smart hub. The rise of the “intelligent assistant” seems to have been a catalyst for growth and convergence. 

The situation with proprietary silos of offerings that do not work well or at all with other offerings is still frustrating, but slowly evolving. Amazon Firestick’s browser is its own awkward “Silk” or alternatively Firefox, but excluding Google’s Chrome for alleged competitive advantage. When I set up my Firestick, I had to ditch Chromecast because I only have so many HDMI ports. Alexa works with Spotify but only in one room as dictated by Spotify. Alexa can play music from Amazon Music or Sirius/XM on all Echo devices without the Spotify limitation. Which brings me to another point of aggravation: alleged Smart TV’s. Not only are they not truly “smart,” they are proprietary silos of their own, so “intelligent assistant” smart hubs do not work with “smart” TV’s. Samsung, for example, has its own competing intelligent assistant, Bixby, so of course, only Bixby can control a Samsung TV. I watched one of those YouTube DIY videos on how you could make your TV work with Alexa using third-party software and remotes. Trust me, you do not want to go there. But cracks are beginning to appear that may lead to a flood of openness. Samsung just announced at CES that beginning in 2019 its Smart TV’s will work with Amazon Echo and Google Home, and that a later software update will likely enable older Samsung TV’s to work with Echo and Home. However, Bixby will still control the remote.  Other TV’s from manufacturers like Sony and LG have worked with intelligent assistants for some time. 

The rise of an Internet of Everything Everywhere, the recognition of the need for greater data communication bandwidth, and battery-free wireless IoT sensors are heating up R&D labs everywhere. Keep in mind that I am focusing on the consumer side, and have not even mentioned the rising demands from industrial applications.  Intel has estimated that autonomous vehicles will transmit up to 4 Terabytes of data daily. AR and VR applications will require similar throughput. Existing wireless data communication technologies, including 5G LTE, cannot address this need. In addition, an exploding need for IoT sensors not connected to an electrical power source will require more work in the area of “energy harvesting.” Energy harvesting began with passive RFID, and by using kinetic, pizeo, and thermoelectric energy and converting it into a battery-free electrical power source for sensors. EnOcean, an entrepreneurial spinoff of Siemens in Munich has pioneered this technology but it is not sufficient for future market requirements.  

Fortunately, work has already begun on both higher throughput wireless data communication using mmWave spectrum, and energy harvesting using radio backscatter, reminiscent of Nikola Tesla’s dream of wireless electrical power distribution. The successful demonstration of these technologies holds the potential to open the door to new IEEE data communication standards that could potentially play a role in ending the Tower of Babble and accelerating the integration of AI, IoT, and Big Data.  Bottom line is that the market and the technology landscape are improving. 

READ MORE: IEEE Talk: Integrated Big Data, The Cloud, & Smart Mobile: One Big Deal or Not? from David Mayes

My IEEE Talk from 2013 foreshadows the development of current emerging trends in advanced technology, as they appeared at the time. I proposed that in fact, they represent one huge integrated convergence trend that has morphed into something even bigger, and is already having a major impact on the way we live, work, and think. The 2012 Obama campaign’s sophisticated “Dashboard” application is referenced, integrating Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile was perhaps the most significant example at that time of the combined power of these trends blending into one big thing. 

READ MORE: Blog Post on IoT from July 20, 2013
homeautomation

The term “Internet of Things”  (IoT) is being loosely tossed around in the media.  But what does it mean? It means simply that data communication, like Internet communication, but not necessarily Internet Protocol packets, is emerging for all manner of “things” in the home, in your car, everywhere: light switches, lighting devices, thermostats, door locks, window shades, kitchen appliances, washers & dryers, home audio and video equipment, even pet food dispensers. You get the idea. It has also been called home automation. All of this communication occurs autonomously, without human intervention. The communication can be between and among these devices, so-called machine to machine or M2M communication.  The data communication can also terminate in a compute server where the information can be acted on automatically, or made available to the user to intervene remotely from their smart mobile phone or any other remote Internet-connected device.

Another key concept is the promise of automated energy efficiency, with the introduction of “smart meters” with data communication capability, and also achieved in large commercial structures via the Leadership in Energy & Environmental Design program or LEED.  Some may recall that when Bill Gates built his multi-million dollar mansion on Lake Washington in Seattle, he had “remote control” of his home built into it.  Now, years later, Gates’ original home automation is obsolete.  The dream of home automation has been around for years, with numerous Silicon Valley conferences, and failed startups over the years, and needless to say, home automation went nowhere. But it is this concept of effortless home automation that has been the Holy Grail.

But this is also where the glowing promise of The Internet of Things (IoT) begins to morph into a giant “hairball.”  The term “hairball” was former Sun Microsystems CEO, Scott McNealy‘s favorite term to describe a complicated mess.  In hindsight, the early euphoric days of home automation were plagued by the lack of “convergence.”  I use this term to describe the inability of available technology to meet the market opportunity.  Without convergence, there can be no market opportunity beyond early adopter techno geeks. Today, the convergence problem has finally been eliminated. Moore’s Law and advances in data communication have swept away the convergence problem. But for many years the home automation market was stalled.

Also, as more Internet-connected devices emerged it became apparent that these devices and apps were a hacker’s paradise.  The concept of IoT was being implemented in very naive and immature ways and lacking common industry standards on basic issues: the kinds of things that the IETF and IEEE are famous for.  These vulnerabilities are only now very slowly being resolved, but still in a fragmented ad hoc manner. The central problem has not been addressed due to classic proprietary “not invented here” mindsets.

The problem that is currently the center of this hairball, and from all indications is not likely to be resolved anytime soon.  It is the problem of multiple data communication protocols, many of them effectively proprietary, creating a huge incompatible Tower of Babbling Things.  There is no meaningful industry and market wide consensus on how The Internet of Things should communicate with the rest of the Internet.  Until this happens, there can be no fulfillment of the promise of The Internet of Things. I recently posted Co-opetition: Open Standards Always Win,” which discusses the need for open standards in order for a market to scale up.

Read more: Co-opetition: Open Standards Always Win

A recent ZDNet post explains that home automation currently requires that devices need to be able to connect with “multiple local- and wide-area connectivity options (ZigBee, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, GSM/GPRS, RFID/NFC, GPS, Ethernet). Along with the ability to connect many different kinds of sensors, this allows devices to be configured for a range of vertical markets.” Huh?  This is the problem in a nutshell. You do not need to be a data communication engineer to get the point.  And this is not even close to a full discussion of the problem.  There are also IoT vendors who believe that consumers should pay them for the ability to connect to their proprietary Cloud. So imagine paying a fee for every protocol or sensor we employ in our homes. That’s a non-starter.

The above laundry list of data communication protocols, does not include the Zigbee “smart meter” communications standards war.  The Zigbee protocol has been around for years, and claims to be an open industry standard, but many do not agree. Zigbee still does not really work, and a new competing smart meter protocol has just entered the picture.  The Bluetooth IEEE 802.15 standard now may be overtaken by a much more powerful 802.15 3a.  Some are asking if 4G LTE, NFC or WiFi may eliminate Bluetooth altogether.   A very cool new technology, energy harvesting, has begun to take off in the home automation market.  The energy harvesting sensors (no batteries) can capture just enough kinetic, peizo or thermoelectric energy to transmit short data communication “telegrams” to an energy harvesting router or server.  The EnOcean Alliance has been formed around a small German company spun off from Siemens, and has attracted many leading companies in building automation. But EnOcean itself has recently published an article in Electronic Design News, announcing that they have a created “middleware” (quote) “…to incorporate battery-less devices into networks based on several different communication standards such as Wi-Fi, GSM, Ethernet/IP, BACnet, LON, KNX or DALI.”  (unquote).  It is apparent that this space remains very confused, crowded and uncertain.  A new Cambridge UK startup, Neul is proposing yet another new IoT approach using the radio spectrum known as “white space,”  becoming available with the transition from analog to digital television.  With this much contention on protocols, there will be nothing but market paralysis.

