Trump, Brexit And The Rise of Populism

We are witnessing an extraordinary global upheaval, the outcome of which seems very uncertain at best. In my view, it is a populist reaction to globalization, and a dramatic shift in politics around the World, from economic issues to cultural issues. I see globalization as ultimately an inevitable evolution of human culture, but which by its very nature and the acceleration in the pace of change with the World Wide Web, is fomenting unrest and reaction. Marshall McLuhan, the great Canadian visionary correctly predicted the rise of the “global village” in the 1960’s. But neither McLuhan nor we foresaw the backlash against the Internet and efforts by China, Russia, Turkey and other countries to block free access to the Internet. The global economy also has essentially stagnated since the Global Financial Meltdown. This has been a warning of greater issues rising up around the World. Xenophobia, racism, gender issues, freedom of expression, environmentalism, and terrorism have displaced economics as the top political issues. How this all plays out in the “global village” is anyone’s guess.


The Rise of Populism and Cultural Politics: A Reaction to Globalization

The Decline of Economics As the Pivotal Issue of Politics

We are witnessing an extraordinary global upheaval, the outcome of which seems very uncertain at best. In my view, it is a populist reaction to globalization, and a dramatic shift in politics around the World, from economic issues to cultural issues.  I see globalization as ultimately an inevitable evolution of human culture, but which by its very nature and the acceleration in the pace of change with the World Wide Web, is fomenting unrest and reaction. Marshall McLuhan, the great Canadian visionary correctly predicted the rise of the “global village” in the 1960’s.  But neither McLuhan nor we foresaw the backlash against the Internet, efforts by China, Russia, Turkey and other countries to block free access to the Internet and simultaneously the rise of xenophobia, racism and economic protectionism. The global economy also has essentially stagnated since the Global Financial Meltdown. This has been a warning of greater issues rising up around the World. Xenophobia, racism, gender issues, freedom of expression, environmentalism, and terrorism have displaced economics as the top political issues. How this all plays out in the “global village” is anyone’s guess, but it is also important to remember the lesson of King Canute, who insisted he could stop the waves.

mcluhan

Backlash Against Marshall McLuhan’s “Global Village” Unlikely To Stop The Waves

I am sharing here a seminal editorial on this issue by Fareed Zakaria, of CNN GPS, perhaps the best media program on international politics. Zakaria cites the recent study by Richard Inglehart and Pippa Norris at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, which supports the ideas expressed here. I have also provided a link to the Harvard study.

WHY WE ARE ALL DEPLORABLES NOW

By Fareed Zakaria
Thursday, September 15, 2016, The Washington Post

Source: Why we are all deplorables now

Whether you put them in a basket or not, the question of this election is: Who are Donald Trump’s supporters? One way to answer that question is to widen its scope beyond the United States. Trump is part of a broad populist trend running across the Western world. Over the past few decades, we have seen the rise of populism — both left- and right-wing — from Sweden to Greece, Denmark to Hungary. In each place, the discussion tends to focus on forces that are particular to each country and its political landscape. But it’s happening in so many countries with so many different political systems, cultures and histories that there must be some common causes.

Harvard Kennedy School of Government Study

While populism is widespread in the West, it is largely absent in Asia, even in the advanced economies of Japan and South Korea. It is actually in retreat in Latin America, where left-wing populists in Venezuela, Argentina and Bolivia ran their countries into the ground over the past decade. But in Europe, we have seen a steady and strong rise in populism almost everywhere. In an important research paper for Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, Ronald Inglehart and Pippa Norris calculate that European populist parties of the right and left have gone from 6.7 percent and 2.4 percent of the vote in the 1960s, respectively, to 13.4 percent and 12.7 percent in the 2010s.

Read More:Trump, Brexit and the rise of Populism, Inglehart and Norris, Harvard Kennedy School of Government

The most striking finding of the paper, which points to a fundamental cause of this rise of populism, is the decline of economics as the pivot of politics. The way we think about politics today is still shaped by the basic 20th-century left-right divide. Left-wing parties advocated increased government spending, a larger welfare state and regulations on business. Right-wing parties wanted limited government, fewer safety nets and more laissez-faire policies. Voting patterns reinforced this ideological divide, with the working class voting for the left and the middle and upper classes for the right.

