Industry Analysis: The Bigger Picture

by David Mayes on Jul 19, 2013

Industry analysis is not a well understood discipline. It sits between macro economic analysis and market analysis, and uses tools from both. It is most commonly associated with the financial services industry which produces guides for their investors. But there are also large global consultancy firms that specialize in industry analysis.   It is an important tool for governments, regional development agencies. Companies use industry analysts to assist their strategic planning. Those who can anticipate the changes in an industry are more likely to be successful.  This brief presentation provides an overview of what industry analysis is, examples of industry analysis in action, and why it is so important.

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Industry Analysis: the bigger picture.  Presentation Transcript

• 1. Industry Analysis: The Bigger Picture July 2013 ©David Mayes 1
• 2. Industry Analysis: The Bigger Picture David Mayes, Lecturer ©David Mayes 2
• 3. Introduction 1. Lecturer Introduction 2. What is Industry Analysis? 3. Why Industry Analysis? 4. Suggested Reading Industry Analysis: The Bigger Picture ©David Mayes 3
• 4. Lecturer Introduction ©David Mayes 4 Industry Analysis: The Bigger Picture
• 5. Industry Analysis Lecturer Introduction David Mayes: LinkedIn Profile: http://www.linkedin.com/in/mayo615 Google+ Profile: https://plus.google.com/u/0/118299264663896711410/about Email: david.mayes@ubc.ca mayo0615@gmail.com UBC Office: EME 4157 (250) 807-9331 Hours: Thurs. 12PM – 2PM or by appt. Cellular: (250) 864-9552 Twitter: @mayo615 Experience: Executive management, access to venture capital, international business development, sales & marketing, entrepreneurial mentorship, technology assessment, strategic planning, renewable energytechnology. Intel Corporation, 01 Computers Group (UK) Ltd., Mobile Data International, Silicon Graphics, Sun Microsystems, Ascend Communications, P-Cube, Global Internet Group LLP, New Zealand Trade & Enterprise. ©David Mayes 5
• 6. Introduction 1. Instructor Introduction 2. What is Industry Analysis? 3. Why Industry Analysis? 4. Suggested Reading ©David Mayes 6 Industry Analysis: The Bigger Picture
• 7. What is Industry Analysis? ©David Mayes 7 Industry Analysis: The Bigger Picture
• 8. Industry Analysis What is Industry Analysis? A Proposed Definition of Industry Analysis: Industry analysis looks at long-term trends and forces that affect an overall industry. It is a strategic analysis tool used by governments, economic development agencies, financial services & investment firms, management consultancy firms, and businesses. Current estimates and future industry projections may include consideration of a broad range of global and local factors: economic, supply and demand, individual competitors, other external future forecasts, and government policy affecting the industry. Industry analysis is commonly performed within the framework of macro- economic analysis as well as market analysis theories and tools. ©David Mayes 8
• 9. Industry Analysis What is Industry Analysis? Industry Analysis As A Discipline: • Best known in the financial services industry • Industry performance & forecast guides for investors • High profile industry analysis consultancy firms • IDC, Gartner, Forrester, dozens of others in vertical markets • Used as a strategic planning tool by companies • “How to” guides/textbooks very limited, but masses of primary statistics and reports • Seen as between macro-economics and market research ©David Mayes 9
• 10. Macro Economy: Global, Regional, National An Industry: Global, Regional, National A Market: Can Be Industry Sub- segment(s) Competitor(s) Us Industry Analysis What is Industry Analysis? Hierarchy of Economic Analysis OUR FOCUS ©David Mayes 10
• 11. Industry Analysis What is Industry Analysis? IDC Forecasts Worldwide Semiconductor Revenues Will Reach $305 Billion in 2012 IDC Forecasts Worldwide Semiconductor Revenues Will Reach $305 Billion in 2012 Business Wire FRAMINGHAM, Mass. — December 15, 2011 “Despite the continuing global macroeconomic problems, semiconductor inventory overbuild early this year, and current DRAM oversupply, semiconductor revenues will register positive year-over-year (YoY) growth of 3.4% and 3.1% with $296billion and $305 billion for 2011 and 2012, respectively, according to the year-end 2011 update of IDC’s Semiconductor Application Forecaster (SAF).”The 2011 year-end update reaffirms the views IDC expressed in its qualitative SAF update published in November 2011….” Yada yada yada… Full Report Price: $1,000, other reports up to $10,000 Industry Analysis Example ©David Mayes 11
• 12. Industry Analysis What is Industry Analysis? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31SpS3 6ynDs&hd=1 Semiconductor Industry Analysis: Intel Cuts 2012 Outlook on Hard Drive Shortage (Flood in Thailand) ©David Mayes 12
