The Okanagan Never Has Been, And Never Will Be, Silicon Valley: A Lesson From New Zealand


UPDATE: This post from February 21, 2016, is being republished in the light of the announcement that Club Penguin is closing its doors in March. No amount of PR spin, arm waving, or equivocation can make the bitter truth of this post go away.  I note that Lane Merrifeld and Accelerate Okanagan have been conspicuously silent.  Before that, it was Silicon Valley company Packeteer, that morphed into Vineyard Networks when Packeteer pulled the plug and was eventually “parked” with Procera in Silicon Valley, which benefited very few in the Okanagan.  There is a long legacy of this that need not continue.

kelownahightech

Kelowna Innovation Centre

British Columbia and New Zealand share many economic similarities, except that New Zealand has way more sheep, is way better at rugby and has much better sailors.  Both economies are focused on natural resource exploitation, tourism, wine, and horticulture. The motion picture industry has been a major factor in both economies, but both are highly vulnerable to foreign exchange fluctuations. Both economies have similar populations though we have more space and are not isolated in the South Pacific.   Both economies have made efforts to diversify into high tech, pouring millions into development of startups. Both economies have had modestly successful companies in high tech, which seemingly have mostly been bought out, moved out and any benefit to the local economy lost.  The crucial difference may be New Zealand’s pragmatism about how to deal with this economic reality.  British Columbia could learn from New Zealand.

Andy Hamilton, the long-time Director of Auckland, New Zealand’s Ice House high-tech incubator shared the following article from New Zealand’s NATIONAL BUSINESS REVIEW.  I first met Andy when I headed up New Zealand’s “Beachhead” incubator facility in Silicon Valley some years ago. The article has significant relevance to our situation in the Okanagan and British Columbia as a whole.  The Okanagan has seen high-profile startups like Club Penguin, Vineyard Networks, and Immersive Media bought by much larger foreign buyers, essentially leaving little benefit to the local economy. The founder of perhaps the most successful startup in BC, Ryan Holmes of Hootsuite, admitted that he did not base the company in the Okanagan (he is from Vernon) because he knew he could not attract the necessary talent here. It is well-known that many if not most UBC Okanagan graduates do not stay here.  While Vancouver has D-Wave and General Fusion, it has also seen Recon Instruments bought by Intel.  New Zealand has dealt with the same reality.  Forget the names of the Kiwi companies in the following editorial piece and substitute any Okanagan or BC startup company you feel is comparable. With Kelowna now tarred with the reputation as the worst job market in Canada, it would serve the local Okanagan establishment to give serious thought to the editorial below.

newzealand

New Zealand: We’re not, and never will be, Silicon Valley

OPINION

BEN KEPES

New Zealand’s Diligent Corporation chief executive Brian Stafford
John Donne famously wrote that no man is an island entire of itself. The same is true for countries, and especially those countries situated in the middle of nowhere and with a relatively tiny population. At the same time, the old adage of not wanting to throw out the baby with the bathwater springs to mind.

All this mixing of metaphors seems timely given the current debate over Diligent Corporation [NZX: DIL] and its likely sale and exit from New Zealand. People on one side of the debate bemoan foreign sales and suggest this is why we should stick to our primary production knitting. Those on the other side suggest  offshore sales are fine since the money reenters into the economy via the oft-quoted “rinse and repeat” cycle.

To be honest, both sides simplify things with their arguments and I think it’s time for New Zealand to think a bit more deeply about what we want our economy to look like.

We’re not, and never will be, Silicon Valley.

It frustrates me when people glibly suggest that New Zealand should create a mini-Silicon Valley down here in the South Pacific. Silicon Valley only exists in one place and is a unique creation of a number of factors including a university that was founded on the idea of entrepreneurship. Leland Stanford created the university as a memorial to his 15-year-old son who died of typhoid. The university was to be co-educational (a rare thing at that time) and, above all, designed to produce practical members of society. This wasn’t about research for research’s sake, Leland Stanford, a railroad magnate, wanted to produce research which was focused on commercial possibilities.

Add to that a hub of military research, significant funding streams for startups, a cultural focus on technology generally, and entrepreneurship specifically, and you have a unique place. Silicon Valley the product is very much a product of the crucible of Silicon Valley the place. We’d be advised to remember this.

But there are more reasons beyond viability to not want to recreate Silicon Valley in Auckland, Wellington or Christchurch. I’m lucky enough to spend a huge amount of time in “The Valley” and while I’d be the first to suggest that it is an exciting and bustling place, I’d also hate to live there. Unaffordable housing that makes Auckland look easy by comparison, ridiculous traffic issues (don’t even bother trying to drive the 101 on a weekday). A slightly weird culture in which 20-year-old entrepreneurs trying to reinvent laundry services or lawn care are seen as more heroic than doctors, firefighters or teachers.

Silicon Valley has something of a culture of “viva la revolution”. Ride-sharing service Uber’s founder, Travis Kalanick, is almost religious in his fervor for making transportation undergo a rapid revolution. Ultimately, he sees drivers as an impediment to this and is actively investing in driverless car technology in an effort to get rid of the very individuals who are currently making his service viable.

Perhaps this is the very reason that we shouldn’t try and recreate Silicon Valley in New Zealand. We have a society that, to some extent, at least, looks out for everyone. We were the first country in the world to give women the vote. We have a social welfare system that provides a safety net for people. When we’re sick in New Zealand we take it for granted that (hospital waiting lists notwithstanding) we’ll get treatment. The Silicon Valley focus on “automation and efficiency above all” forgoes all of this and, while creating a society where we can get our floors vacuumed by robots, our lawns mown as-a-service and even our meals prepared with synthetic meat by robot chefs, also helps create a dystopian world where anyone who isn’t a computer programmer, a robot engineer or independently wealthy falls by the wayside as an “unfortunate side effect of productivity enhancing tools and technological change.”

A final note on this point. Rod Drury, the chief executive of Xero [NZX: XRO], famously chooses to live in Hawke’s Bay where he can enjoy all that the region has to offer. Rod has seized this idea of balance in his working life and has found a way to build a business while not forgoing all possible quality of life. Indeed, this is a theme that Xero has used often when trying to attract talent. Let’s never forget these aspects in the desire to create GDP growth.

Do these technology exits really feed our economy?

All of this talk of quick technology exits funding lots of $100,000 plus software developer jobs here in New Zealand is a nice sound-bite but it arrogantly sidesteps the questions about what all those people who are left disenfranchised by those technologies are going to do. While TradeMe’s exit certainly helped to create companies like Vend, we need to be thinking, as a nation, about what is going to happen to all of those people who actually do things – tradespeople, manufacturing staff etc – once this ultimate in globalized efficiency is achieved.

If we look at the money that has been brought back to New Zealand from the sale of companies like TradeMe, how much has really gone into the economy? Yes, I’m well aware that TradeMe money has gone on to fund Vend, Xero, SLI Systems and a host of other companies. But while these are all interesting companies, doing good things and with (hopefully) a chance of a good outcome, they’re not particularly big employers and hence I’d be keen to see some empirical data about how much the so-called “trickle down effect” from exits like TradeMe actually exists.

True, both Sam Morgan and Rowan Simpson have built big houses that have kept a few tradesmen busy for a while – it would be helpful for some independent economists to really nut out the continuing value from this model. Often this argument is one which is had from a perspective of dogma – we need to really get some clarity as to the economic impacts of the technology industry in New Zealand.

Notwithstanding the economic benefits of these offshore sales, or otherwise, the fact is there is little option for our technology companies. Again, in this respect, Xero remaining, at least to some extent a New Zealand company is very much an outlier.

This talk of the problems caused by companies like Navman, The Hyperfactory, and NextWindow, that have grown, been sold offshore and all the jobs (along with the tax revenue) lost to NZ Inc is simplistic as well. We live in a tiny market, one which makes a domestic focus pretty much impossible for all but the most niche of players. To achieve growth, these companies need to look to customers overseas. In this technology space, the norm is very much to follow a rapid merger and acquisition path.

The very model of the technology industry is for there to exist a myriad of startups, all of whom sprint in order to get ahead of the others. The prize for being at the front of the bunch is generally (with only a handful of exceptions) a quick acquisition by one of the titans of the industry. After which, and other than a general couple of years spent in purgatory working for said vendor, the founders head back and do it all again. Hopefully.

Is there a third way?

Now I’m not suggesting that we shroud ourselves in an isolationist mist. The last person to do that was Robert Muldoon and it was a disaster. But to suggest, as many do, that technology will replace the need for any of our traditional businesses is simplistic. Similarly, the view that it is best to follow these models of building fast-growth software companies to be quickly flicked off to the highest bidder is unhelpful.