Is everyone following all of these acronyms and data comm protocols?  There will be a short quiz at the end of this post. (smile)

The advent of IP version 6, strongly supported by Intel and Cisco Systems has created another area of confusion. The problem with IPv6 in the world of The IoT is “too much information” as we say.  Cisco and Intel want to see IPv6 as the one global protocol for every Internet connected device. This is utterly incompatible with energy harvesting, as the tiny amount of harvested energy cannot transmit the very long IPv6 packets. Hence, EnOcean’s middleware, without which their market is essentially constrained.

Then there is the ongoing new standards and upgrade activity in the International Standards Organization (ISO), The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), Special Interest Groups (SIG’s”), none of which seem to be moving toward any ultimate solution to the Tower of Babbling Things problem in The Internet of Things.

The Brave New World of Internet privacy issues relating to this tidal wave of Big Data are not even considered here, and deserve a separate post on the subject.  A recent NBC Technology post has explored many of these issues, while some have suggested we simply need to get over it. We have no privacy.

Read more: Internet of Things pits George Jetson against George Orwell

Stakeholders in The Internet of Things seem not to have learned the repeated lesson of open standards and co-opetition, and are concentrating on proprietary advantage which ensures that this market will not effectively scale anytime in the foreseeable future. Intertwined with the Tower of Babbling Things are the problems of Internet privacy and consumer concerns about wireless communication health & safety issues.  Taken together, this market is not ready for prime time.

 

The Internet of Things: The Promise Versus the Tower of Hacked Babbling Things


homeautomation

The term “Internet of Things”  (IoT) is being loosely tossed around in the media.  But what does it mean? It means simply that data communication, like Internet communication, but not necessarily Internet Protocol packets, is emerging for all manner of “things” in the home, in your car, everywhere: light switches, lighting devices, thermostats, door locks, window shades, kitchen appliances, washers & dryers, home audio and video equipment, even pet food dispensers. You get the idea. It has also been called home automation. All of this communication occurs autonomously, without human intervention. The communication can be between and among these devices, so called machine to machine or M2M communication.  The data communication can also terminate in a compute server where the information can be acted on automatically, or made available to the user to intervene remotely from their smart mobile phone or any other remote Internet connected device.

Another key concept is the promise of automated energy efficiency, with the introduction of “smart meters” with data communication capability, and also achieved in large commercial structures via the Leadership in Energy & Environmental Design program or LEED.  Some may recall that when Bill Gates built his multi-million dollar mansion on Lake Washington in Seattle, he had “remote control” of his home built into it.  Now, years later, Gates’ original home automation is obsolete.  The dream of home automation has been around for years, with numerous Silicon Valley conferences, and failed startups over the years, and needless to say, home automation went nowhere. But it is this concept of effortless home automation that has been the Holy Grail.

But this is also where the glowing promise of The Internet of Things (IoT) begins to morph into a giant “hairball.”  The term “hairball” was former Sun Microsystems CEO, Scott McNealy‘s favorite term to describe a complicated mess.  In hindsight, the early euphoric days of home automation were plagued by the lack of “convergence.”  I use this term to describe the inability of available technology to meet the market opportunity.  Without convergence there can be no market opportunity beyond early adopter techno geeks. Today, the convergence problem has finally been eliminated. Moore’s Law and advances in data communication have swept away the convergence problem. But for many years the home automation market was stalled.

Also, as more Internet-connected devices emerged it became apparent that these devices and apps were a hacker’s paradise.  The concept of IoT was being implemented in very naive and immature ways and lacking common industry standards on basic issues: the kinds of things that the IETF and IEEE are famous for.  These vulnerabilities are only now very slowly being resolved, but still in a fragmented ad hoc manner. The central problem has not been addressed due to classic proprietary “not invented here” mindsets.

The problem that is currently the center of this hairball, and from all indications is not likely to be resolved anytime soon.  It is the problem of multiple data communication protocols, many of them effectively proprietary, creating a huge incompatible Tower of Babbling Things.  There is no meaningful industry and market wide consensus on how The Internet of Things should communicate with the rest of the Internet.  Until this happens, there can be no fulfillment of the promise of The Internet of Things. I recently posted Co-opetition: Open Standards Always Win,” which discusses the need for open standards in order for a market to scale up.

Read more: Co-opetition: Open Standards Always Win

A recent ZDNet post explains that home automation currently requires that devices need to be able to connect with “multiple local- and wide-area connectivity options (ZigBee, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, GSM/GPRS, RFID/NFC, GPS, Ethernet). Along with the ability to connect many different kinds of sensors, this allows devices to be configured for a range of vertical markets.” Huh?  This is the problem in a nutshell. You do not need to be a data communication engineer to get the point.  And this is not even close to a full discussion of the problem.  There are also IoT vendors who believe that consumers should pay them for the ability to connect to their proprietary Cloud. So imagine paying a fee for every protocol or sensor we employ in our homes. That’s a non-starter.

The above laundry list of data communication protocols, does not include the Zigbee “smart meter” communications standards war.  The Zigbee protocol has been around for years, and claims to be an open industry standard, but many do not agree. Zigbee still does not really work, and a new competing smart meter protocol has just entered the picture.  The Bluetooth IEEE 802.15 standard now may be overtaken by a much more powerful 802.15 3a.  Some are asking if 4G LTE, NFC or WiFi may eliminate Bluetooth altogether.   A very cool new technology, energy harvesting, has begun to take off in the home automation market.  The energy harvesting sensors (no batteries) can capture just enough kinetic, peizo or thermoelectric energy to transmit short data communication “telegrams” to an energy harvesting router or server.  The EnOcean Alliance has been formed around a small German company spun off from Siemens, and has attracted many leading companies in building automation. But EnOcean itself has recently published an article in Electronic Design News, announcing that they have a created “middleware” (quote) “…to incorporate battery-less devices into networks based on several different communication standards such as Wi-Fi, GSM, Ethernet/IP, BACnet, LON, KNX or DALI.”  (unquote).  It is apparent that this space remains very confused, crowded and uncertain.  A new Cambridge UK startup, Neul is proposing yet another new IoT approach using the radio spectrum known as “white space,”  becoming available with the transition from analog to digital television.  With this much contention on protocols, there will be nothing but market paralysis.

Is everyone following all of these acronyms and data comm protocols?  There will be a short quiz at the end of this post. (smile)

The advent of IP version 6, strongly supported by Intel and Cisco Systems has created another area of confusion. The problem with IPv6 in the world of The IoT is “too much information” as we say.  Cisco and Intel want to see IPv6 as the one global protocol for every Internet connected device. This is utterly incompatible with energy harvesting, as the tiny amount of harvested energy cannot transmit the very long IPv6 packets. Hence, EnOcean’s middleware, without which their market is essentially constrained.

Then there is the ongoing new standards and upgrade activity in the International Standards Organization (ISO), The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), Special Interest Groups (SIG’s”), none of which seem to be moving toward any ultimate solution to the Tower of Babbling Things problem in The Internet of Things.

The Brave New World of Internet privacy issues relating to this tidal wave of Big Data are not even considered here, and deserve a separate post on the subject.  A recent NBC Technology post has explored many of these issues, while some have suggested we simply need to get over it. We have no privacy.