Inglehart and Norris note that the old voting patterns have been waning for decades. “By the 1980s,” they write, “class voting had fallen to the lowest levels ever recorded in Britain, France, Sweden, and West Germany. . . . In the U.S., it had fallen so low [by the 1990s] that there was virtually no room for further decline.” Today, an American’s economic status is a far worse predictor of voting preferences than, say, his or her views on same-sex marriage. The authors also analyzed party platforms in recent decades and found that, since the 1980s, economic issues have become less important. Non-economic issues — social, environmental — have greatly increased in importance.

I wonder whether this is partly because left and right have converged more than ever on economic policy. In the 1960s, the difference between the two sides was vast. The left wanted to nationalize industries; the right wanted to privatize pensions and health care. While politicians on the right continue to make the laissez-faire case, it is largely theoretical. In power, conservatives have accommodated themselves to the mixed economy as liberals have to market forces. The difference between Tony Blair’s policies and David Cameron’s was real but historically marginal.

This period, from the 1970s to today, also coincided with a slowdown in economic growth across the Western world. And in the past two decades, there has been an increasing sense that economic policy cannot do much to fundamentally reverse this slowdown. Voters have noticed that, whether it’s tax cuts, reforms or stimulus plans, public policy seems less powerful in the face of larger forces. As economics declined as the central force defining politics, its place was taken by a grab bag of issues that could be described as “culture.” It began, as Inglehart and Norris note, with young people in the 1960s embracing a post-materialist politics — self-expression, gender, race, environmentalism. This trend then generated a backlash from older voters, particularly men, seeking to reaffirm the values they grew up with. The key to Trump’s success in the Republican primaries was to realize that while the conservative establishment preached the gospel of free trade, low taxes, deregulation and entitlement reform, conservative voters were moved by very different appeals — on immigration, security and identity.

This is the new landscape of politics, and it explains why partisanship is so high, rhetoric so shrill and compromise seemingly impossible. You could split the difference on economics — money, after all, can always be divided. But how do you compromise on the core issue of identity? Each side today holds deeply to a vision of America and believes genuinely that what its opponents want is not just misguided but, well, deplorable.

(c) 2016, Washington Post Writers Group

The Digital Utopian Vision of Marshall McLuhan and Stewart Brand Is Cracking

It appears to me that the original vision and promise of the Internet, referred to by many as Digital Utopianism, is at severe risk of deteriorating into a “balkanized” World Wide Web.

National and political Internet barriers, censorship and ubiquitous surveillance seem to be the emerging new reality. Notable digital luminaries the likes of Vin Cerf and Bill Gates have been questioned on this point, and both have expressed no major concern about deterioration of the freedom of the Internet or with the original Utopian vision. The argument is that the World Wide Web cannot be effectively blocked or censored. As a long time Silicon Valley high tech executive, I understand this optimistic view, but the facts on the ground are now providing serious evidence that the Internet is under attack, and may not survive unless there is a significant shift in these new trends.


It appears to me that the original vision and promise of the Internet, referred to by many as Digital Utopianism, is at severe risk of deteriorating into a “balkanized”  and severely impaired World Wide Web.

mcluhanWEC-1971-cover

Internet barriers, censorship, protectionist Internet policy, and ubiquitous surveillance seem to be the emerging new reality.  Notable digital luminaries the likes of Vin Cerf and Bill Gates have been questioned on this point, and both have expressed no major concern about deterioration of the freedom of the Internet or with the original Utopian vision.  The argument is that the World Wide Web cannot be effectively blocked or censored.  Google would probably respond that their “loon balloons” could simply be launched to counter censorship. As a long time Silicon Valley high tech executive, I understand this optimistic view, but the facts on the ground are now providing serious evidence that the Internet is under attack, and may not survive unless there is a significant shift in these new trends.