So maybe there is a third way. Maybe we can look at what we naturally do well – things like growing grass and turning it into milk and meat, horticulture and agriculture generally, and the technologies that help those industries to be more efficient, ideas that need a unique combination of practicality and DIY-mentality (Gallagher’s fences anyone?) – and apply technology to those things. With the utmost respect to Xero, a company that is a terrific success story for New Zealand, there is nothing about accounting software that we fundamentally have a point of difference with. Xero could have been created out of Bangalore, Silicon Valley or London. The fact that it has been successful out of New Zealand is down to good luck, good timing and some unique factors. Xero is an outlier – a great one – but an outlier nonetheless. It would be a dangerous bet to make to assume that we can create enough Xeros to fund our big, expensive economy.

Ever greater extension of dairy farming isn’t, of course, an option. Our rivers and lakes are already enough of an abomination without more nitrate runoff. But how about celebrating those companies that are attempting to add value to primary production – Lewis Road Creamery is one that springs to mind. But there is a host of exciting new startups in the agricultural technology space as well.

We need a diverse economy, one in which we have small companies making added-value products alongside companies that will grow rapidly and be sold off. If I look at the companies I’m involved with, I certainly invest in the “high-growth and sell offshore” model. Appsecute, a company I was an early backer of, sold a couple of years ago to a Canadian company which, in turn, sold to Hewlett-Packard last year. Companies like MEA mobile, Raygun, ThisData and Wipster will, potentially, follow this model. But other technology companies have a domestic focus or one which favors remaining independent and growing from New Zealand – PropertyPlot, CommonLedger, and Publons are examples. And finally, companies that are involved in real physical products. While it may be totally unsexy to actually make anything in New Zealand anymore, I’m proud to be involved in Cactus Equipment, a company that not only makes awesome products but keeps scores of people employed here in New Zealand – people who are unlikely to become software developers any time soon.

Focus on a diverse NZ Inc

When Sam Morgan suggested that a focus on NZ Inc was unhelpful for companies and would get them killed, he was referring to technology companies specifically. I believe that, as an economy, we should look more broadly at what we do and celebrate both the meteoric risers of the industry, but also the bit players – those who aren’t gunning for a US exit, those who are able to make a living in the traditional economy and those who are trying to add extra value to what we do well.

Christchurch entrepreneur and cloud computing commentator Ben Kepes blogs at Diversity.net.nz.

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Tough Love From Silicon Valley For Tough Times


Heidi Roizen is a very well-known Silicon Valley venture capitalist and entrepreneur. I first met Heidi years ago at a European COMDEX event in Nice when she was still in her entrepreneurial phase. Since that time she has gone on to fund numerous startups, and is now a Partner at Draper Fischer Jurvetson.  In this blog, Heidi is sounding the alarm to entrepreneurs that, as she says, the market has already turned for the worse. She has been there before and offers her sage advice to this generation of entrepreneurs on how to survive. IMHO, she is spot on.

Dear Startups:  Here’s How to Stay Alive

By Heidi Roizen
Reblogged from Tumblr
February 15, 2016

There are storm clouds gathering over Silicon Valley – and it’s more than just El Nino.

As a venture capitalist, I see a lot of data points within the private company marketplace.  Every Monday, I sit in a room with my partners and we discuss dozens of companies, both portfolio companies as well as those we are considering for investment.  When a market turns, we tend to see the signs earlier than the entrepreneurs working on the front lines.

This market?  I’d say it has turned.

It is going to be hard (or impossible) for many of today’s startups to raise funds.  And I think it will get worse before it gets better.  But, hey, my entrepreneurial friend, whoever said it was going to be easy?  One of my favorite expressions is: “that which does not kill us makes us stronger.”

So which is it going to be for you?  Tougher?  Or dead.

Fortunately, (unfortunately?) I’ve been to this movie before, during the dot-com “nuclear winter” – anyone remember that?   I’d like to think I’ve learned some things from that painful experience.

I’ve seen companies live, and I’ve seen them die. And I’ve concluded that certain behaviors separate the two.

Which behaviors, you ask? Here are a few from my downturn playbook for how to stay alive.

Stop clinging to your (or anyone else’s) valuation:  You know what somebody else’s fundraise metrics are to you?  Irrelevant.  You know what your own last round post was?  Irrelevant. Yes, I know, not legally, because of those pesky rights and preferences.  But emotionally, trust me, it is irrelevant now.  We even have a name for this – valuation nostalgia.  Yes, it was great when companies could raise those amounts, at those prices, blah, blah, blah, but the cheap-money-for-no-dilution thing is largely over now. The sooner you get on with dealing with that, and not clinging to the past, the better off you will be. As my DFJ partner Josh Stein says, “flat is the new up.”

Redefine what success looks like:  I had lunch last week with a friend of mine who broke her leg in three places four months ago.  “I used to think a successful weekend was 10+ miles of running,” she said.  “For now,  success is going to have to mean making it to the mailbox and back without my crutches.”  When a market like this turns, in order to survive, it is critical to redefine what success is going to look like for you – and your employees, and your investors, and your other stakeholders.  Holding on to ‘old’ ideas about IPO dates, large exits and massive new up rounds can ultimately be demotivating to your team.  If you can make it through the downturn, you will have those opportunities again.  But for now, reset your goals.

Get to cash-flow positive on the capital you already have (AKA, survive):My DFJ partner Emily Melton said this in our last partner meeting:  “Must be present to win.”  I used to say it at T/Maker (the company for which I was CEO) in a slightly different way:  “In order to have a bright long-term future, we need to have a series of survivable short term futures.”  You need to survive in order to ultimately win.

You know what kind of companies generally survive?  Companies that make more money than they spend.  I know, duh, right?  If you make more than you spend, you get to stay alive for a long time.  If you don’t, you have to get money from someone else to keep going.  And, as I just said, that’s going to be way harder now.  I’m embarrassed writing this because it is so flipping simple, yet it is amazing to me how many entrepreneurs are still talking about their plans to the next round.  What if there is no next round?  Don’t you still want to survive?

Yes, some companies are ‘moon shots’ (DFJ has a fair number of those in our portfolio) where this is simply not possible.  But for the vast majority of startups, this should be possible.

So, for those of you in the latter group, I want you to sharpen your spreadsheet, right now, and see if, by any hugely painful series of actions, you could actually be a company that makes money.  ASAP.  Or at least before you run out of money.   Because that’s the only way I know to control your own destiny.  You don’t have to act on it (although I would), but at least you will know if you have a choice.

And if you absolutely, positively, cannot get there without more capital?  Then you need to

Understand whether your current investors are going to get you there: Guess who else cares about whether you live or die?  Yep, your current investors.   Another duh.  That’s why they are your best source of ‘get me to cash flow positive’ financing.  And yet, even though we all know this, why is it we don’t actually (1) create the plan that gets us to cash flow positive ASAP, and then (2) go to our backers and get their commitment that they will see us through  (or know that they won’t, because if they won’t, the sooner we know that, the sooner we can go out and do something about this.)  I know many VCs hate to be put on the spot about this, but I think entrepreneurs have the right to ask, and to know.

Stop worrying about morale:  Yes, you heard me right.  I can’t tell you how many board meetings I’ve been in where the CEO is anguished over the impacts on morale that cost cutting or layoffs will bring about.

You know what hurts morale even more than cost- cutting and layoffs?  Going out of business.  

I was at a conference once where someone asked Billy Beane how he created great morale at the A’s.  His answer?  “I win.  When we win, morale is good.  When we lose, morale is bad.”

Your employees are smart.  They know we are in uncertain times. They see the stress on your face.  They worry about their jobs.  What do they want to see most?  A decisive plan for survival, that’s what – even if some of them have to go.   Trust me, a clear plan is a real morale turn-on.

Cut more than you think is needed:  Yes, this is simple, but not easy.  It is so easy to justify why you want to lay off fewer people.  However, when you do, by and large, you’ll be laying even more off later.  Why we humans seem to prefer death by a thousand cuts is a mystery to me.  Don’t.  It’s easier on everyone if you cut deeper and then give people clarity about the stability of the remaining bunch.

Scrub your revenues:  Last week an entrepreneur pitched us, and his ‘current customers’ slide was alight with bright, trendy logos of bright, trendy venture-backed companies.  You know what I saw?  A slide full of bright, trendy, money-losing, may-not-survive companies.  (Luckily, in this case, the entrepreneur referenced these customers because he thought VCs would like to see that their smart startups use his stuff, but he actually had a lot of mainstream customers too.  He has a new slide now.) This, I think, was one of the biggest surprises from the last dot-com bust – we all knew we had to cut our expenses, but no one thought about what our customers might be doing. And guess what? They were all cutting costs too – including those costs which comprised our revenues.  Or worse, they were going out of business. If you are in Silicon Valley and your customers are mostly well-paid consumers with no free time, or other venture-backed startups, well, I’d be worried.  And yes, it sucks, but it is better to be worried than surprised.