• 13. Industry Analysis What is Industry Analysis? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=- I50V4PO1y4&feature=g- wl&context=G25b6f51AWAAAAAAAAAA Information Technology Industry Analysis: Samsung Economic Research Institute ©David Mayes 13
• 14. Industry Analysis What is Industry Analysis? http://www.economist.com/node/21541746 The Economist on Video Gaming: World of Warcraft vs. New Market Entrants ©David Mayes 14
• 15. Industry Analysis What is Industry Analysis? http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xblts0_in dustry-analyst-jesse-divnich-on- v_videogames Video Gaming Analyst Jesse Divnich on the Video Games Industry ©David Mayes 15
• 16. Industry Analysis What is Industry Analysis? Answer: Huge consumption of microprocessors for game consoles “Over the past two decades the video-games business has gone from a cottage industry selling to a few niche customers to a fully grown branch of the entertainment industry. According to PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC): • Global video-game market worth around $56 billion last year. • More than twice the size of the recorded-music industry • Three-fifths the size of the film industry, Including DVD sales Video games will be the fastest-growing form of media over the next few years, with sales rising to $82 billion by 2015.” — The Economist. December 10th, 2011 How Does The Video Games Market Relate to the Semiconductor Industry? ©David Mayes 16
• 17. Industry Analysis What is Industry Analysis? Leading Industries in Canada (GDP): • Aerospace (5th largest in the World) • Agri-food (4th largest exporter) • Automotive (3rd largest exporter in World) Leading Industries in British Columbia (GDP): • Construction • Manufacturing (?) • Mining & Gas Extraction Leading Industries in the Thompson Okanagan (GDP): • Construction • Manufacturing • Services (retail, tourism, etc.) Key Industries in Canada ©David Mayes 17
• 18. Questions? What is Industry Analysis? ©David Mayes 18
• 19. Industry Analysis 1. Instructor Introduction 2. What is Industry Analysis? 3. Why Industry Analysis? 4. Suggested Reading ©David Mayes 19 Industry Analysis: The Bigger Picture
• 20. Industry Analysis Why Industry Analysis? ANSWER: Large scale economic shifts caused by demographic, geographic, political, technological and social changes can create new opportunities or can lead to the demise of a company. Competitors that can anticipate these large-scale economic shifts are more likely to survive. Why Industry Analysis? ©David Mayes 20
• 21. Industry Analysis Why Industry Analysis? • Government Policy • Taxation, incentives, international export market development • Focused Economic Development Programs • Which industries should be promoted? • Example: New Zealand Trade & Enterprise* • Institutional/Individual Investment Management • Tracking Industry Trends and Growth • Management Consultancy Firms • Strategic Business Decisions on Markets • Individual businesses Why Industry Analysis? ©David Mayes 21
• 22. Industry Analysis Why Industry Analysis? • Federal, Provincial Ministries & Economic Development Agencies • Canadian Ministries of Industry and International Trade • BC Ministry of Energy, Mines and Petroleum • Central Okanagan Regional Development • Financial Services and Investment Firms • BMO, CIBC, RBC, TD Canada Trust, credit unions • Stock brokerages • Financial news networks • Management Consultancy Firms • Accenture, BCG, HP, IBM, PWC, Forrester, Gartner, IDC • Businesses • Executive management, strategic planning units • Corporate positioning, SWOT, long range planning Who Conducts and Uses Industry Analysis? ©David Mayes 22
• 23. Industry Analysis Why Industry Analysis? Example: New Zealand Trade & Enterprise Marketing an Entire Nation as an Industry http://www.nzte.govt.nz/Pages/default.aspx http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eh-0knDpn5g ©David Mayes 23
• 24. Industry Analysis Why Industry Analysis? Example: International Data Corporation (IDC) http://www.idc.com/prodserv/maps/consumer.jsp ©David Mayes 24
• 25. Industry Analysis Why Industry Analysis? Example: Central Okanagan Economic Development Commission http://investkelowna.com/ ©David Mayes 25
• 26. Questions? Why Industry Analysis? ©David Mayes 26
• 27. Industry Analysis 1. Instructor Introduction 2. What is Industry Analysis? 3. Why Industry Analysis? 4. Suggested Reading ©David Mayes 27 Industry Analysis: The Bigger Picture
• 28. Industry Analysis Suggested Reading: Suggested Reading: HBR’s 10 Must Reads on Strategy, Harvard Business Press, 2011 (HBR article anthology). Blue Ocean vs. Five Forces, Burke, A.E. (HBR journal article, online) http://toby.library.ubc.ca/subjects/subjpage2.cfm?id=660 How to Conduct An Industry Analysis, Small Business and Technology Development Center, http://www.sbtdc.org/pdf/industry_analysis.pdf ©David Mayes 28
• 29. ©David Mayes 29