Read more: Internet of Things pits George Jetson against George Orwell

Stakeholders in The Internet of Things seem not to have learned the repeated lesson of open standards and co-opetition, and are concentrating on proprietary advantage which ensures that this market will not effectively scale anytime in the foreseeable future. Intertwined with the Tower of Babbling Things are the problems of Internet privacy and consumer concerns about wireless communication health & safety issues.  Taken together, this market is not ready for prime time.

 

Krugman Joins The Chorus Urging The Return Of Big Ideas In Technology and Venture Capital

Following my recent blog posts on Reid Hoffman, COP21, and an apparent resurgence of Big Ideas in technology, a growing group of venture capitalists are resurrecting their original mission in industry and the economy. Paul Krugman of the New York Times has also noticed and offers his hope that this trend continues. Max Marmer, who wrote his now legendary 2012 Harvard Business Review article, “Reversing the Decline in Big Ideas,” has stimulated a broad rethinking on what we should be focusing. The successful landing of Space X’s Falcon 9 is a hopeful early indication that Elon Musk is one of those on the right track.


In Star Wars, Han Solo’s Millennium Falcon did the Kessel Run in less than 12 parsecs; in real life, all the Falcon 9 has done so far is land at Cape Canaveral without falling over or exploding. Yet I, like many nerds, was thrilled by that achievement, in part because it reinforced my growing optimism about the direction technology seems to be taking — a direction that may end up saving the world.

O.K., if you have no idea what I’m talking about, the Falcon 9 is Elon Musk’s reusable rocket, which is supposed to boost a payload into space, then return to where it can be launched again. If the concept works, it could drastically reduce the cost of putting stuff into orbit. And that successful landing was a milestone. We’re still a very long way from space colonies and zero-gravity hotels, let alone galactic empires. But space technology is moving forward after decades of stagnation.

And to my amateur eye, this seems to be part of a broader trend, which is making me more hopeful for the future than I’ve been in a while.

You see, I got my Ph.D. in 1977, the year of the first Star Wars movie, which means that I have basically spent my whole professional life in an era of technological disappointment.

Until the 1970s, almost everyone believed that advancing technology would do in the future what it had done in the past: produce rapid, unmistakable improvement in just about every aspect of life. But it didn’t. And while social factors — above all, soaring inequality — have played an important role in that disappointment, it’s also true that in most respects technology has fallen short of expectations.

The most obvious example is travel, where cars and planes are no faster than they were when I was a student, and actual travel times have gone up thanks to congestion and security lines. More generally, there has just been less progress in our command over the physical world — our ability to produce and deliver things — than almost anyone expected.

Now, there has been striking progress in our ability to process and transmit information. But while I like cat and concert videos as much as anyone, we’re still talking about a limited slice of life: We are still living in a material world, and pushing information around can do only so much. The famous gibe by the investor Peter Thiel (“We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters.”) is unfair, but contains a large kernel of truth.

Over the past five or six years, however — or at least this is how it seems to me — technology has been getting physical again; once again, we’re making progress in the world of things, not just information. And that’s important.

Progress in rocketry is fun to watch, but the really big news is on energy, a field of truly immense disappointment until recently. For decades, unconventional energy technologies kept falling short of expectations, and it seemed as if nothing could end our dependence on oil and coal — bad news in the short run because of the prominence it gave to the Middle East; worse news in the long run because of global warming.

But now we’re witnessing a revolution on multiple fronts. The biggest effects so far have come from fracking, which has ended fears about peak oil and could, if properly regulated, be some help on climate change: Fracked gas is still fossil fuel, but burning it generates a lot less greenhouse emissions than burning coal. The bigger revolution looking forward, however, is in renewable energy, where costs of wind and especially solarhave dropped incredibly fast.

Why does this matter? Everyone who isn’t ignorant or a Republican realizes that climate change is by far the biggest threat humanity faces. But how much will we have to sacrifice to meet that threat?

Well, you still hear claims, mostly from the right but also from a few people on the left, that we can’t take effective action on climate without bringing an end to economic growth. Marco Rubio, for example, insists that trying to control emissions would “destroy our economy.” This was never reasonable, but those of us asserting that protecting the environment was consistent with growth used to be somewhat vague about the details, simply asserting that given the right incentives the private sector would find a way.

But now we can see the shape of a sustainable, low-emission future quite clearly — basically an electrified economy with, yes, nuclear power playing some role, but sun and wind front and center. Of course, it doesn’t have to happen. But if it doesn’t, the problem will be politics, not technology.

True, I’m still waiting for flying cars, not to mention hyperdrive. But we have made enough progress in the technology of things that saving the world has suddenly become much more plausible. And that’s reason to celebrate.

Vinod Khosla writes a scathing response to 60 Minutes’ ‘Cleantech Crash’ report

Originally posted on Gigaom:
Venture capitalist Vinod Khosla has written a 2,000-word open letter to 60 Minutes and CBS in response to their recent “Cleantech Crash” report, which featured lengthy interviews with Khosla and a tour of one of Khosla’s portfolio companies. He asserts that there are numerous errors in the piece, that the journalists…


Vinod Khosla gives CBS News 60 Minutes another major black eye on their bias and lack of investigative depth, as with the lightweight report on the NSA.  Just consider for a moment the absurdity of 60 Minutes story in the light of recent major strategic initiatives by Cisco Systems, Intel, Qualcomm on clean tech and the “Internet of Things.  Add to that this week’s announcement of Google’s acquisition of Nest, a major energy efficiency company, for $3 Billion.  Khosla’s entire open letter to CBS is shown below.

Vinod Khosla writes a scathing response to 60 Minutes’

‘Cleantech Crash’ report

Venture capitalist Vinod Khosla has written a 2,000-word open letter to 60 Minutes and CBS in response to their recent “Cleantech Crash” report, which featured lengthy interviews with Khosla and a tour of one of Khosla’s portfolio companies. He asserts that there are numerous errors in the piece, that the journalists who made it were practicing “agenda-driven bastardization of news reporting,” and that the story “grossly misrepresented the state of the sustainable energy industry.”

You can read the entire letter here. He also says in the letter that Khosla Venture’s “cleantech portfolio is profitable.” Here’s my take on the 60 Minutes piece; here’sNRG CEO David Crane’s response; and here’s clean power entrepreneur and investor Jigar Shah’s take.

Open Letter to 60 Minutes and CBS

January 14th, 2014

To: 60 Minutes and CBS

Attn: Lesley Stahl, Jeff Fager, David Rhodes, Leslie Moonves

On January 5, 2014, CBS’ 60 Minutes aired a segment titled, “The Cleantech Crash” that grossly misrepresented the state of the sustainable energy industry.

At Khosla Ventures, we are focused on finding real solutions for energy independence, rather than just pontificating. The pontificators at 60 Minutes, with their agenda-driven bastardization of news reporting, failed to do the most elementary fact checking and source qualification, as was the case with your Benghazi reporting. No wonder one major media outlet wrote that you have been “widely criticized for leaving out crucial information about the state of the clean tech sector.” Is this the new CBS standard?

The errors in your story are numerous.

Fact: I have not invested over a billion dollars of my own money into cleantech. It is substantially less, and a simple query to us would have corrected this error. We manage a balanced portfolio, and it has not “crashed” nor is it “dead”. In fact, our returns are significantly above the venture capital average.

Fact: Contrary to your assertion, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Loan Guarantee Program has created 55,000 new cleantech jobs. [1]

Fact: The DOE loan program, despite your implications, has a 97% success rate. [2] The former program head, Jonathan Silver, expects it to make money, not be a subsidy.

Fact: There is $51 billion remaining in DOE loan money.[3] The amounts in the CBS report are far from “spent” or allocated. You seem to want to cite big numbers, whether they are true or not!