Focus maniacally on your metrics: I know a few CEOs who delegate the understanding of their financials and their business metrics to the CFO, and then stop worrying about all that ‘numbers stuff’.  Don’t do that.  You have to know your numbers inside and out – they are your life blood.  You also have to know which metrics drive the business, and focus on them like your survival depends on it – because it does.  Figure out your canary (or canaries) in the coal mine (by that I mean the leading indicators that tell where your business is headed and whether it is healthy) and watch them weekly, or daily, or in real time, whatever is possible.  And, have a plan in advance about what you will do if/when the metrics go south.  Many of the best companies to have survived the last downturn became super data-driven, and were constantly course-correcting to make small but continuous improvements in their operations with what they learned.

Hunker down:  These markets generally take a long time to recover. Longer than you think. And, it might get worse. So don’t plan for the sun to start shining tomorrow. Or next month.  Or next quarter.  Or maybe even next year. Sorry.

Having just thoroughly depressed you, let me say that I’ve seen amazing transformations by companies who adapt early to the new reality.  Severe budgets give clarity.  Smaller teams often find greater purpose in their work.  Gaining control (by becoming profitable) feels really, really good.  Watching your competition (who didn’t read this) die, feels – can I say it? – well let’s just say that when your competition goes out of business, you often gain their customers…and that’s a very, very good thing.

Some of the greatest companies were forged in the worst of times.  May you be one of them.

New Accelerate Okanagan Report On Tech Industry: Devil Is Again In the Details

Accelerate Okanagan should be commended for publishing a document, the stated goal of which is to “assist in attracting new talent, companies, and potential investors to the Okanagan, as well to inform policy makers and the media.” Such reports are commonly used to promote a community or region’s economy. However, as with the earlier 2015 report, there are persistent issues, particularly with the industry definition and methodology of the study. The result is questionable data and numbers that simply do not pass a basic “sniff test.” Accepting the results of this study as published may only serve to mislead community leaders on planning, and mislead prospective entrepreneurs considering relocating here.


Problems Persist With New 2016 Accelerate Okanagan “Tech Industry Analysis”

aoeconomicimpact2016

 Accelerate Okanagan should be commended for publishing a document, the stated goal of which is to “assist in attracting new talent, companies, and potential investors to the Okanagan, as well to inform policy makers and the media.”  Such reports are commonly used to promote a community or region’s economy. However, as with the earlier 2015 report, there are persistent issues, particularly with the industry definition and methodology of the study.  The result is questionable data and numbers that simply do not pass a basic “sniff test.” Accepting the results of this study as published may only serve to mislead community leaders on planning, and mislead prospective entrepreneurs considering relocating here.

I taught Industry Analysis at the University of British Columbia, and my entire career has been in high-tech in Silicon Valley and globally, beginning with many years at Intel Corporation, so my assessment is exclusively from a professional perspective. A PowerPoint presentation of my work in this area is posted on this website, under the heading Professional Stuff.

The report begins by explaining that the study was completed by an unnamed third party, apparently affiliated with Small Business BC.  A review of the Small Business BC website, staff, and services indicates the organization is almost exclusively organized and resourced to provide services only to individual small businesses. For example, scanning SBBC’s “Market Research” heading, it indicates that its services are focused entirely on smaller scale research for an individual small business, not a large scale analysis of an entire industry in a region.  Industry analyses of such scale are better suited to a local educational institution like UBC, with all the requisite skills and resources.  Though I have no inside knowledge, it seems reasonable to surmise that some degree of budgetary constraint and political influence were involved in the selection of SBBC, and a desire to emphasize local promotion over objective accuracy.

With regard to methodology and industry definition, the Report states that it follows the methodology of British Columbia’s High Tech Sector Report, the most recent of which is from 2014. A closer look at this methodology can be found on the provincial government website. A separate document is listed, “Defining the British Columbia High Technology Sector Using NAICS,” published fifteen years ago in 2001. My review of this document indicates that while it offers some useful discussion, it is seriously out of date and in need of revision.  A more professional approach would have required the development of a more current methodology relevant to the Okanagan situation. The BC methodology document does provide some very cogent cautionary remarks on high-tech industry definition and methodology:

The “high technology” sector is a popular subject of discussion and analyses, partly because it is viewed as an engine of growth both in the past and for the future. However, the high-technology sector has no specific and universally accepted definition. Defining and measuring the high technology sector can be done as part of basic research at the level of individual firms. A second, more “modest” approach uses pre-existing data collected on “industries” which are defined for general statistical purposes. The challenge is to determine which of these industries warrants inclusion in the measurement of the high technology sector.

The AO Report author seems to have accepted both approaches. Page 4 of the Report explains that the author decided to also include “the previous survey undertaken by Accelerate Okanagan.”  The previous AO survey was simply a Survey Monkey survey submitted by individual local businesses. The results were apparently compiled without additional professional judgment applied, or follow-up contact with companies by phone or other means and cross-referencing with the more “modest” macro data methodology mentioned in the 2001 BC document. IMHO, if my assumptions are correct, the Survey Monkey data should have been thrown out as unreliable, or regenerated with much greater scrutiny and judgment applied.

Then there is the issue of Kelowna as an employment market, as noted in the recently reported Bank of Montreal (BMO) and BC Business low national and provincial rankings of Kelowna’s employment market. These issues have also been reported in KelownaNow.  Hootsuite, whose founder is from Vernon, consciously chose Vancouver to start his company.  CEO Ryan Holmes openly admitted that he did not base Hootsuite in the Okanagan because he knew he would not be able to attract the necessary talent here. It is also important to note that a significant number of local business and community leaders met with the BC Labour Minister and reported that their primary concern was a lack of Temporary Foreign Workers, not economic development or the growth of the local high-tech industry.

The AO Report touches on these issues only very tangentially and indirectly in the closing pages. A more credible approach would have been to confront these local problems directly, citing the BMO report for example, and what AO and the community plan to do about it.  Clearly, there are unresolved and ignored contradictions with the AO report that damage its credibility and usefulness.

Finally, this week’s media coverage of the report has died down, having duly reported all the desired sound bytes, but a Google search shows that the media coverage has so far been nearly exclusively from the local Okanagan media which does not meet the stated goal of the AO effort to broadcast the promotion beyond the Okanagan.

Read the complete AO September 2016 report here:

Click to access Economic_Impact_Study_2015_Edition.pdf

MAYO615 REPOST from January, 2015:

AO Tech Industry Report Lacks The Rigor Necessary To Give It Much Credibility

Read the AO January 2015 press release and access the full report here

The AO report’s “economic impact” conclusions are based on 2014 Survey Monkey voluntary responses, which are problematic due to an apparent lack of critical assessment. The report does not follow the kind of rigorous industry analysis performed by leading technology consultancy firms like International Data Corporation (IDC) or Gartner. The definition of an “industry,” for example the “automobile industry in Canada,” involves broad activity around all aspects of “automobiles,” but at some point, firms like Kal Tire or “Joe’s Brake Shop” might be excluded from a definition of the automobile industry.  The report does not mention the rigor applied to this industry analysis, so the question is left open, “What exactly is the “tech industry” in the Okanagan?”  A well-defined $1 Billion industry is the mobile advertising industry in Canada.  Is that what we have in the Okanagan? By way of comparison, I reported on New Zealand’s Ice House tech incubator economic impact report, which has much greater credibility.  The AO report is essentially claiming that the Okanagan technology economy is more than twice the size of New Zealand’sThat’s too big of a leap of faith for me. Read New Zealand’s Ice House Startups Achieve Impressive Results and contrast it with the AO report.

Then there is the issue of Kelowna as an employment market, as noted in the recently reported Bank of Montreal (BMO) and BC Business low national and provincial rankings of Kelowna’s employment market. These issues have also been reported in KelownaNow. Clearly, there are unresolved contradictions with the AO reports.

Read More: Kelowna’s Low Jobs Ranking

Read More: Okanagan economy likely to worsen next year

I offer a summary view of “industry analysis” here: Industry Analysis: the bigger picture

What High Tech Industry in Kelowna?

There is a lot of hubris and fantasy here in the Okanagan that no amount of reality can kill. Contrasted with that is a political faction that wishes for nothing more than the status quo. In yet another example of Kelowna’s long-standing poor employment market, and bizarre claims of being a technology industry hub, high tech employment in the Okanagan is being curtailed by the mass exodus of qualified graduates to employers outside the Okanagan.


Kelowna’s tech industry growth stunted by shallow talent pool

There is a lot of hubris and fantasy here in the Okanagan that no amount of reality can kill. Contrasted with that is a political faction that wishes for nothing more than the status quo. In yet another example of Kelowna’s long-standing poor employment market, and bizarre claims of being a technology industry hub, high tech employment in the Okanagan is being curtailed by the mass exodus of qualified graduates to employers outside the Okanagan. This is not new news as it has been happening for years. The employment and economic development crises are now so severe that it may take a decade or more to reverse.  A recent claim that the Okanagan high-tech industry produces $1 Billion in revenue, now seems particularly preposterous.  This situation underscores the challenges facing Raghwa Gopal, as the new Director of Accelerate Okanagan.  I see that Gopal has so far won a host of community awards and contributed to a local food drive, which leaves me asking which job he is running for, and which job he holds now?

profile-raghwa-gopal

Raghwa Gopal, Director of Accelerate Okanagan

FROM KELOWNA NOW:

A lack of skilled programmers is hampering Kelowna’s ability to establish itself as a technology hub.