Integrated Big Data, Cloud, and Smart Mobile: One Big Deal or Not?

IEEE Talk: Integrated Big Data, The Cloud, & Smart Mobile: One Big Deal or Not?

by David Mayes on Jul 10, 2013

This IEEE Talk discusses the three biggest trends in online technology and proposes that in fact, they represent one huge integrated trend that is already having a major impact on the way we live, work and think. The 2012 Obama Campaign’s Dashboard mobile application, integrating Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile is perhaps the most significant example of this trend, combining all three technologies into one big thing. A major shakeout and industry consolidation seems inevitable. Additional developments as diverse as the Internet of Things, Smart Grid, near field communication, mobile payment processing, and location based services are also considered as linked to this overall trend.

IEEE Talk: Integrated Big Data, The Cloud, & Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not? from David Mayes

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IEEE Talk: Integrated Big Data, The Cloud, & Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not? Presentation Transcript

• 1. Big Data, The Cloud, & Smart Mobile: Integrated Big Deal or Not? ©David Mayes 1
• 2. IEEE: UBC Okanagan Wednesday, February 6th, 2013 ©David Mayes 2
• 3. Speaker Introduction IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not? ©David Mayes 3
• 4. David Mayes: LinkedIn Profile: http://www.linkedin.com/in/mayo615 Personal Blog: http://mayo615.com UBC Office: EME 4151 (250) 807-9821 / Hours by appt. Email: david.mayes@ubc.ca mayo0615@gmail.com Mobile: (250) 864-9552 Twitter: @mayo615 Experience: Executive management, access to venture capital, International business development, sales & marketing, entrepreneurial mentorship, technology assessment, strategic planning, renewable energy technology. Intel Corporation (US/Europe/Japan), 01 Computers Group (UK) Ltd, Mobile Data International (Canada/Intl.), Silicon Graphics (US), Sun Microsystems (US), Ascend Communications (US/Intl.), P-Cube (US/Israel/Intl.), Global Internet Group LLP (US/Intl.), New Zealand Trade & Enterprise. IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not? ©David Mayes 4
• 5. Agenda • Some Historical Context • The Emergence of SoMoClo • The Emergence of Big Data • The Emergence of Smart Mobile • The Convergence of ToDaClo • What Do You Think? IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not? ©David Mayes 5
• 6. Some Historical Context IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not? ©David Mayes 6
• 7. Canada’s McLuhan: The First Hint “The new electronic interdependence recreates the world in the image of a global village.” Marshall McLuhan, “Gutenberg Galaxy”, 1962, Canadian author, educator, & philosopher (1911 – 1980) IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not? Video: The “McLuhan” Scene from Annie Hall © David Mayes 7
• 8. Stuart Brand, Jobs & Woz: The Whole Earth Catalog IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not? ©David Mayes 8
• 9. Grove, Noyce and Moore IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not? “We had no idea at all that we had turned the first stone on something that was going to be an $80 billion business.” -Gordon Moore ©David Mayes 9
• 10. Sir Tim Berners-Lee and Vin Cerf IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not? ©David Mayes 10
• 11. Agenda • Some Historical Context • The Emergence of SoMoClo • The Emergence of Big Data • The Emergence of Smart Mobile • The Convergence of ToDaClo • What Do You Think? IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not?
• 12. The Emergence of SoMoClo IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not? Social + Mobile + Cloud ©David Mayes 12
• 13. Emergence of Social Media IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not? ©David Mayes 13
• 14. 2012 Social Media Market Landscape IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not? ©David Mayes 14
• 15. Emergence of “Cloud Computing” IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not? ©David Mayes 15
• 16. Emergence of End-user Cloud Apps IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not? ©David Mayes 16
• 17. 2012 Cloud Enterprise Players IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not? ©David Mayes 17