This week alone, Turkey’s Erdogan has tried to block both Twitter and YouTube to prevent Turks from viewing evidence of his corrupt government. This morning’s New York Times reports Edward Snowden’s latest revelation.  While the U.S. government and media were investigating and publicly reporting on Chinese government Internet espionage and Chinese network equipment manufacturer Huawei, the NSA, the British GCHQ and Canada’s  Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) ,  were all collaborating, doing exactly the same thing. The hypocrisy and irony of this is not lost on either the Chinese or the Internet community. CBS 60 Minutes reported on the Chinese espionage, but has been essentially silent on NSA’s own transgressions. 60 Minutes even broadcast a report that NSA metadata was essentially harmless, which has now been shown to be false. The 60 Minutes objective reporting problem is the canary in the coal mine of the corporate takeover of media and the Web.  Protectionist policies in various countries targeted against Google, Microsoft and others are emerging. One of the many negative effects of the NSA revelations was the announcement this week that the United States was giving up control of the International Committee for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN), which essentially sets Internet traffic policy. Finally, this week, Netflix spoke out forcefully against the “peering agreement” it was blackmailed into signing with Comcast to insure “quality of service” (QOS) for Netflix programming to the edges of the Web.

Read more: NSA breached Chinese servers

Read more: Netflix Thinks Peering Should Be A Net Neutrality Issue

I recently came across Professor Fred Turner, Professor of Communication at Stanford. It has been a revelation for me.  His book, “From Counterculture to Cyberculture’ is an acclaimed milestone work. Turner has articulated the World I lived in the counterculture of the 1960’s and in the early Silicon Valley. His work explaining the evolution from the “counterculture” of the 1960’s to the emerging new “cyberculture” of the late 1980’s and 1990’s is an excellent record of that time in northern California.  This was the World of Steve Jobs at that time and his personal evolvement to a digital Utopian.  It is detailed in Jobs biography, and in Jobs wonderful Stanford University 2005 commencement speech, in which he also acknowledged the importance of Stewart Brand and the Whole Earth Catalog.  This was also my countercultural World as a Communications student at San Jose State at that time, in the heart of the Silicon Valley, and subsequent high tech career, beginning at Intel Corporation.  But even Professor Turner has expressed his own ambivalence about the future direction of the Web, though only from the standpoint of less worrying lack of diversity of Web communities. My concern is much more deeply based on current evidence and much more ominous.

Fred Turner, Stanford Professor of Communication – Counterculture to Cyberculture

Stewart Brand, the father of the Whole Earth Catalog and the original digital utopia visionary, has been rethinking its basic concepts. Brand has come around 180 degrees from environmental Utopianism based on “back to the land,” and is now embracing the future importance of urban enclaves. While this new urban view is now a widely held idea by many futurists, it can also be viewed as another facet of the end of digital utopia.  This TEDTalk by Brand lays out his new vision.  Where we go from here is anyone’s guess.

God Speed Edward Snowden: An Ethical Dilemma of Global Proportions

We are all now hearing and reading about Edward Snowden, who is now at the center of a global political firestorm, caused by Snowden’s decision to reveal the NSA’s PRISM surveillance program, and its increasing encroachment of personal privacy. Snowden’s revelations have now also entangled the UK’s GCHQ, the secret intelligence gathering arm of MI6 in Cheltenham, Gloucestershire which has also been sharing similar snooping with the NSA. A former U.S. National Security Administration contractor, Snowden was actually employed by Booz Allen Hamilton, a global management consultancy firm. Snowden’s situation should give us all pause to consider the Brave New World we have entered with zettabytes (1 Million Terabytes) of Big Data, and the uses of it.


EdwardSnowden1

I have written a number of posts on this blog about Big Data.. Big Data is in and of itself is benign. It has enormous potential to enrich our lives.  Evidence the excellent new book, Big Data: A Revolution That Will Transform How We Live, Work and Think, by Viktor Mayer-Schonberger and Kenneth Cukier. But Big Data has a dark side as well.  We should have known that the World’s largest spy and intelligence gathering organizations have the massive resources at their disposal to exploit Big Data on a scale not yet achieved in our open world, mimicking Aldous Huxley’s warnings to us, or the film Minority Report, starring Tom Cruise