According to Barry Ward, the president of Bardel Entertainment, tech companies across the city are desperate for skilled employees, but there just aren’t enough of them to meet demand.

“Everybody’s feeling the pinch for talent,” Ward says. “You’re looking around town for someone with 5-10 years experience and they’re just not there.”

Bardel, the animation company Ward co-founded, has offices in both Kelowna and Vancouver. The company opened its Kelowna office three years ago, looking to expand out of a crowded Vancouver market.

<who> Photo credit: Bardel Entertainment </who>

Photo credit: Bardel Entertainment

Vancouver is the undisputed centre of technology in British Columbia but, according to Ward, the overcrowded market there has left an opening for another B.C. city to establish itself as a tech-industry hub.

He believes Kelowna is the perfect city to do that, but says that won’t happen “without an available talent pool” in Kelowna.

Dr. Raymon Lawrence knows that all too well.

Lawrence is an associate professor of computer science at the University of British Columbia in the Okanagan, where computer science programs are essentially at maximum capacity.

Lawrence says the university’s computer science department is on track to graduate 30-40 students next year, but that many of the graduates will be scooped up by tech giants like Google and Microsoft.

<who> Photo credit: KelownNow </who>

Photo credit: KelownNow

“Pretty much if any grad wants a job they can get a job within three months,” Lawrence says.With so much lucrative work outside the province, and relatively few skilled workers graduating every year, Lawrence says “there’s a real problem in Kelowna.”

Both Ward and Lawrence say the solution is simple: more people trained right here in Kelowna.

Ward was one of 18 tech industry “leaders” who wrote an open letter to Premier Christy Clark earlier this month asking for more funding and support for technology-related post-secondary programs.

They asked the premier to invest $100 million to grow post-secondary programs in the province, specifically in places like Kelowna.

Early this year, Clark did announce plans to introduce computer coding to B.C. school curriculum, and in 2015 the provincial government created a $100 million venture fund to finance tech startups.

Lawrence says provincial funding aimed directly at post-secondary programs would likely be the only thing capable of spurring growth in UBCO’s computer science programs.

“Unless there’s some money provided to us, we won’t grow,” he said.

The Okanagan Never Has Been, And Never Will Be, Silicon Valley: A Lesson From New Zealand

British Columbia and New Zealand share many economic similarities, except that New Zealand has way more sheep, are way better at rugby and are better sailors. Both economies are focused on natural resource exploitation, tourism, wine, and horticulture. Both economies have similar populations though we have more space and are not isolated in the South Pacific. The motion picture industry has been a major factor in both economies, but both are highly vulnerable to foreign exchange fluctuations. Both economies have made efforts to diversify into high tech, pouring millions into development of startups. Both economies have had modestly successful companies in high tech, which have been bought out and moved out. The crucial difference may be New Zealand’s pragmatism about how to deal with this economic reality. British Columbia could learn from New Zealand.


kelownahightech

Kelowna Innovation Centre

British Columbia and New Zealand share many economic similarities, except that New Zealand has way more sheep, is way better at rugby and has much better sailors.  Both economies are focused on natural resource exploitation, tourism, wine, and horticulture.  The motion picture industry has been a major factor in both economies, but both are highly vulnerable to foreign exchange fluctuations. Both economies have similar populations though we have more space and are not isolated in the South Pacific.  Both economies have made efforts to diversify into high tech, pouring millions into development of startups. Both economies have had modestly successful companies in high tech, which seemingly have mostly been bought out, moved out and any benefit to the local economy lost.  The crucial difference may be New Zealand’s pragmatism about how to deal with this economic reality.  British Columbia could learn from New Zealand.

Andy Hamilton, the long-time Director of Auckland, New Zealand’s Ice House high-tech incubator shared the following article from New Zealand’s NATIONAL BUSINESS REVIEW.  I first met Andy when I headed up New Zealand’s “Beachhead” incubator facility in Silicon Valley some years ago. The article has significant relevance to our situation in the Okanagan and British Columbia as a whole.  The Okanagan has seen high-profile startups like Club Penguin, Vineyard Networks, and Immersive Media bought by much larger foreign buyers, essentially leaving little benefit to the local economy. The founder of perhaps the most successful startup in BC, Ryan Holmes of Hootsuite, admitted that he did not base the company in the Okanagan (he is from Vernon) because he knew he could not attract the necessary talent here. It is well-known that many if not most UBC Okanagan graduates do not stay here.  While Vancouver has D-Wave and General Fusion, it has also seen Recon Instruments bought by Intel.  New Zealand has dealt with the same reality.  Forget the names of the Kiwi companies in the following editorial piece and substitute any Okanagan or BC startup company you feel is comparable. With Kelowna now tarred with the reputation as the worst job market in Canada, it would serve the local Okanagan establishment to give serious thought to the editorial below.

newzealand

New Zealand: We’re not, and never will be, Silicon Valley

OPINION

BEN KEPES

New Zealand’s Diligent Corporation chief executive Brian Stafford
John Donne famously wrote that no man is an island entire of itself. The same is true for countries, and especially those countries situated in the middle of nowhere and with a relatively tiny population. At the same time, the old adage of not wanting to throw out the baby with the bathwater springs to mind.

All this mixing of metaphors seems timely given the current debate over Diligent Corporation [NZX: DIL] and its likely sale and exit from New Zealand. People on one side of the debate bemoan foreign sales and suggest this is why we should stick to our primary production knitting. Those on the other side suggest  offshore sales are fine since the money reenters into the economy via the oft-quoted “rinse and repeat” cycle.

To be honest, both sides simplify things with their arguments and I think it’s time for New Zealand to think a bit more deeply about what we want our economy to look like.

We’re not, and never will be, Silicon Valley.

It frustrates me when people glibly suggest that New Zealand should create a mini-Silicon Valley down here in the South Pacific. Silicon Valley only exists in one place and is a unique creation of a number of factors including a university that was founded on the idea of entrepreneurship. Leland Stanford created the university as a memorial to his 15-year-old son who died of typhoid. The university was to be co-educational (a rare thing at that time) and, above all, designed to produce practical members of society. This wasn’t about research for research’s sake, Leland Stanford, a railroad magnate, wanted to produce research which was focused on commercial possibilities.

Add to that a hub of military research, significant funding streams for startups, a cultural focus on technology generally, and entrepreneurship specifically, and you have a unique place. Silicon Valley the product is very much a product of the crucible of Silicon Valley the place. We’d be advised to remember this.

But there are more reasons beyond viability to not want to recreate Silicon Valley in Auckland, Wellington or Christchurch. I’m lucky enough to spend a huge amount of time in “The Valley” and while I’d be the first to suggest that it is an exciting and bustling place, I’d also hate to live there. Unaffordable housing that makes Auckland look easy by comparison, ridiculous traffic issues (don’t even bother trying to drive the 101 on a weekday). A slightly weird culture in which 20-year-old entrepreneurs trying to reinvent laundry services or lawn care are seen as more heroic than doctors, firefighters or teachers.

Silicon Valley has something of a culture of “viva la revolution”. Ride-sharing service Uber’s founder, Travis Kalanick, is almost religious in his fervor for making transportation undergo a rapid revolution. Ultimately, he sees drivers as an impediment to this and is actively investing in driverless car technology in an effort to get rid of the very individuals who are currently making his service viable.

Perhaps this is the very reason that we shouldn’t try and recreate Silicon Valley in New Zealand. We have a society that, to some extent, at least, looks out for everyone. We were the first country in the world to give women the vote. We have a social welfare system that provides a safety net for people. When we’re sick in New Zealand we take it for granted that (hospital waiting lists notwithstanding) we’ll get treatment. The Silicon Valley focus on “automation and efficiency above all” forgoes all of this and, while creating a society where we can get our floors vacuumed by robots, our lawns mown as-a-service and even our meals prepared with synthetic meat by robot chefs, also helps create a dystopian world where anyone who isn’t a computer programmer, a robot engineer or independently wealthy falls by the wayside as an “unfortunate side effect of productivity enhancing tools and technological change.”

A final note on this point. Rod Drury, the chief executive of Xero [NZX: XRO], famously chooses to live in Hawke’s Bay where he can enjoy all that the region has to offer. Rod has seized this idea of balance in his working life and has found a way to build a business while not forgoing all possible quality of life. Indeed, this is a theme that Xero has used often when trying to attract talent. Let’s never forget these aspects in the desire to create GDP growth.

Do these technology exits really feed our economy?