Fact: A substantial portion of DOE loans is allocated to nuclear energy[4], not just cleantech segments like biofuels, solar or wind, a fact conveniently left out despite your being aware of it.

Fact: The U.S. spent $502 billion subsidizing fossil fuels in 2011. This is the result of directly lowered prices, tax breaks and failing to properly price carbon’s negative externalities.[5] You ignored the fact that energy is far from being a level playing field. Many other subsidies are hard to account for like MLP partnerships, accelerated depreciation and below-market royalties that are never categorized as fossil fuel subsidies that disadvantage cleantech.

Fact: According to a senior U.S. Navy official, last year alone, $80 billion of taxpayer money was spent patrolling just the oil sea-lanes in the Arabian Gulf. There are many sea-lanes we patrol. Globally and over time, the U.S. has spent $7 trillion patrolling them.[6] Such “protection spending” of U.S. taxpayer dollars for the oil industry is a much larger subsidy than any amount spent to support the cleantech industry, a fact CBS chose to overlook despite my statements on camera. This may be the largest U.S. subsidy in history, and it was purposely ignored because it is inconsistent with your agenda. Cleantech subsidies are a miniscule fraction of one-percent of these amounts.

The Department of Energy said it themselves, “Simply put, 60 Minutes is flat wrong on the facts. The clean energy economy in America is real, and we are increasingly competitive in this rapidly expanding global industry. This is a race we can, must and will win.”

There were many opportunities for you to showcase cleantech successes such as the dynamic glass company, View, with whom you met and visited as part of your research. You also had knowledge that View raised $60 million in private funding in early 2013, and weeks before your program aired, View secured an additional $100 million in private funding. These dollars will go toward ramping production efforts in its Mississippi-based manufacturing facility, which will in turn create scores of new American jobs. Sustainable energy is the way forward for this new era of American manufacturing.  Already, the Brookings Institute reports that the clean economy employs over 2.7 million workers despite your implications to the contrary!

You chose to ignore other success stories like energy storage company, Lightsail, which we also shared with you. In fact, you did not even want to visit the solar, engines or agriculture success stories, among others. You chose to ignore these FACTS, because it did not jive with the story you wanted to tell. Is your job reporting all the facts or merely pushing “angles”?

You fundamentally do not understand how innovation works with platitudes like, “for every 10 startups, nine go under”.  At Khosla Ventures, we invest in companies that have high failure probabilities, but the wins far outweigh the losses. I clearly explained that we expect 50-percent of our portfolio companies to make money and today, our overall cleantech portfolio is profitable; however, CBS chose to air sources who have never looked at the details of a quality venture portfolio. In fact, their so-called experts are only expert pontificators who have never produced any biofuels themselves.  One always can find a “source “ to throw mud at anything to get on-air; CBS appears to want the same standards for sourcing as the National Enquirer.

You falsely implied that our companies have received disproportionate taxpayer money, despite my repeatedly telling you otherwise. While these numbers are hard to accurately calculate, to the best of our knowledge, a substantial amount of funding (greater than 90%) for our cleantech portfolio has come from private sources. When our companies have received funding from the DOE, the dollar amounts represent a small fraction of the investment from private dollars. It is naive to believe that we can subsidize energy on a large scale; this kind of thinking would bankrupt any government, and yet CBS seems to imply that all our investments are based substantially on taxpayer money or are dependent on ongoing subsidies, a statement that is simply untrue.

In fact, the former head of the DOE loan program, Jonathan Silver, stated publicly that some of the projects cited as failures by CBS never even got loans in the first place. You also failed to note that while Range Fuels took federal loan money, we strongly opposed their decision to do so. Because these are independent companies, we seldom control these decisions. Repeatedly, your story reinforced the 60 Minutes thesis rather than objectively reporting the facts.

According to Silver, the DOE loan program was actually designed to make a profit in the long term even taking into account the failures, which represent a remarkably small portion of the portfolio (less than three percent). Any loan program, private or public, has both losses and gains. When the investment cycle is complete, Silver expects the government will actually make a profit on the portfolio. Interests are below market (just as in the oil leases that oil companies receive) but the terms are restrictive enough that our portfolio companies, Kior and Stion (our solar company) and others refused the loans even after they were awarded. CBS also failed to distinguish between federal loans that were designed to be profitable (the bulk of the money), research grants (billions spent on private universities and companies in and outside cleantech), work-for-hire (do we list Lockheed Martin, which receives billions of dollars annually in work-for-hire government revenue, as a subsidy?) and other programs.

You misleadingly hyped the “$150 billion” allocated to cleantech without noting that, while it has been allocated, much of it has not been spent. Further, to the best of my knowledge, much of such project spending goes to larger incumbents, not entrepreneurs.

Your naïve reporting also failed to account for the other setbacks we have gone through in the last five years, such as the economic crisis, which, while unrelated to cleantech, has substantially hurt the ability to fund cleantech research or projects. Many projects — be they chemical, oil sands or cleantech — have failed to meet their expectations because of the recent financial crisis.

At scale, new technologies must compete with conventional fossil fuels on both price and performance – in the U.S., as well as in India and China. Energy incumbents have incredible advantages embedded in our tax code, government regulation and public infrastructure; therefore, new competitive efforts must be nourished and encouraged to maintain a more competitive environment and a level playing field. Subsidies should be used to introduce new competition to markets against the embedded advantages granted to incumbents. We must reform America’s energy policy before companies become dependent on the existing subsidy regime. As context, Chinese solar, wind, LED and other companies get substantially larger government loans to compete against U.S. producers, even without technology differentiation. In fact, we risk losing technology to China because there is simply more government support there. U.S manufacturing suffers as a result. The 1950s and 60s saw the moon race. Today, we are in a new race for sustainable energy, but we risk losing because of irresponsible reporting like that of CBS!

Khosla Ventures does not believe in subsidy-dependent markets. Reaching unsubsidized market competitiveness five to seven years after a commercial start is an abiding principle for all of our investments. Subsidies are a crutch: they force innovation into a niche and create dependence on financial incentives that will eventually disappear. I have publicly stated that I am against corn ethanol and wind subsidies, among others, and in favor of reducing solar and biofuel subsidies over time. I also have written about the criteria for good subsidy programs elsewhere. We need to level the playing field in order to create new competition for fossil energy. Currently, there is an unfair advantage for fossil fuels with favorable tax legislation like Master Limited Partnerships, accelerated depreciation and below market royalties, and of course the aforementioned IMF-calculated subsidies as well as free transportation protection services provided by the federal government. It all adds up to massive numbers, much larger than for cleantech, and it has been going on for decades!

New industries are created by entrepreneurs who don’t necessarily have subject matter expertise when they get started, yet they are still responsible for most of the innovation we see in society. Did Google know much about media? Or Amazon about commerce? Tesla about cars? SpaceX about rockets?  EBay about classifieds? Juniper about telecommunications? What did I know about computing when I started Sun Microsystems? We should celebrate these entrepreneurs, not pillory them for fighting entrenched incumbent industries that have political influence and money. And yes, they often fail, but they also create more positive change than incumbents who, in general, are only responsible for incremental improvements. The oil industry has probably spent more money advertising their environmental efforts with the likes of CBS than on real research in green technologies.