My third year UBC Management students may recall our classroom discussions on ethics, and the painful reality that there are no clear and easy answers in ethical situations, even when you want to “do the right thing.”  We are all now hearing and reading about Edward Snowden, who is now at the center of a global political firestorm, caused by Snowden’s decision to reveal the NSA‘s PRISM surveillance program,  and its extraordinary encroachment of personal privacy.  Snowden’s revelations have now also entangled the UK’s GCHQ, the secret intelligence gathering arm of MI6 in Cheltenham, Gloucestershire, and Canada’s Secret Intelligence Service (CSIS), which have also been sharing similar snooping with the NSA.  A former U.S. National Security Administration contractor, Snowden was actually employed by Booz Allen Hamilton, a global management consultancy firm.  Snowden’s situation should give us all pause to consider the Brave New World we have entered with zettabytes (1 Million Terabytes) of Big Data, and the uses of it.

So the question needs to be raised.  You are a young new management graduate, hired by one of the major international management consultancy firms, and you are surprised to find yourself posted to the Canadian Secret Intelligence Service (CSIS), or the NSA, or MI6 in the UK... You have been taught in university to recognize ethical problems and you become intimately aware of programs and activities that do not feel right to you.  Something in your gut says that it is wrong, a violation of our basic democratic freedoms.  But of course there are no easy answers. These programs are providing intelligence that may be preventing terrorist attacks.  The consequences for you personally, should you choose to reveal what you know, are potentially catastrophic.  What would you do?

Whatever side you may take on this issue, I think it is important to appreciate that Edward Snowden has made his extraordinarily difficult decision. It may well cost him for the rest of his life.  Would you be prepared to take that kind of stand? If not on an issue like this, on what kind of issue, or any issue?

Even in my home town of San Francisco, there is controversy.  U.S. Senator Diane Feinstein, from San Francisco, who sits on the Senate Intelligence Committee, has spoken out fervently that the NSA Prism intelligence gathering program is entirely “within the law.” Senator Feinstein has also joined the voices calling for Snowden’s indictment on espionage charges.  In contrast, U.S. House of Representatives Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, also of San Francisco, has spoken up in defense of Mr. Snowden.

JulianAssangeBradleyManningBradley Manning and Julian Assange

The Snowden affair has put the Bradley Manning and Julian Assange Wikileaks matter into a much clearer perspective. Something much bigger is going on here. With multiple nations rising to support and protect Mr. Snowden, it makes it much harder for the United States to argue that they have the high moral ground.

A key issue we all need to follow is how the lightning fast advances in technology are eclipsing the “law.”  I worry that Senator Feinstein, for all of her skill and knowledge, has not grasped the significance of Big Data as it applies to personal privacy under the Constitution of the United States.

My personal cut is that Mr. Snowden has done the free world a great service, at a tremendous cost to himself.  It is also interesting to see the enormous support he has engendered around the World, in a matter of days.  The U.S. government is looking terrible on the World Stage, as it attempts to apprehend Mr. Snowden. Only a very brave few in the United States have even attempted to defend Snowden. The Libertarian Rand Paul began a defense of Snowden and later backed off.  House of Representatives Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi has also bravely spoken out in support of Snowden to a chorus of disapproval..

This is the the core stuff of ethical dilemmas.  When the going gets tough, the tough get going.  Remember this in your own small way in your careers. John F. Kennedy wrote a now legendary book, Profiles in Courage, which we should all take out and read again.

Whether you agree or disagree with Edward Snowden’s actions, he has shown himself to be a person of character and determination. Think of him like Braveheart’s William Wallace, played by Mel Gibson.

God speed, Edward Snowden.

Big Data: Big Deal Or Not?


I have been having a spirited marathon debate with a couple of my friends.  Is this alleged new “Big Data thingy” so transformational that it will change our every day lives, or is it just an evolutionary advance that may improve productivity but not much else?  The same arguments may apply to the concept of “The Cloud,” and “Smart Mobile.”  The three, taken together, are coalescing into the major information technology forces that will drive innovation and productivity into the foreseeable future.