All of this talk of quick technology exits funding lots of $100,000 plus software developer jobs here in New Zealand is a nice sound-bite but it arrogantly sidesteps the questions about what all those people who are left disenfranchised by those technologies are going to do. While TradeMe’s exit certainly helped to create companies like Vend, we need to be thinking, as a nation, about what is going to happen to all of those people who actually do things – tradespeople, manufacturing staff etc – once this ultimate in globalized efficiency is achieved.

If we look at the money that has been brought back to New Zealand from the sale of companies like TradeMe, how much has really gone into the economy? Yes, I’m well aware that TradeMe money has gone on to fund Vend, Xero, SLI Systems and a host of other companies. But while these are all interesting companies, doing good things and with (hopefully) a chance of a good outcome, they’re not particularly big employers and hence I’d be keen to see some empirical data about how much the so-called “trickle down effect” from exits like TradeMe actually exists.

True, both Sam Morgan and Rowan Simpson have built big houses that have kept a few tradesmen busy for a while – it would be helpful for some independent economists to really nut out the continuing value from this model. Often this argument is one which is had from a perspective of dogma – we need to really get some clarity as to the economic impacts of the technology industry in New Zealand.

Notwithstanding the economic benefits of these offshore sales, or otherwise, the fact is there is little option for our technology companies. Again, in this respect, Xero remaining, at least to some extent a New Zealand company is very much an outlier.

This talk of the problems caused by companies like Navman, The Hyperfactory, and NextWindow, that have grown, been sold offshore and all the jobs (along with the tax revenue) lost to NZ Inc is simplistic as well. We live in a tiny market, one which makes a domestic focus pretty much impossible for all but the most niche of players. To achieve growth, these companies need to look to customers overseas. In this technology space, the norm is very much to follow a rapid merger and acquisition path.

The very model of the technology industry is for there to exist a myriad of startups, all of whom sprint in order to get ahead of the others. The prize for being at the front of the bunch is generally (with only a handful of exceptions) a quick acquisition by one of the titans of the industry. After which, and other than a general couple of years spent in purgatory working for said vendor, the founders head back and do it all again. Hopefully.

Is there a third way?

Now I’m not suggesting that we shroud ourselves in an isolationist mist. The last person to do that was Robert Muldoon and it was a disaster. But to suggest, as many do, that technology will replace the need for any of our traditional businesses is simplistic. Similarly, the view that it is best to follow these models of building fast-growth software companies to be quickly flicked off to the highest bidder is unhelpful.

So maybe there is a third way. Maybe we can look at what we naturally do well – things like growing grass and turning it into milk and meat, horticulture and agriculture generally, and the technologies that help those industries to be more efficient, ideas that need a unique combination of practicality and DIY-mentality (Gallagher’s fences anyone?) – and apply technology to those things. With the utmost respect to Xero, a company that is a terrific success story for New Zealand, there is nothing about accounting software that we fundamentally have a point of difference with. Xero could have been created out of Bangalore, Silicon Valley or London. The fact that it has been successful out of New Zealand is down to good luck, good timing and some unique factors. Xero is an outlier – a great one – but an outlier nonetheless. It would be a dangerous bet to make to assume that we can create enough Xeros to fund our big, expensive economy.

Ever greater extension of dairy farming isn’t, of course, an option. Our rivers and lakes are already enough of an abomination without more nitrate runoff. But how about celebrating those companies that are attempting to add value to primary production – Lewis Road Creamery is one that springs to mind. But there is a host of exciting new startups in the agricultural technology space as well.

We need a diverse economy, one in which we have small companies making added-value products alongside companies that will grow rapidly and be sold off. If I look at the companies I’m involved with, I certainly invest in the “high-growth and sell offshore” model. Appsecute, a company I was an early backer of, sold a couple of years ago to a Canadian company which, in turn, sold to Hewlett-Packard last year. Companies like MEA mobile, Raygun, ThisData and Wipster will, potentially, follow this model. But other technology companies have a domestic focus or one which favors remaining independent and growing from New Zealand – PropertyPlot, CommonLedger, and Publons are examples. And finally, companies that are involved in real physical products. While it may be totally unsexy to actually make anything in New Zealand anymore, I’m proud to be involved in Cactus Equipment, a company that not only makes awesome products but keeps scores of people employed here in New Zealand – people who are unlikely to become software developers any time soon.

Focus on a diverse NZ Inc

When Sam Morgan suggested that a focus on NZ Inc was unhelpful for companies and would get them killed, he was referring to technology companies specifically. I believe that, as an economy, we should look more broadly at what we do and celebrate both the meteoric risers of the industry, but also the bit players – those who aren’t gunning for a US exit, those who are able to make a living in the traditional economy and those who are trying to add extra value to what we do well.

Christchurch entrepreneur and cloud computing commentator Ben Kepes blogs at Diversity.net.nz.

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Tough Love From Silicon Valley For Tough Times

Heidi Roizen is a very well-known Silicon Valley venture capitalist and entrepreneur. I first met Heidi years ago at a European COMDEX event in Nice when she was still in her entrepreneurial phase. Since that time she has gone on to fund numerous startups, and is now a Partner at Draper Fischer Jurvetson. In this blog, Heidi is sounding the alarm to entrepreneurs that, as she says, the market has already turned for the worse. She has been there before and offers her sage advice to this generation of entrepreneurs on how to survive. IMHO, she is spot on.


Heidi Roizen is a very well-known Silicon Valley venture capitalist and entrepreneur. I first met Heidi years ago at a European COMDEX event in Nice when she was still in her entrepreneurial phase. Since that time she has gone on to fund numerous startups, and is now a Partner at Draper Fischer Jurvetson.  In this blog, Heidi is sounding the alarm to entrepreneurs that, as she says, the market has already turned for the worse. She has been there before and offers her sage advice to this generation of entrepreneurs on how to survive. IMHO, she is spot on.

Dear Startups:  Here’s How to Stay Alive

By Heidi Roizen
Reblogged from Tumblr
February 15, 2016

There are storm clouds gathering over Silicon Valley – and it’s more than just El Nino.

As a venture capitalist, I see a lot of data points within the private company marketplace.  Every Monday, I sit in a room with my partners and we discuss dozens of companies, both portfolio companies as well as those we are considering for investment.  When a market turns, we tend to see the signs earlier than the entrepreneurs working on the front lines.

This market?  I’d say it has turned.

It is going to be hard (or impossible) for many of today’s startups to raise funds.  And I think it will get worse before it gets better.  But, hey, my entrepreneurial friend, whoever said it was going to be easy?  One of my favorite expressions is: “that which does not kill us makes us stronger.”

So which is it going to be for you?  Tougher?  Or dead.

Fortunately, (unfortunately?) I’ve been to this movie before, during the dot-com “nuclear winter” – anyone remember that?   I’d like to think I’ve learned some things from that painful experience.

I’ve seen companies live, and I’ve seen them die. And I’ve concluded that certain behaviors separate the two.

Which behaviors, you ask? Here are a few from my downturn playbook for how to stay alive.

Stop clinging to your (or anyone else’s) valuation:  You know what somebody else’s fundraise metrics are to you?  Irrelevant.  You know what your own last round post was?  Irrelevant. Yes, I know, not legally, because of those pesky rights and preferences.  But emotionally, trust me, it is irrelevant now.  We even have a name for this – valuation nostalgia.  Yes, it was great when companies could raise those amounts, at those prices, blah, blah, blah, but the cheap-money-for-no-dilution thing is largely over now. The sooner you get on with dealing with that, and not clinging to the past, the better off you will be. As my DFJ partner Josh Stein says, “flat is the new up.”

Redefine what success looks like:  I had lunch last week with a friend of mine who broke her leg in three places four months ago.  “I used to think a successful weekend was 10+ miles of running,” she said.  “For now,  success is going to have to mean making it to the mailbox and back without my crutches.”  When a market like this turns, in order to survive, it is critical to redefine what success is going to look like for you – and your employees, and your investors, and your other stakeholders.  Holding on to ‘old’ ideas about IPO dates, large exits and massive new up rounds can ultimately be demotivating to your team.  If you can make it through the downturn, you will have those opportunities again.  But for now, reset your goals.

Get to cash-flow positive on the capital you already have (AKA, survive):My DFJ partner Emily Melton said this in our last partner meeting:  “Must be present to win.”  I used to say it at T/Maker (the company for which I was CEO) in a slightly different way:  “In order to have a bright long-term future, we need to have a series of survivable short term futures.”  You need to survive in order to ultimately win.

You know what kind of companies generally survive?  Companies that make more money than they spend.  I know, duh, right?  If you make more than you spend, you get to stay alive for a long time.  If you don’t, you have to get money from someone else to keep going.  And, as I just said, that’s going to be way harder now.  I’m embarrassed writing this because it is so flipping simple, yet it is amazing to me how many entrepreneurs are still talking about their plans to the next round.  What if there is no next round?  Don’t you still want to survive?

Yes, some companies are ‘moon shots’ (DFJ has a fair number of those in our portfolio) where this is simply not possible.  But for the vast majority of startups, this should be possible.