Your so-called “experts” pontificate about the hard problem of energy; we heard similar things about the difficulty of telecommunications with trillions invested in infrastructure. Then, the Internet came along, despite the indifference of every major telecommunications carrier, and upended the industry. Looking back through history, we can easily find common shortsighted attitudes when evaluating new technologies. When Alexander Graham Bell invented the telephone, it was dismissed out-of-hand by the incumbent telegram service, Western Union. “The idea is idiotic on the face of it…. we do not see that this device will be ever capable of sending recognizable speech over a distance of several miles.”  Venture capitalist, Ben Horowitz, describes this naysaying attitude in an article titled, “Can-Do vs. Can’t-Do Culture”. As he so aptly points out about the naysayers, “They focused on what the technology could not do at the time rather than what it could do and might be able to do in the future.” This cynicism is exactly what CBS has proliferated in its unbalanced and unfair coverage of the cleantech industry. Today, the stakes are higher than ever as the world’s population increases and resources are limited. Our can-do attitude must overcome the naysayers.

To get to the energy-independent future we need, we must continue to try and sometimes fail, but the consequence for not trying is guaranteed failure. We will keep accepting intelligent and selective failure. Even oil prospecting has a greater than 55-percent failure rate, and yet we still do it. In the venture industry, we make risky bets all the time because that’s what it takes to innovate.

The future will run on energy. At Khosla Ventures, we are focused on making big bets to ensure a sustainable future even if some of them fail. It is unfortunate that stories like yours employ Benghazi-style reporting standards that overshadow the truth. I will continue to try and make the future happen and, when it does, hopefully someone else will do a better job reporting it.

As Robert F. Kennedy said, “Only those who dare to fail greatly can ever achieve greatly.”

— Vinod Khosla

Gigaom

Venture capitalist Vinod Khosla has written a 2,000-word open letter to 60 Minutes and CBS in response to their recent “Cleantech Crash” report, which featured lengthy interviews with Khosla and a tour of one of Khosla’s portfolio companies. He asserts that there are numerous errors in the piece, that the journalists who made it were practicing “agenda-driven bastardization of news reporting,” and that the story “grossly misrepresented the state of the sustainable energy industry.”

You can read the entire letter here. He also says in the letter that Khosla Venture’s “cleantech portfolio is profitable.” Here’s my take on the 60 Minutes piece; here’s NRG CEO David Crane’s response; and here’s clean power entrepreneur and investor Jigar Shah’s take.

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Vancouver company Energy Aware making Big Waves in Internet of Things

I met today with Ali Kashani and Janice (pronounced “Janeece”) Cheam of Energy Aware in their offices in Chinatown, East Vancouver. Ali is a UBC Vancouver Engineering Ph.D, and Janice is a Sauder “BComm” graduate. Together, they are the brains behind Energy Aware’s novel approach to the “hairball” of the Internet of Things. I began our meeting as a skeptic, and came away impressed with their approach, their market savvy, their chemistry as a team, and the big name partners they have already attracted.


BCB-Cover-August-20112

I met today with Ali Kashani and Janice (pronounced “Janeece”) Cheam of Energy Aware in their offices in Chinatown, East Vancouver. Ali is a UBC Vancouver Engineering Ph.D, and Janice is a Sauder “BComm” graduate. Together, they are the brains behind Energy Aware’s novel approach to the “hairball”  of the Internet of Things.  I began our meeting as a skeptic, and came away impressed with their approach, their market savvy, their chemistry as a team, and the big name partners they have already attracted.  The problem that Energy Aware faces is one of scale and money. Major global players like Intel, Cisco Systems, Qualcomm and others have decided to focus here as well. That is both good and bad for Energy Aware.  The big dogs have the ability to crush better ideas with money, or to collaborate with Energy Aware, so its anyone’s guess what may happen here.  The market for the Internet of Things is hideously complex, confused and immature, a perfect opportunity for an innovative entrepreneurial team to win, with Vancouver as their setting.

Read more: The Internet of Things: the promise versus the Tower of Babbling Things

Read more: Zigbee wants to be the bluetooth of the Internet of Things: too bad everyone hates it

Read more: New global mega industry battle developing in the Internet of Everything

Vancouver company providing a novel approach to cracking the IoT “Tower of Babble”

Reblogged from The Vancouver Sun

November 14, 2013. 4:21 pm • Section: Digital Life

Ali  Kashani, VP software,  and Janice Cheam, founder of Energy Aware Technology, with pie chart showing household energy use.
Ali Kashani, VP software, and Janice Cheam, founder of Energy Aware Technology, with pie chart showing household energy use.

RECENT POSTS FROM THIS AUTHOR

What has its start as Janice Cheam’s student project at UBC’s Sauder School of Business has turned into an innovative new technology for transforming an ordinary home into a smart home of the future.

Dubbed the Neurio, the technology is contained in a WiFi sensor that connects to your home’s breaker panel, tracking energy use by appliances and other electrical devices and integrating with the cloud and apps enabling consumers to manage everything from turning down the thermostat when they leave the house to reminding them that they left the oven on.

Neurio  has just raised more than $267,000 in  a campaign on the online funding site Kickstarter,  more than double its $95,000 goal.

I paid $129 to the Kickstarter campaign to be among the first consumers to get the Neurio Home package that includes a sensor, access to an online site with apps for managing power use.

According to Cheam, who is president and CEO of Energy Aware, the company that created Neurio, using Neurio could save that $129 and more by encouraging more careful energy consumption.

wattson load breakdown1 Vancouver company helps turn your home into a smart home

“We’ve found and a lot of studies have shown this, when people start to get real time feedback on the way they use energy it really changes the way people behave and how they interact with their appliances,” said Cheam. “At a very basic level there is just this consciousness that my house is actually costing me money right now.

“If I’m going to leave this house it is still going to cost me money so maybe I should turn something off and save money while I do that. That positive feedback reinforces people’s desire to want to waste less energy.”

It worked for  Ali Kashani, vice-president, software for Energy Aware.

Using a prototype of the Neurio in his Vancouver apartment, he cut his annual power bill from $750 a year to $400, an accomplishment that also earned him a $75 rebate  from BC Hydro’s Power Smart program.

Among the power culprits in his home? A stereo amp that was set to demo mode from the store.

“When I started using the sensor I realized even when I hit the off button it was still consuming energy,” he said. “It was costing me about $10 a month and with a simple configuration change that problem was resolved.”

app overview Vancouver company helps turn your home into a smart home

In the case of another family using the sensor, the software was able to determine that the household’s Saturday laundry was costing them much more than it should.

“One of the things we were able to detect really easily was that their dryer was really inefficient because you could tell how much energy it was consuming every time they ran a load,” said Cheam. “We could not only alert the customer to how much energy his laundry was using but we were also able to compare it to the community and show him how much more his dryer was costing in power.”

Neurio uses algorithms to track power usage and like the Nest Thermostat, learns over time.

New Global Mega Industry Battle Developing in the Internet of Everything

It has dawned on me that an entirely new Mega Multidimensional War of Titans is developing, entirely separate and distinct from the mobile smartphone Multidimensional Mega War of Titans. In many ways this new industry war may be more strategic, larger and more valuable than the smart phone war. The emerging new battleground is the Mega Global War of the Internet of Everything. The global players in this newly developing war are well known names in high technology: ARM, Broadcom, Cisco Systems, Intel, and Qualcomm, not to mention a new class of players like The Zigbee Alliance, Honeywell and a host of others. A number of small Canadian companies are also in the thick of this.


Another chapter in my Industry Analysis series

It has dawned on me recently that an entirely new Mega Multidimensional War of Titans is developing, entirely separate and distinct from the mobile smartphone Multidimensional Mega War of Titans.   In many ways this new industry war may be more strategic, larger and more valuable than the smart phone war.  The emerging new battleground is the Mega Global War of the Internet of Everything. The global players in this newly developing war are well known names in high technology: ARM, Broadcom, Cisco Systems, Intel, and Qualcomm, not to mention a new class of players like The Zigbee Alliance, Honeywell and a host of others.  A number of small Canadian companies are also in the thick of this.