PollDaddy: What Is Your Opinion?  Big Data: Big Deal Or Not? Or Comment Below

We are hearing regularly in the media about so-called “Big Data.”  What exactly is Big Data? A number of differing definitions have been offered from a wide range of media sources. ZDNet‘s definition is one of the best I have seen so far.  In essence, big data is about liberating data that is large in volume, broad in variety and high in velocity from multiple sources in order to create efficiencies, develop new products and be more competitive. Forrester puts it succinctly in saying that big data encompasses “techniques and technologies that make capturing value from data at an extreme scale economical”  Prior to the emergence of commercial Big Data, the concept only existed where cost was no object: in the black world of the National Security Administration, and required the largest purpose-built supercomputers in existence.

bigdatalandscape

zettabyte (symbol ZB, derived from the SI prefix zetta-) is a quantity of information or information storage capacity equal to 1021 bytes or 1,000 exabytes (or one sextillion (one long scale trilliard) bytes).[1][2][3][4][5]…..I Billion terabytes….Today, you can walk into your local computer store and buy a couple of terabyes for a $100.  Only $500 Million for a zettabyte.  In real terms that is dirt cheap, and getting cheaper daily.   Now that we have that cleared up, we can move to the next level.

With regard to the obvious issue of personal privacy, the European Union and other organizations have made efforts to protect privacy, with very mixed results.  Other governments, notably China, are aggressively implementing opposite policies to strictly limit privacy.  Highly sophisticated telecommunications equipment has been available for years that enables deep analysis of all of your voice and Internet traffic. We learned this when Dick Cheney secretly set up such equipment to track and record all voice and data traffic in the United States.  The equipment trapped and analyzed all of it in real time. You didn’t notice a thing.  The thing about your personal data is that they already have it. Most of it comes from public sources you authorized.   I not advocating this, I am only the messenger. The founder and former CEO of Sun Microsystems, Scott McNealy famously said, “You have no privacy. Get over it.”  We must not ignore the serious issue of privacy, but the problem is already here and deep data mining is thriving.  Privacy needs a revolution of its own.

The core question then becomes whether Big Data, and for that matter, the Cloud, and Smart Mobile, represent revolutionary and transformational changes in technological capability and also consequentially, human culture, politics: how we conduct ourselves in the World.  Or is it just so many more boring zeros and ones zooming by at the speed of light, stored in chips, and processed by quantum microprocessors?  No big deal, just IT management as normal.  Frankly, this is a significant philosophical question.  For this discussion, we will focus only on Big Data.   Discussion of the Cloud and Smart Mobile will follow later.  My most recent post on Smart Mobile gives a hint of my thoughts:  Mobile Market Share: A War of Titans Worth Following, http://mayo615.com/2013/01/21/mobile-os-market-share-strategy-war-of-the-titans-worth-following/

In fairness, I cut my teeth on Marshall McLuhan‘s ideas while in university in the 1960’s.  In an amazing irony, I soon fell into Intel Corporation at the birth of the microprocessor revolution, and later, I was also present to personally participate in the emergence of the personal computer. My memory of McLuhan kept popping up everywhere.   As my career progressed, I seemed to jump onto each new wave: networking at Sun Microsystems,  then the Internet infrastructure build out explosion with Ascend Communications, and finally a host of new companies, based on Internet-based capabilities.  Through all of it, I could only conclude that somehow McLuhan, like some kind of modern Nostradamus, had foreseen it all.   Most importantly, my own life was transformed by it all, and I saw with my own eyes the massive transformation occurring all around me.

globalvillage

So I have no doubt that Big Data is transforming our lives, and will continue to transform our lives, in ways we cannot yet fully grasp, as I could not grasp McLuhan when I first heard him, or the significance of the Internet as I sat right in the middle of it.