So, for those of you in the latter group, I want you to sharpen your spreadsheet, right now, and see if, by any hugely painful series of actions, you could actually be a company that makes money.  ASAP.  Or at least before you run out of money.   Because that’s the only way I know to control your own destiny.  You don’t have to act on it (although I would), but at least you will know if you have a choice.

And if you absolutely, positively, cannot get there without more capital?  Then you need to

Understand whether your current investors are going to get you there: Guess who else cares about whether you live or die?  Yep, your current investors.   Another duh.  That’s why they are your best source of ‘get me to cash flow positive’ financing.  And yet, even though we all know this, why is it we don’t actually (1) create the plan that gets us to cash flow positive ASAP, and then (2) go to our backers and get their commitment that they will see us through  (or know that they won’t, because if they won’t, the sooner we know that, the sooner we can go out and do something about this.)  I know many VCs hate to be put on the spot about this, but I think entrepreneurs have the right to ask, and to know.

Stop worrying about morale:  Yes, you heard me right.  I can’t tell you how many board meetings I’ve been in where the CEO is anguished over the impacts on morale that cost cutting or layoffs will bring about.

You know what hurts morale even more than cost- cutting and layoffs?  Going out of business.  

I was at a conference once where someone asked Billy Beane how he created great morale at the A’s.  His answer?  “I win.  When we win, morale is good.  When we lose, morale is bad.”

Your employees are smart.  They know we are in uncertain times. They see the stress on your face.  They worry about their jobs.  What do they want to see most?  A decisive plan for survival, that’s what – even if some of them have to go.   Trust me, a clear plan is a real morale turn-on.

Cut more than you think is needed:  Yes, this is simple, but not easy.  It is so easy to justify why you want to lay off fewer people.  However, when you do, by and large, you’ll be laying even more off later.  Why we humans seem to prefer death by a thousand cuts is a mystery to me.  Don’t.  It’s easier on everyone if you cut deeper and then give people clarity about the stability of the remaining bunch.

Scrub your revenues:  Last week an entrepreneur pitched us, and his ‘current customers’ slide was alight with bright, trendy logos of bright, trendy venture-backed companies.  You know what I saw?  A slide full of bright, trendy, money-losing, may-not-survive companies.  (Luckily, in this case, the entrepreneur referenced these customers because he thought VCs would like to see that their smart startups use his stuff, but he actually had a lot of mainstream customers too.  He has a new slide now.) This, I think, was one of the biggest surprises from the last dot-com bust – we all knew we had to cut our expenses, but no one thought about what our customers might be doing. And guess what? They were all cutting costs too – including those costs which comprised our revenues.  Or worse, they were going out of business. If you are in Silicon Valley and your customers are mostly well-paid consumers with no free time, or other venture-backed startups, well, I’d be worried.  And yes, it sucks, but it is better to be worried than surprised.

Focus maniacally on your metrics: I know a few CEOs who delegate the understanding of their financials and their business metrics to the CFO, and then stop worrying about all that ‘numbers stuff’.  Don’t do that.  You have to know your numbers inside and out – they are your life blood.  You also have to know which metrics drive the business, and focus on them like your survival depends on it – because it does.  Figure out your canary (or canaries) in the coal mine (by that I mean the leading indicators that tell where your business is headed and whether it is healthy) and watch them weekly, or daily, or in real time, whatever is possible.  And, have a plan in advance about what you will do if/when the metrics go south.  Many of the best companies to have survived the last downturn became super data-driven, and were constantly course-correcting to make small but continuous improvements in their operations with what they learned.

Hunker down:  These markets generally take a long time to recover. Longer than you think. And, it might get worse. So don’t plan for the sun to start shining tomorrow. Or next month.  Or next quarter.  Or maybe even next year. Sorry.

Having just thoroughly depressed you, let me say that I’ve seen amazing transformations by companies who adapt early to the new reality.  Severe budgets give clarity.  Smaller teams often find greater purpose in their work.  Gaining control (by becoming profitable) feels really, really good.  Watching your competition (who didn’t read this) die, feels – can I say it? – well let’s just say that when your competition goes out of business, you often gain their customers…and that’s a very, very good thing.

Some of the greatest companies were forged in the worst of times.  May you be one of them.

Raghwa Gopal Named New Accelerate Okanagan CEO. Can He Turn Things Around?

Well-known local entrepreneur and community activist, Raghwa Gopal has been named the new CEO of Accelerate Okanagan with much fanfare. My sincere wishes for his success in this important new role in the community. However, it is extremely important to also recognize the major challenges he faces. Just this week BMO issued a report which ranked Kelowna the worst job market in Canada, well behind many seemingly more distressed Ontario communities. The reasons for Kelowna’s economic problems are deep and long-standing.


Well-known local entrepreneur and community activist, Raghwa Gopal has been named the new CEO of Accelerate Okanagan with much fanfare.  My sincere wishes for his success in this important new role in the community.  However, it is extremely important to also recognize the major challenges he faces.  Just this week BMO issued a report which ranked Kelowna the worst job market in Canada, well behind many seemingly more distressed Ontario communities.

The reasons for Kelowna’s economic problems are deep and long-standing. Accelerate Okanagan was hailed years ago for its potential value in boosting the local economy. Unfortunately, despite support and large funding infusions from the BC Innovation Council, not much has happened over these years.  The small handful of companies that can be listed as having done well enough to survive or to be sold, have had virtually zero impact on the economy. One such company was sold to a Silicon Valley networking company for about $20 Million. Another was sold to Telus Health for an undisclosed amount.  This is usually referred to in Silicon Valley as “parking,” or salvaging whatever is possible from a startup that did not do well. The other examples of Okanagan success, Club Penguin and recently, Immersive Media, are prime examples of how Canadian companies are bought for a song, and then stripped of their intellectual property (IP), and eventually the jobs as well. In the case of Disney and Club Penguin, I know a bit of the background.  A few years earlier, I had been invited, under NDA, to see Disney’s big budget online project development, which had spent hundreds of millions without much to show for it. Club Penguin was dirt cheap in Disney’s world, compared to their past losses.  Hootsuite is the one successful company whose founder is from Vernon.  But CEO Ryan Holmes has openly admitted that he did not base Hootsuite in the Okanagan because he knew he would not be able to attract the necessary talent here.

READ MORE: 

Kelowna one of the toughest cities to find a job

More disturbing, the local Okanagan establishment seems lost in a delusion regarding the size and impact of its high-tech industry.  Accelerate Okanagan recently published a report claiming that the high-tech industry here is valued at more than $1 Billion, which has been repeatedly cited by local leaders, including Kelowna Mayor Colin Basran. The fact is that no reputable industry analyst could honestly agree with the AO assessment, as the report was little more than an unscrutinized survey, lacking the most basic rigor of true industry analysis.  Add to that, the simplest comparison with another Canadian $1 Billion industry, mobile phone advertising, for example, does not square with what we see in Kelowna.

Some time ago, I reported on New Zealand’s Ice House tech incubator economic impact report, which has much greater credibility.  The AO report is essentially claiming that the Okanagan technology economy is more than twice the size of New Zealand’s…That’s too big of a leap of faith for me. Read New Zealand’s Ice House Startups Achieve Impressive Results and contrast it with the AO report.

So I offer my best wishes to Raghwa in his new position, and sincerely hope that he will be able to cut through the serious impediments to economic development and jobs growth in the Okanagan, particularly the need for a more realistic assessment of the current situation.

READ MORE: 

Can Accelerate Okanagan's Report On Local Tech Industry Economic Impact Be Believed?

READ MORE: 

http://mayo615.com/2014/12/19/okanagan-economy-and-jobs-market-likely-to-worsen-next-year/

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Accelerate Okanagan names Raghwa Gopal as CEO

GopalThe Accelerate Okanagan Technology Association has named Raghwa Gopal, a veteran of the Kelowna technology community, as its new CEO.

Gopal had been acting CEO for the past two months. This new announcement simply cements him in to the full-time CEO role.

Over his 28-year career, Gopal co-founded Vadim Software, an asset management platform used by the Canadian government among other provincial and municipal clients, a company which eventually grew to generate $25 million in annual revenue and employed over 100 people before being acquired in 2001.

Gopal retired as president and chief technology officer of Vadim Software in 2006.

“It is an immense honor to be offered the position of CEO for Accelerate Okanagan, particularly because this is such an exciting time for the tech industry in the Okanagan and the province as a whole,” said Mr. Gopal.  “With the Okanagan Centre for Innovation (OCI) opening soon, the new BC Tech Fund, and new and innovative programs being offered by Accelerate Okanagan, I see tremendous opportunity for the growth of tech companies in the Okanagan.”

The Okanagan Centre for Innovation is a six-storey, 104,000 square foot facility under construction at the corner of Doyle and Ellis streets in Kelowna.