Some history

The Internet of Everything has been around for over 20 years and gone absolutely nowhere for lack of “technology convergence” and effective industry “co-opetition.”  Definitional confusion has abounded, with terms like “home automation” and “machine to machine” (M2M) communication. The technology convergence issue is now resolved but not the need for “co-opetition.”    Despite this, it is estimated that there are already as many as two Billion  “Internet of Things” (IoT) devices already out there, though many of them do not yet work. Think of these as “sensors,” each with a microchip of some description, and some form of data communication, not all Internet compatible. The problem with what is out there is what I call “the Tower of Babbling Things.” There is no global industry consensus on how these sensors should communicate, so each competitor has gone forward to establish their own vertical proprietary markets.  Layer on  top of that multiple data communication protocols that do not talk to each other. The international standard bodies like IEEE and ISO have bravely declared their intent to establish coherence from chaos, but without the major players, their efforts are doomed. The result is a massive market hairball.  But the market value projections are so massive (see the Business Intelligence Infographic below) that the biggest global players appear finally to be moving.

The Mega Battlefield Begins to Take Shape.

While some major players have been engaged in the Internet of Everything space for some time, others are only beginning to mobilize their forces..  Intel has this week announced the formation of new Internet of Things division, following Intel’s recent announcement of of new family of “Quark”  Internet of Things microprocessors.

This is clearly a very important new technology development for all us, and is very much worth following. It will have an impact and major implications for all consumers and businesses.

Read more: The Internet of Things: the promise and the hairball

Read more: Zigbee wants to be the Bluetooth of the Internet of Things

Read more: Will the Internet of Things turn into a Tower of Babbling Things?

The Internet of Everything Outstrips the Smartphone Revolution

The Internet of Everything

Reblogged from SemiWiki.com

Can Intel Compete in the Internet of Things?

Published on 11-05-2013 03:00 PM
Kevin Ashton, a British technology pioneer, is credited for the term “The Internet of Things” to describe an ecosystem where the Internet is connected to the physical world via ubiquitous sensors. Simply stated: rather than humans creating content for the internet IoT devices create the content. To be clear, this does not include PCs, Smartphones, SmartTVs, or wearable electronics. Think everyday things like thermostats, appliances, parking meters, and medical devices enabling physical-to-digital communication via the internet.
Today there are an estimated 2B IoT devices in play and that number is expected to grow exponentially in the coming years, so yes, this is a big deal.The question I have is this: Does Intel have a chance here or will ARM and the fabless semiconductor ecosystem continue to dominate the IoT market?The annual ARM user gathering was last month and IoT was a major focus. You can read about the ARM and the Internet of Things keynote and visit the ARM TechCon website for more information. My agenda at the conference was gathering 14nm silicon data but I attended the IoT presentations as well and that lead me to where I am today, at the IEEE IoT workshop.“The great promise of the Internet of Things is about the transformation of the world based on the convergence of numerous disjointed systems into a fully connected environment where complex tasks are synchronized and performed by a unified platform,” said Oleg Logvinov, member of the IEEE-SA Standards Board, member of the IEEE-SA Corporate Advisory Group, and director of market development, Industrial and Power Conversion Division withSTMicroelectronics. “During the workshop in Silicon Valley, we will explore how various technologies can be applied across multiple verticals and how convergence is fueling IoT’s endless potential and opportunities.” I also attended the IDF 2013 Forum last September where Intel announced their IoT contender, Quark. For you Star Trek fans Quark was the beloved con man pictured above. For Intel, Quark is a synthesizable core based on the 486 instruction set to which they claim uses 1/10th the power of Atom and is 1/5 the size. This was just slides with little technical data but details are now starting to emerge. The first Quark will be manufactured on a 32nm SoC process. The main problem I see here is that Intel’s 32nm is HKMG which is not cost nor power optimized and will unfavorably compete with TSMC 28nm poly/SION but I digress…. Lets get back to business.
internetofthings2

The IoT value proposition is similar to mobile with low power and cost being the primary drivers. Business models and ecosystem are also going to be determining factors. Do you even know what silicon is inside your mobile devices? I do, but most people don’t. Do you even care? I do, but again, you don’t. Is IoT going to be any different? Absolutely not so say good bye to the old school benchmarks and transistor one-upmanship.

Also read: Intel Quark: Synthesizable Core but you can’t have it

The first questions during the IDF Q&A were about Quark and the Intel business model. By definition a synthesizable core can be licensed and customized by the customer. ARM takes this to a deeper level by licensing the architecture and instruction set so customers have complete control over implementation. So the first question to Intel CEO Brian K. was: Will Intel license the Quark cores? The answer was, “No”. Can Quark be manufactured outside of Intel? No. Can customers synthesize Quark? No. Can Intel be successful in the IoT market with their current Quark business model? No (my incredibly biased opinion). Fortunately business models can change faster than technology so Intel still has a chance with IoT and Quark but they had better hurry.

ZigBee wants to be the Bluetooth of the Internet of Things. Too bad everyone hates it.

Originally posted on Gigaom:
Poor ZigBee. As a wireless standard, it has long faced an identity crisis that pitted it against Wi-Fi in the home and proprietary standards or Bluetooth for low-data rates. But as companies such as Comcast(s cmcsa) embrace the connected home and thanks to an acquisition last year, the standard could get…


More on my two earlier posts on the Tower of Babbling Things

REBLOGGED FROM GIGAOM

connected house abstract copy

ZigBee is fighting for its place in the internet of things against Wi-Fi, Bluetooth Low Energy and Z-wave. It has to overcome fragmentation, sneak into user’s homes and keep Bluetooth at bay. Can it do all three.

Poor ZigBee. As a wireless standard, it has long faced an identity crisis that pitted it against Wi-Fi in the home and proprietary standards or Bluetooth for low-data rates. But as companies such as Comcast embrace the connected home and thanks to anacquisition last year, the standard could get its day in the sun and a place in the home.

Meet ZigBee, a confused standard

ZigBee is designed to carry small amounts of data over a mid-range distance and consume very little power. It’s also a mesh networking standard so the sensors can carry other data along to the hub. Its closest analog is the proprietary Z-wave standard that comes on chips made by Sigma Designs.

If you own a Nest thermostatComcast’s recent router or a Hue lightbulb you have ZigBee chips inside your home already.

A ZigBee outlet.

A ZigBee outlet.

But as those devices illustrate, ZigBee has been plagued by interoperability problems. The standard isn’t just the wireless transport mechanism, but a layer of software on top that can create profiles that interfere with different versions of ZigBee profiles. That means that unlike Wi-Fi, two devices that have ZigBee chips might not interoperate.

The ZigBee Alliance is working on this. In an interview last month with Alliance Chairman Tobin Richardson he said that ZigBee is getting more aggressive about policing those who use the ZigBee certification without actually interoperating. That’s going to be amazing, but the next step will be getting those that use ZigBee to want to go through certification.

ZigBee versus Z-wave

And that may require device-maker and consumer demand. But still, things are changing. Cees Links, the CEO of a Holland-based company called Greenpeak Technologies, which supplies ZigBee chips is optimistic. One would expect that, of course, but Links is also the man credited with convincing Steve Jobs to put Wi-Fi inside the Mac, which was a huge step forward for that technology’s adoption.

He’s betting he can do it again with ZigBee. So, while I’ve heard that roughly nine out of ten sensors are using the proprietary Z-wave standard over ZigBee, and more startups are coming out with Bluetooth Low Energy devices that will communicate with handsets, Links is confident that ZigBee still has a place in the developing internet of things. First, off ZigBee is an open standard with multiple vendors, while Z-wave is dominated by one.