I have previously described Big Data as analogous to the evolution of Chaos Theory.  For centuries, full understanding of the complexity of nature’s designs were thought to be the realm of God, and beyond human comprehension and explanation.  Then in the 1960’s in places like Santa Cruz, California and Germany, the elegant simplicity of a solution to chaos began to emerge.  The massive scale of Big Data is a very similar nut to crack. We are now seeing an elite group of data scientists and mathematicians begin to solve Big Data in a way similar to how chaos was resolved.  Google, Microsoft Bing, Baidu, Yahoo and Amazon are driving the development of these mathematical skill sets.

chaos

Last year I showed my UBC Faculty of Management students a YouTube video on Data Mining. In the video, the two Hungarian mathematicians leading a data mining company, described how they had solved hideously complex problems that were previously beyond any computational solution. The key to their success was their ability to extract very precise useful information from extraordinarily large stores of information.  The metaphor here is more like finding a particular grain of sand on a very large beach.  A parallel key factor has been the incessant march of Moore’s Law.  Even 10 years ago, successful data mining on this scale could not have been accomplished. The computational cycles and high speed mass storage were not available or were too expensive.   Today those microprocessor cycles are available.  The costs will continue to plummet, making further advances inevitable. Failure to consider Moore’s Law and available computational cycles has also been the cause of many failed ideas over the years. But the threshold has arrived.

Today, developments like Google Spanner, the largest known database architecture in the World, have joined with the computational solutions.

Unveiled this fall after years of hints and rumors, it’s the first worldwide database worthy of the name — a database designed to seamlessly operate across hundreds of data centers and millions of machines and trillions of rows of information.

Spanner is a creation so large, some have trouble wrapping their heads around it. But the end result is easily explained: With Spanner, Google can offer a web service to a worldwide audience, but still ensure that something happening on the service in one part of the world doesn’t contradict what’s happening in another.

google-spanner

Google’s decision to reveal Spanner has many dimensions.  First, it provides a peek into the black World of the U.S.  National Security Agency and the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency.  Previously, the existence of such large and sophisticated global databases were only imagined. We now know they exist and are a crucial component of Big Data.

Read more in my post, Google Spanner, the single largest database in the world

http://mayo615.com/2012/11/26/inside-google-spanner-the-single-largest-database-in-the-world/

For me, the most compelling example of how this all works, has been the extremely sophisticated Big Data mining used by the Obama campaign to achieve re-election. As early as March 2012, the Wall Street Journal began reporting about “Dashboard,”  the Obama campaign app that was mining Big Data to find undecided voters in key states.  But not only undecided voters.  Dashboard can key in, find and persuade “Off the Grid” voters.  Off the Grid is the term used to describe those people, such as students and other young people, with constantly changing locations and only a mobile phone.  These voters have historically been virtually impossible to reach.  This short PBS Newshour video below speaks volumes about the extraordinary impact and value of Big Data, not seen before.

Watch How Much Do Digital Campaigns Know About You? on PBS. See more from PBS NewsHour.

The campaign’s hiring of Rayid Ghani, as “chief data scientist,” and an army of data analysts, set the stage for what was to come.  On election night, Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan were absolutely convinced that they had won the election, but were shocked to find otherwise. Working through their disbelief, both candidates later remarked about the enormous voter turnout for Democrats in key locations and the “technology advantage” of the Obama campaign.

So from my years of observation of the march of technology and its impact on my own life, I am convinced that we are entering another transformational period as profound as the emergence of the Internet itself.

I have been repeatedly drawn back to Steve Job’s 2005 Stanford University commencement address, in which he closes with references to Stuart Brand and The Whole Earth Catalog. Stuart Brand is an extraordinary futurist.  One of Ken Kesey’s original Merry Prankster’s chronicled in Tom Wolfe’s book non-fiction novel, The Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test, Brand had been inspired by the legendary first photograph of the entire Earth taken by Apollo 8 astronaut Frank Borman.  Brand is also the founder of The Well,  the very early Sausalito-based Internet Service Provider, who is now considered one of the most important thinkers on human culture, technology and its impacts.  Word of Job’s commencement address spread virally around the Valley...”Did you hear what Job’s said at Stanford today?”    Steve was basically saying that he too understood what McLuhan had said, and that Stuart Brand also understood the transformational importance of the Global Village, by publishing The Whole Earth Catalog.

stuartbrand2

WholeEarthCatalog

Enactus Launches Chapter with UBC Okanagan Faculty of Management


Enactus

Human progress depends on our ability to tap into the entrepreneurial spirit that lives within each of us and channel the unique talents, passions and ideas we each possess toward creating good in the world.

en•act•us
A community of student, academic and business leaders committed to using the power of entrepreneurial action to transform lives and shape a better more sustainable world.

entrepreneurial—having the perspective to see an opportunity and the talent to create value from that opportunity;

action—the willingness to do something and the commitment to see it through even when the outcome is not guaranteed;

us—a group of people who see themselves connected in some important way; individuals that are part of a greater whole.