“After an exhaustive search that involved over 120 candidates, we are extremely pleased to announce Raghwa Gopal as AO’s new CEO,” said Accelerate Okanagan Board Chairman Blair Forrest. “Mr. Gopal was by far the best candidate measured against the core competencies established by our CEO Search Committee and we are very fortunate to have someone of his calibre to lead our organization through the next stage of growth.”

In his “retirement”, Gopal has been involved in a number of volunteer roles, including Director of the Okanagan College Foundation, the Rotary Club of Kelowna, the United Way, and the Central Okanagan Development Commission.

“He is a very well-known and respected person with an extensive history in our community who will bring many years of business acumen, industry expertise and knowledge to the role,” continued Forrest. “Through his prior involvement as acting CEO and Executive in Residence, Raghwa is very familiar with our team, association members, programs, clients, partners, government funding organizations and objectives.”

Statistics Canada last year named Kelowna B.C.’s fastest growing city, with a population growth of 1.8% over the previous year.

“One of my primary goals will be to create an ecosystem of collaboration between different stakeholders – both here in the Okanagan and province wide – to provide bigger and better opportunities for local companies to grow and thrive,” added Mr. Gopal. “I’m looking forward to help further cultivate and nurture the burgeoning tech industry in the Okanagan.”

Canada’s Entrepreneurship Dilemma: Decades Of Anemic Research Investment

This issue has driven me absolutely nuts since I first arrived in Canada from Silicon Valley. It did not take me long to figure out that things did not work they way they did in California, and that there wasn’t much of a true entrepreneurial economy here. Since then, I have also been appointed to the Canada Foundation for Innovation grant process, providing me with insight into how R&D funding works in Canada. I have seen many issues in Canada that have impaired the nation’s ability to develop an entrepreneurial culture, among them is the inherent Canadian conservatism and short term horizon of investors unfamiliar with technology venture investment. But none has been worse than Canada’s decades-long neglect of adequate funding for research and development nationwide.


UPDATE: May 21, 2015.  As if to drive home the Canadian economic crisis, Goldman Sachs has just released an oil price forecast suggesting that North Sea Brent crude will still be $55 in 2020, five years from now.  As Alberta Western Canadian Select (WCS) bitumen is valued lower on commodity markets this is extremely bad news for Canada. Further, the well-known Canadian economic forecasting firm, Enform is predicting that job losses across all of western Canada, not only Alberta, could reach 180,000. 

This issue has driven me absolutely nuts since I first arrived in Canada from Silicon Valley.  It did not take me long to figure out that things did not work they way they did in California, and that there wasn’t much of a true entrepreneurial economy here.  Since then, I have also been appointed to the Canada Foundation for Innovation grant process, providing me with insight into how R&D funding works in Canada. I have seen many issues in Canada that have impaired the nation’s ability to develop an entrepreneurial culture,  among them is the inherent Canadian conservatism and short term horizon of investors unfamiliar with technology venture investment.  But none has been worse than Canada’s decades-long neglect of adequate funding for research and development nationwide.  A review of the OECD data on Canada’s investment in R&D compared to other industrialized nations paints a sorry picture.  This has led directly to a poor showing in industrial innovation and productivity. This is further compounded by the current government’s myopic focus on natural resource extraction, Canada’s so-called “natural resource curse.” The result now is an economic train wreck for Canada.  The fossil fuel based economy has collapsed and is not forecast to recover anytime in the near future.  During the boom time for fossil fuel extraction, there has been essentially no rational strategy to increase spending on R&D and innovation, and hence no increase in economic diversification.  Now the problem is nearly intractable, and may take decades to reverse.
asleep at the switch
 ASLEEP AT THE WHEEL, by Bruce Smardon, McGill-Queens University Press
ASLEEP AT THE WHEEL explains that since 1960, Canadian industry has lagged behind other advanced capitalist economies in its level of commitment to research and development. Asleep at the Switch explains the reasons for this underperformance, despite a series of federal measures to spur technological innovation in Canada. It is worth noting that Arvind Gupta, President of The University of British Columbia, and former head of MITACS, the organization at UBC tasked to promote R&D, has also been an outspoken proponent for increased R&D, at one point editorializing in the Vancouver Sun, that Canada needed an innovation czar, to promote innovation in the same manner as the 2010 Seize the Podium program to enhance gold medal performance for Canada.
Also, as a member of the 2012 Canada Foundation for Innovation Multidisciplinary Assessment process, and the University of British Columbia 2015 CFI grant preparation process, I can say without reservation that the Canada suffers from inadequate R&D funding and its consequences.

ANALYSIS From CBC News

Canada’s research dilemma is that companies don’t do it here

Ten-year study says repairs needed for rebound will be costly and difficult

REBLOGGED: By Don Pittis, CBC News Posted: May 15, 2015 5:00 AM ET Last Updated: May 15, 2015 6:31 AM ET

 Northern Electric was a domestic Canadian technology success story that became the telecom equipment giant Nortel Networks. But when Nortel failed, the lack of an R&D hub meant there were no startups to replace it.

Northern Electric was a domestic Canadian technology success story that became the telecom equipment giant Nortel Networks. But when Nortel failed, the lack of an R&D hub meant there were no startups to replace it. (The Canadian Press)

As Stephen Harper handed out more tax breaks for Canadian manufacturers in Windsor, Ont., yesterday, you might ask, “With that kind of support, why is Canada’s industrial economy in such bad shape?” Political economist Bruce Smardon thinks he has the answer.

Smardon says companies operating in Canada just aren’t spending enough on domestic research and development, and the Harper government is only the latest in a long line of governments, stretching back to that of John A. Macdonald, that have contributed to the problem.

As China’s resource-hungry economy goes off the boil, taking Canada’s resource producers with it, everyone including Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz, has been waiting for a rebound in Canada’s industrial economy.

But there are growing fears such a Canadian rebound is not on the cards. As the Globe and Mail’s Scott Barlow reported last week (paywall), despite having the top university for generating new tech startups, Canada has repeatedly failed to become a hub for industrial innovation.

Best in North America

Interviewed by the New York Times, the president of the startup generator Y Combinator, Sam Altman, called the University of Waterloo the school that stood out in North America for creating new ideas that turned into companies.

But as Barlow reported, there is statistical evidence that Waterloo’s success has not translated into R&D success, as Canadian industrial innovation continues to decline.

After 10 years of research, Smardon thinks his recent book, Asleep at the Switch — short-listed this year for one of Canada’s most prestigious academic book awards — provides the answer.

Political science professor Bruce Smardon’s book, Asleep at the Switch, examining Canada’s R&D failure, has been short-listed for one of Canada’s most prestigious academic prizes. (McGill-Queen’s University Press)

And, believe it or not, Smardon traces the chain of events back to Canada’s first prime minister and his tariff policy of 1879. Paradoxically, those rules were put in place to protect Canadian manufacturers from cheap U.S. goods, that were in turn protected by U.S. tariff walls.

Central Canadian boom

For the industries of central Canada, the tariff barriers worked. In the years before the First World War, says Smardon, Canada was second only to the United States in creating an economy of mass production and mass consumption, where workers could afford to buy the products they produced.

However, prevented by tariffs from exporting U.S. goods to Canada, American companies did the next best thing. They started, or bought, branch plants north of the border, wholly- or partly-owned subsidiaries that used U.S. technology in Canadian factories.

Smardon says that started a trend that continues today. The majority of R&D was being done in the home country of the industrial parent, not in the Canadian subsidiaries. And in the Mulroney and Chrétien era of free trade, he says, relatively high-tech branch plants, such as Inglis and Westinghouse, started to close as products were supplied more efficiently by the U.S. parent factories.

There were Canadian R&D stars such as Nortel and Blackberry, says Smardon. But they were exceptions. And when those stars began to set, the lack of a traditional R&D hub in Canada meant there were few young research-based companies ready to come up and replace them.

Tax credit paradox

The paradox, he says, is that Canadian taxpayers have spent a fortune on R&D tax credits. The 2011 Jenkins report showed that as a percentage of GDP, Canadian R&D tax incentives were higher than anyplace else. But as Barlow showed, Canadian R&D still lags behind.

The reason, Smardon concludes, is that while taxpayers fork out for R&D, industrial R&D doesn’t happen here but in traditional R&D hubs abroad. He says that free trade agreements and a longstanding view by Canadian governments that business knows best mean it’s very difficult to put conditions on how that money is spent.

“If we are concerned with developing a manufacturing base in the more advanced research intensive sectors, we’re going to have to have incentive programs at the very minimum, that are clear in insuring that any incentives are used to develop products and processes in Canada,” says Smardon. “They’ve got to think through how that can be done.”

But Smardon is not optimistic. He says that free trade and the free market philosophy has become so entrenched in Canadian thinking that it’s impossible to change.

Market rules

He says that is why the Harper government became so enamoured with the business of pumping and exporting unprocessed oil and gas while the Canadian industrial economy crumbled. It was exactly what the global free market wanted.