The Nest thermostat.

The Nest thermostat.

Second, the Alliance is really safe-guarding that openness now. He points to the acquisition of Ember by Silicon Labs last year as a big turning point for the standard. Not only did it bring a large chipmaker into the mix, something that will assuage the fears of device-makers who might be skittish about trusting a startup for all of their chip needs, but it freed up the ZigBee Alliance to become a true standards organization.

Links says that Ember had really dominated the direction of the Alliance and wasn’t interested in creating a broader ecosystem where other vendor’s chips would interoperate with theirs, but now that Silicon Labs has taken over, the Alliance is focused on broadening adoption of all ZigBee chips, not just Ember’s. So with Greenpeak, Silicon Labs and Texas Instruments all producing silicon Links hopes device-makers will go with ZigBee as opposed to Z-wave.

Sneaking ZigBee into the home

As for the contention that all you need it Bluetooth and Wi-Fi, Links is skeptical that Bluetooth Low Energy can really handle the distance to become an in-home network, as opposed to a personal area network. And Wi-Fi consumes too much energy. So while, executives at Broadcom and Qualcomm are skeptical that you need more thanBluetooth or Wi-Fi, so far service providers and companies deploying in-home sensors are pretty sure ZigBee or maybe Z-wave has a place.

The next step after getting the chips widely used inside homes (the Comcast deployment should help here in the U.S.) will be getting a ZigBee chip inside the smartphone. Since the mobile handset or tablet is the homeowner’s primary method of communicating with sensors in the home, getting such a chip integrated inside would be huge for ZigBee.

Right now, a ZigBee radio must sneak into the home through a hub, router or set top box — making its adoption by homeowners dependent on the service providers and a few early adopters who buy things like the Almond Router, the SmartThings hub or the Revolv hub. That’s why Comcast’s decision to integrate ZigBee in its Xfinity Home gear is so big.

Of course, we’ll know if ZigBee is getting closer to the defacto standard for sensor networks once Qualcomm or Broadcom picks up Greenpeak — or they change their tune on the standard. And then, maybe we’ll see ZigBee make it into the handset or tablet. Of course, given the existing popularity of Z-Wave and the damage of fragmentation in the ZigBee market so far, none of this might happen, but if it’s going to, now’s the time.

Gigaom

Poor ZigBee. As a wireless standard, it has long faced an identity crisis that pitted it against Wi-Fi in the home and proprietary standards or Bluetooth for low-data rates. But as companies such as Comcast(s cmcsa) embrace the connected home and thanks to an acquisition last year, the standard could get its day in the sun and a place in the home.

Meet ZigBee, a confused standard

ZigBee is designed to carry small amounts of data over a mid-range distance and consume very little power. It’s also a mesh networking standard so the sensors can carry other data along to the hub. Its closest analog is the proprietary Z-wave standard that comes on chips made by Sigma Designs.

If you own a Nest thermostat, Comcast’s recent router or a Hue lightbulb you have ZigBee chips inside your home already.

But as those devices illustrate, ZigBee has been plagued…

View original post 677 more words

More On The Tower of Babbling Things: Honeywell Smart Thermostat

This article from Gigaom serves to further underscore The Tower of Babbling Things….Competitors battling each other over control of The Internet of Things over the means, methods and, most importantly, the dozens of competing data communication protocols. Honeywell has now entered the battle, realizing the a number of small, entrepreneurial startups are eroding their market for traditional thermostats. Previous to this development, Intel and others had promoted the concept of home tabletop display consoles for energy efficiency management. The display console concept is now officially dead, as reported in the Gigaom post. Recently, Gigaom also showcased three competing home automation systems, all of which were “closed” proprietary systems.


This article from Gigaom serves to further underscore The Tower of Babbling Things….Competitors battling each other over control of The Internet of Things over the means, methods and, most importantly, the dozens of competing data communication protocols.  Honeywell has now entered the battle, realizing the a number of small, entrepreneurial startups are eroding their market for traditional thermostats.  The glaring problem with Honeywell’s entry is the $250 price point.  Previous to this development, Intel and others had promoted the concept of home tabletop display consoles for energy efficiency management.  The display console concept is now officially dead, as reported in the Gigaom post. Recently, Gigaom also showcased three competing home automation systems, all of which were “closed” proprietary systems.

Read more: The Tower of Babbling Things

Reblogged from Gigaom

The battle over the smart connected thermostat rages on

August 2, 2013
Honeywell wifi thermostat 2
SUMMARY: In the face of growing competition from startups, Honeywell has launched a Wi-Fi-connected, smart thermostat, and the device may one day control more than just the heating and cooling systems.

The battle to control how people heat and cool their homes is heating up in a way that is reminiscent of the fight over which company gets to lord over the home’s media and entertainment systems.

Honeywell recently launched a fancy $249 Wi-Fi thermostat and an online energysavings calculator that aim to re-invent the company’s long-standing product line, and compete with younger, nimble upstarts like Nest and Radio Thermostat Company of America. Some of these startups are moving aggressively — despite only launching the learning thermostat in 2011, Nest has gotten it into big retail chains such as Lowe’s and Apple’s online store.

But temperature control isn’t what makes the technology development of these so-called smart thermostats interesting to watch. With more built-in sensors, software and wireless communications, these devices could become the brains of home energy networks, which will include not only the heating and cooling systems but also appliances and other energy consuming gizmos.

Honeywell wifi thermostat

The assumption here is that consumers will want greater control and automation of their energy use in order to keep utility bills in check. But how much time they are willing to spend tinkering with various settings and monitoring their energy use is still a big question.

We know that high-end energy dashboards were essentially flops. Doling out the same advice when consumers are paying their utility bills, on the other hand, seems to work better because you are getting their attention when they are about to fork over part of their earnings to keep their homes lit and comfortable.

But thermostats are no longer the only devices that are vying for control. With the emergence of rooftop solar panels and batteries to store home-grown energy, we are seeing control systems emerge that are designed to manage all of the energy created and consumed for the home.

The space for home energy control could be a tremendous market and has no dominant players so far. It’s like the early days when consumer electronics makers were trying to figure out whether it’d be the game console, TV, set-top box, computer or some other stand-alone devices that will the hub to connect the living room and deliver entertainment and other content throughout the house. After all these years, that fight remains unsettled.

Honeywell’s Wi-Fi thermostat play

Honeywell introduced the Wi-Fi Smart Thermostat just over a year after suing Nestover patent infringement in February 2011. The lawsuit remains in place, though it’son hold at Nest’s request.

Honeywell is using technology it previously engineered for industrial-grade thermostats for the new model, said Mike Hoppe, senior product marketing manager. The Wi-Fi thermostat lets homeowners key in daily temperature preferences and program their heating and cooling settings remotely by smart phones.

The device shows indoor and outdoor temperatures and alerts its owner when the home becomes too hot or cold and a new temperature setting might be needed. It also notifies the homeowner when the thermostat’s Wi-Fi connection is broken or when the home loses power.

Honeywell energy savings calculator

The core technology that Honeywell is proud of lies in the sensors and software that accurately reads the room temperature and communicates it promptly to the heater or air conditioning system, Hoppe said. The company says the accuracy margin is plus or minus 1 degree, unlike competing thermostats that could err as much as 4 degrees.

The company is sticking with the traditional rectangular look rather than the round shape that has defined Nest’s thermostat even if Nest wasn’t the first to make it round. But since style is now an important feature, Honeywell’s take on that is to build in a palette of background colors for the thermostat’s touch screen — you can change it to match the color of the wall or your mood.