Marshall McLuhan Was At Least Half Right


As an undergraduate student of Speech-Communication, I vividly recall learning about Marshall McLuhan, and the day we all watched the short video The Global Village,   a short kaleidoscopic film, and read the very brief pictorial paperback book, “The Medium is the Message,”multiple times.  Both were way ahead of their time.  These were heady times in the academic world.  As this was at least 15 years before the advent of the Internet, we were all grasping at the profundity of what McLuhan was saying to us….not realizing that this guy was predicting the World Wide Web.. Holy Shit!   We tried reading his books but found that they were so dense as to be impossible to read… What we could “sorta” get was “the medium was the message” visual representation and that weird little book..  I recall thinking that what McLuhan was saying was so cool, and chuckling about it, though I still could not fully grasp it.. I was experiencing the “cosmic giggle” that became the tag line for Rolling Stone magazine at that time.  And then, of course, Woody Allen immortalized McLuhan, by putting him into that scene in Annie Hall, where McLuhan walks up and tells the guy next to Allen and Diane Keaton, that he is completely full of shit, and understands nothing about his work. Whew!

Today, I look back on that time, struggling with McLuhan’s vision, and shake my head in utter awe..  It was as if we were sitting at the feet of Einstein desperately trying to explain relativity to us, and we just couldn’t quite get it.

We certainly get it now. Marshall McLuhan is my personal choice for intellectual giant of the second half of the 20th Century. This gives full due credit to Einstein.

But something interesting is happening with the Medium and the Global Village. It is bifurcating, at least for now.  The World Wide Web is continuing on its happy way, morphing over and over again as we go, now becoming only three important threads: The Cloud, Big Data, and Smart Mobile…The efforts of China, Iran, North Korea and others to control the Web, in my view, and the view of others, may be pathetic wastes of time, effort, money and technology. On the other hand it could be the beginning of “balkanization” of the Internet.  The Berlin Wall came down and the Great Wall is nothing more than a tourist attraction.  Efforts to stop the Web may be like King Canute trying to stop the waves, or it may be the beginning of a new Internet era.  But nothing else matters anymore, and for now nothing can stop it.

But on the more tangible side, financial, economic and political globalization things are retrograde.  The Economist this week reported that the World is less economically connected than it was in 2007, indeed less than it was in 2005.  It is an extraordinary contrast with the evolution of the WWW.  The Global Interconnectedness Index, rather like the index of consumer confidence, is reporting that people around the World believe that we are more globally interconnected economically than we actually are. Foreign Direct Investment is way down, and my guess is that it may not recover soon.. A whole raft of global political issues are beginning to emerge that are restraining economic globalization, rather like mercantilism in the 18th Century and how it evolved and morphed over time.

The World is not yet ready.. Years ago, the University of California at Santa Cruz had a graduate program entitled The History of Consciousness, led by Professor Cesar Grana. I met with Professor Grana at the time, and was fascinated at his approach to McLuhan’s vision.  Everything is connected: art, science, music, theology, and it has evolved as the human race has evolved.

What we have with the current pull back from economic globalization is the fact that the human race is simply not ready to embrace a complete Global Village.  We are on the edges of it with World Music, and the World Wide Web, but it appears that full economic and political realization of Stuart Brand’s Whole Earth Catalog....as described by Steve Job’s in his now famous 2005 commencement address at Stanford…is just not here yet, though some of us have been waiting for years.  Jobs passed on and some of us may as well before this chapter is closed.

As Steve Jobs told us, the last edition of the Whole Earth Catalog advised us to “Stay hungry. Stay foolish.”

stayhungrystayfoolish