It may indeed be that global market forces decide Canada is an icy wasteland that is best at producing raw materials. It may decide that the best way to use our brilliant young people is to send them to California to develop their business ideas there.

But if we want more than that, perhaps handing out ineffective tax incentives is not going to be enough.

Can Accelerate Okanagan’s Report On Local Tech Industry Economic Impact Be Believed?

Report Lacks The Rigor Necessary To Give It Much Credibility. The AO report’s “economic impact” conclusions are based on 2014 Survey Monkey voluntary responses, which are problematic due to an apparent lack of critical assessment. The report does not follow the kind of rigorous industry analysis performed by leading technology consultancy firms like International Data Corporation (IDC) or Gartner.


 AO Tech Industry Report Lacks The Rigor Necessary To Give It Much Credibility

Read the AO press release and access the full report here

The AO report’s “economic impact” conclusions are based on 2014 Survey Monkey voluntary responses, which are problematic due to an apparent lack of critical assessment. The report does not follow the kind of rigorous industry analysis performed by leading technology consultancy firms like International Data Corporation (IDC) or Gartner. The definition of an “industry,” for example the “automobile industry in Canada,” involves broad activity around all aspects of “automobiles,” but at some point firms like Kal Tire or “Joe’s Brake Shop” might be excluded from a definition of the automobile industry.  The report does not mention the rigor applied to this industry analysis, so the question is left open, “What exactly is the “tech industry” in the Okanagan?”  A well-defined $1 Billion industry is the mobile advertising industry in Canada.  Is that what we have in the Okanagan? By way of comparison, I reported on New Zealand’s Ice House tech incubator economic impact report, which has much greater credibility.  The AO report is essentially claiming that the Okangan technology economy is more than twice the size of New Zealand’s…That’s too big of a leap of faith for me. Read New Zealand’s Ice House Startups Achieve Impressive Results and contrast it with the AO report.

Then there is the issue of Kelowna as an employment market, as noted in the recently reported BC Business low ranking of Kelowna at 17th. Clearly, there are unresolved contradictions with the AO report.

Read More: Kelowna’s Low Jobs Ranking

Read More: Okanagan economy likely to worsen next year

I offer a summary view of “industry analysis” here: Industry Analysis: the bigger picture

New Zealand’s Icehouse Startups Achieve Impressive Results

It was with some amazement that I read of the stunning results achieved by Andy Hamilton and the Icehouse incubator in Auckland. I have had the good fortune to know and work with Andy, visiting the Icehouse as the Director of New Zealand Trade & Enterprise’s Silicon Valley incubator in Redwood City. Andy routinely asked me to stop by when I was in town to deliver a “tough love” talk to the resident companies. Andy’s results contrast sharply with the results being achieved in other incubators, particularly here in BC. Much is being written about an incubator glut, massive waste of government money, and most importantly poor quantitative results from incubator companies. For example, when asked how many companies they have helped succeed a local BC accelerator employee could only say: “You really have to define success. I mean for most of these guys our success is just about getting them to realize their ideas are bad.” Really?


 

250 Startups, $425 Million in revenue, and 880 jobs!

 

andyhamilton

 Andy Hamilton, Director of Auckland’s Icehouse

New Zealand is a small isolated country on two islands deep in the South Pacific.  New Zealand has a population and economy roughly similar to British Columbia.  Australia, its bigger neighbor is 1200 kilometers away. Kiwi’s have therefore always valued self-reliance and resourcefulness.  So it was with some amazement that I read of the stunning results achieved by Andy Hamilton and the Icehouse incubator in Auckland.  I have had the good fortune to know and work with Andy, visiting the Icehouse as the Director of New Zealand Trade & Enterprise’s Silicon Valley incubator in Redwood City.  Andy routinely asked me to stop by when I was in town to deliver a “tough love” talk to the resident companies. 

Andy’s results contrast sharply with the results being achieved in other incubators, particularly here in BC. Much is being written and debated here about an incubator glut, massive waste of government money, and most importantly poor quantitative results from incubator companies.  For example, when asked how many companies they have helped succeed a local BC accelerator employee could only say: “You really have to define success. I mean for most of these guys our success is just about getting them to realize their ideas are bad.”  Really?

Icehouse startups make an impact

Read more: The Icehouse, Auckland, New Zealand

By The Icehouse

250 startups, $425million in revenue and 880 jobs!

These are the highlights of the impact statistics released by Auckland based business growth hub and startup incubator, The Icehouse, this week.

Tim_Richter_4084_web2Since starting in 2001, The Icehouse has worked with over 250 startups to help them accelerate their growth. The alumni pool includes some of NZ’s most successful startups such as M-com, PowerbyProxi, eBus as well as many emerging businesses and brands such as DirtyMan, Tomette, LiveLink Connect and Biomatters.

Since 2006, Icehouse startup alumni have generated over $425 million in revenue of which, $302 million has been export income. They have also created over 800 full time equivalent jobs. Over the same period, Icehouse startups have raised over $170million in funding, which includes government grants and seed and angel funding. A staggering $55m of that has come from angel investor network, ICE Angels.

Additionally, Icehouse startup alumni are more than returning the money the government invests in them through The Icehouse. Over the last eight years, they have generated $72 in revenue for every dollar of government funding The Icehouse has received to run its startup programmes. This has more than tripled since 2006 showing the increased contribution startups are having on the NZ economy.

Ken Erskine, Director, Startups The Icehouse & ICE Angels, says these impact statistics are a very positive sign for The Icehouse and its startup alumni as well as NZ startups in general. “It’s exciting to see our startups continue to succeed and contribute to the growth of the NZ economy.”

Erskine believes that the entrepreneurs behind the startups are the key to their success, “In many cases they were just people with ideas when we started working with them. Their drive, skills and passion is what enabled them to turn these ideas into successful businesses that create jobs and add value to our economy.

We are also delighted that we are producing an excellent return for the Government’s investment even without measuring GST, payroll or taxes paid. The original vision of this investment was to create a world-class startup ecosystem and The Icehouse and ICE Angels have been leaders in the development of this.”

A good example of this is Parrot Analytics, a Tech startup that recently graduated from The Icehouse incubator. Having raised over $1million in funding in 2013, lead by ICE Angels and syndicated with Stephen Tindall’s K1W1 and industry partners from the USA, the startup is considered to be one to watch as it moves into international markets. Founder and CEO, Wared Segar, understands very well what level of commitment and drive, as well as support, is required to start a business: “The Icehouse was beyond instrumental in helping Parrot Analytics secure its seed funding round from ICE Angels, which was one of the largest seed rounds raised by any Kiwi startup. The support from the team extended from capital raising advice to hands-on management support, connections and wider introductions to both local and international stakeholders as well as investing themselves. The team was and remains there for us to tap into to help achieve our common goal of building a successful Kiwi technology company.”

Sean Simpson, Board member of The Icehouse and Co-founder of LanzaTech, says that it is important to have committed and skilled entrepreneurs to drive startups. “Every startup has potential, however the transformation from startup to commercial success is never smooth. The drive, enthusiasm, and determination required to overcome obstacles to commercial success is what the entrepreneur brings. Great entrepreneurs are not constrained by the limitations of today, they drive to make success and grow their vision in spite of barriers that stand in the way of others. We have learnt and are focused on helping these entrepreneurs be the best they could possibly be.”

The Icehouse & ICE Angels are looking forward to working with more highly committed entrepreneurs in the future. Erskine says, “We have a number of really promising startups in The Icehouse at the moment. Seven of them are closing rounds with investors right now. And of course our alumni are continuing to grow so we’re expecting more success stories from them as well.”

A key aspect of the startup success has been the funding partnerships which they have created, with ICE Angels and more recently the Global from Day One Seed Fund.

Brian Casey, Chair of ICE Angels commented, “We are delighted to see the progression of The Icehouse in producing promising and fast growing startups. At the ICE Angels we are excited to get alongside fantastic entrepreneurs and their teams, invest in them, help them and be a sounding board for them as they start on their journey into global markets – not only to get a return but to see the benefit to the economy and our country. It is a great time to be a startup entrepreneur.”

For more information about The Icehouse’s Startup Programmes see www.theicehouse.co.nz/startup.

Key Icehouse startup facts

Over the past 8 years The Icehouse has received $5.875m from NZTE, which has been used to fund The Icehouse incubator. Over this period, The Icehouse has helped their startups to:

  • raise over $172m in total private sector funding (excluding grants), growing 40% year on year
  • create 888 jobs
  • realise $425m in aggregated total revenue (growing 32% year on year) of which 71% or $301.51m are export revenues (growing 136% year on year)

For every dollar of government funding The Icehouse receives, the value add to the incubated startups enables them to:

  • generate $72 of revenue from the startups. This amount has almost tripled (2.98x) since 2006. Of this, $51 are export revenues, this amount has increased 12.25x since 2006; and
  • raise $40 of private sector funding for the startups. This amount has almost tripled (2.89x) since 2006.