The thermostat comes with a “utility mode” in which a homeowner would key in utility rates and other data. The device crunches those numbers to display a range of temperature choices, which let the homeowner decide whether to stick with the temperature she wants or to forego comfort in varying degrees in order to save money.

There is a fair amount of data input in the initial set up. The thermostat asks you when you get up in the morning, when you go to sleep, what time you leave and return to your home and what temperatures would you want for all these blocks of time each day. There is also a vacation mode.

Honeywell makes it clear that its new offering is not a “learning thermostat” like Nest’s, which has a motion sensor and algorithms that are supposed to figure out a homeowner’s heating and cooling patterns and recommend changes to save energy.

Nest 2G_3-4_Dramatic_heatUI

Honeywell contracted with GreenOhm to create the online energy savings calculator as a sales tool. With your zip code, information about your heating and cooling systems and your daily temperature preferences, the calculator can spit out an estimated annual monetary savings for using the new thermostat. You can also find out local utility rebates and other incentives for installing more intelligent thermostats.

The Wi-Fi thermostat is designed to provide a much finer control of your home’s comfort. But it also requires more work to get it set up and put it to work. While it’s interesting to see manufacturers put some thought and fashion into the long-neglected device, the thermostat may just remain as a tool to create a comfortable home. People may not care much more about it beyond that.

The Internet of Things: The Promise Versus the Tower of Babbling Things

The term “Internet of Things” is being loosely tossed around in the media. But what does it mean? It means simply that data communication like the Internet, but not necessarily Internet Protocol packets is emerging for all manner of “things” in the home: light switches, lighting devices, thermostats, door locks, window shades, kitchen appliances, washers & dryers, home audio and video equipment, even pet food dispensers. You get the idea. All of this communication occurs autonomously, without human intervention. The communication can be between and among these devices, so called machine to machine or M2M. The data communication can also terminate in a home compute server where the information can be made available to the homeowner to intervene remotely from their smart mobile phone or any other remote Internet connected device.


homeautomation

The term “Internet of Things”  (IoT) is being loosely tossed around in the media.  But what does it mean? It means simply that data communication, like Internet communication, but not necessarily Internet Protocol packets, is emerging for all manner of “things” in the home, in your car, everywhere: light switches, lighting devices, thermostats, door locks, window shades, kitchen appliances, washers & dryers, home audio and video equipment, even pet food dispensers. You get the idea. It has also been called home automation. All of this communication occurs autonomously, without human intervention. The communication can be between and among these devices, so called machine to machine or M2M communication.  The data communication can also terminate in a compute server where the information can be acted on automatically, or made available to the user to intervene remotely from their smart mobile phone or any other remote Internet connected device.

Another key concept is the promise of automated energy efficiency, with the introduction of “smart meters” with data communication capability, and also achieved in large commercial structures via the Leadership in Energy & Environmental Design program or LEED.  Some may recall that when Bill Gates built his multi-million dollar mansion on Lake Washington in Seattle, he had “remote control” of his home built into it.  Now, years later, Gates’ original home automation is obsolete.  The dream of home automation has been around for years, with numerous Silicon Valley conferences, and failed startups over the years, and needless to say, home automation went nowhere. But it is this concept of effortless home automation that has been the Holy Grail.

But this is also where the glowing promise of The Internet of Things (IoT) begins to morph into a giant “hairball.”  The term “hairball” was former Sun Microsystems CEO, Scott McNealy‘s favorite term to describe a complicated mess.  In hindsight, the early euphoric days of home automation were plagued by the lack of “convergence.”  I use this term to describe the inability of available technology to meet the market opportunity.  Without convergence there can be no market opportunity beyond early adopter techno geeks. Today, the convergence problem has finally been eliminated. Moore’s Law and advances in data communication have swept away the convergence problem. But for many years the home automation market was stalled.

The other problem is currently the center of this hairball, and from all indications is not likely to be resolved anytime soon.  It is the problem of multiple data communication protocols, many of them effectively proprietary, creating a huge incompatible Tower of Babbling Things.  There is no meaningful industry and market wide consensus on how The Internet of Things should communicate with the rest of the Internet.  Until this happens, there can be no fulfillment of the promise of The Internet of Things. I recently posted Co-opetition: Open Standards Always Win,” which discusses the need for open standards in order for a market to scale up.

Read more: Co-opetition: Open Standards Always Win

A recent ZDNet post explains that home automation currently requires that devices need to be able to connect with “multiple local- and wide-area connectivity options (ZigBee, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, GSM/GPRS, RFID/NFC, GPS, Ethernet). Along with the ability to connect many different kinds of sensors, this allows devices to be configured for a range of vertical markets.” Huh?  This is the problem in a nutshell. You do not need to be a data communication engineer to get the point.  And this is not even close to a full discussion of the problem.  There are also IoT vendors who believe that consumers should pay them for the ability to connect to their proprietary Cloud. So imagine paying a fee for every protocol or sensor we employ in our homes. That’s a non-starter.

The above laundry list of data communication protocols, does not include the Zigbee “smart meter” communications standards war.  The Zigbee protocol has been around for years, and claims to be an open industry standard, but many do not agree. Zigbee still does not really work, and a new competing smart meter protocol has just entered the picture.  The Bluetooth IEEE 802.15 standard now may be overtaken by a much more powerful 802.15 3a.  Some are asking if 4G LTE, NFC or WiFi may eliminate Bluetooth altogether.   A very cool new technology, energy harvesting, has begun to take off in the home automation market.  The energy harvesting sensors (no batteries) can capture just enough kinetic, peizo or thermoelectric energy to transmit short data communication “telegrams” to an energy harvesting router or server.  The EnOcean Alliance has been formed around a small German company spun off from Siemens, and has attracted many leading companies in building automation. But EnOcean itself has recently published an article in Electronic Design News, announcing that they have a created “middleware” (quote) “…to incorporate battery-less devices into networks based on several different communication standards such as Wi-Fi, GSM, Ethernet/IP, BACnet, LON, KNX or DALI.”  (unquote).  It is apparent that this space remains very confused, crowded and uncertain.  A new Cambridge UK startup, Neul is proposing yet another new IoT approach using the radio spectrum known as “white space,”  becoming available with the transition from analog to digital television.  With this much contention on protocols, there will be nothing but market paralysis.

Is everyone following all of these acronyms and data comm protocols?  There will be a short quiz at the end of this post. (smile)

The advent of IP version 6, strongly supported by Intel and Cisco Systems has created another area of confusion. The problem with IPv6 in the world of The IoT is “too much information” as we say.  Cisco and Intel want to see IPv6 as the one global protocol for every Internet connected device. This is utterly incompatible with energy harvesting, as the tiny amount of harvested energy cannot transmit the very long IPv6 packets. Hence, EnOcean’s middleware, without which their market is essentially constrained.

Then there is the ongoing new standards and upgrade activity in the International Standards Organization (ISO), The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), Special Interest Groups (SIG’s”), none of which seem to be moving toward any ultimate solution to the Tower of Babbling Things problem in The Internet of Things.

The Brave New World of Internet privacy issues relating to this tidal wave of Big Data are not even considered here, and deserve a separate post on the subject.  A recent NBC Technology post has explored many of these issues, while some have suggested we simply need to get over it. We have no privacy.

Read more: Internet of Things pits George Jetson against George Orwell

Stakeholders in The Internet of Things seem not to have learned the repeated lesson of open standards and co-opetition, and are concentrating on proprietary advantage which ensures that this market will not effectively scale anytime in the foreseeable future. Intertwined with the Tower of Babbling Things are the problems of Internet privacy and consumer concerns about wireless communication health & safety issues.  Taken together, this market is not ready for prime time.