• 18. The Key Issue: Data Privacy Reliability, and Security Despite reassurances, there is no permanent solution, no silver bullet. The only solution is to unplug IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not? ©David Mayes 18
• 19. Recent Cyber Security News: • Google Chairman, Eric Schmidt’s new book on China: • “the world’s most active and enthusiastic filterer of information” as well as “the most sophisticated and prolific” hacker of foreign companies. In a world that is becoming increasingly digital, the willingness of China’s government and state companies to use cyber crime gives the country an economic and political edge. • NY Times, WSJ hacking last week traced to China • Twitter theft of 250K users personal information last week • Sony PlayStation Anonymous hacks (twice in 2 weeks) IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not? ©David Mayes 19
• 20. Agenda • Some Historical Context • The Emergence of SoMoClo • The Emergence of Big Data • The Emergence of Smart Mobile • The Convergence of ToDaClo • What Do You Think? IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not?
• 21. The Emergence of “Big Data” IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not? ©David Mayes 21
• 22. Emergence of “Big Data” • Major advances in scale and sophistication of government intelligence gathering and analysis • Cost no object • NSA PRISM global telecom surveillance programPost 9/11 World IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not? ©David Mayes 22
• 23. An Interesting Scientific Analogy Chaos, with reference to chaos theory, refers to an apparent lack of order in a system that nevertheless obeys particular laws or rules; this understanding of chaos is synonymous with dynamical instability, a condition discovered by the physicist Henri Poincare in the early 20th century that refers to an inherent lack of predictability in some physical systems. IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not? ©David Mayes 23
• 24. Key Drivers of the Emergence of Big Data • Moore’s Law – compute cost and power • Design rules, multi-core, 3D design • Massive cost decline in data storage • Emergence of solid state memristor • Google Spanner 1st global real-time database • DARPA “Python” programming language • Data Center data storage accumulation • 2.7 zettabytes currently and growing rapidly • A zettabyte equals 1021 bytes (1000 exabytes) IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not? ©David Mayes 24
• 25. The Big Data Landscape Today IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not? ©David Mayes 25
• 26. The Key Issue: Privacy “Get over it! You have no privacy!” Scott McNealy, former CEO of Sun Microsystems IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not? ©David Mayes 26
• 27. Agenda • Some Historical Context • The Emergence of SoMoClo • The Emergence of Big Data • The Emergence of Smart Mobile • The Convergence of ToDaClo • What Do You Think? IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not?
• 28. The Emergence of Smart Mobile IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not? ©David Mayes 28
• 29. Emergence of Smart Mobile IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not? ©David Mayes 29
• 30. Key Drivers of Smart Mobile • Moore’s Law – compute cost and power • Design rules, multi-core, 3D design • Focus on reducing heat: gate leakage • Intel Atom “all day battery life” is a beginning • Massive cost decline in data storage • Mobile bandwidth:4G/LTE “no cost difference” • “White space” metro Wi-Fi potential maybe • New available spectrum between digital TV channels: increased transmit power • PC market death: Dell Computer & HP IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not? ©David Mayes 30
• 31. Mobile-based Services • GPS, Cloud, personal and database info on mobile • Geotagging from current location tied to your objective: • Find merchandise, restaurant, bar, etc. • Find and tag people • Find people with similar interests nearby • The rise of the mobile gaming market • Already well-established in Hong Kong, Seoul • North America far behind Asian telecom markets • Facebook has just announced LBS plans • The downside: battery drain issue still critical • “People want their phones to do too much” • 4G LTE, Wifi, Bluetooth, GPS, Streaming, Mobile Gaming IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not? ©David Mayes 31
• 32. Location-based Services Landscape IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not? ©David Mayes 32
• 33. Agenda • Some Historical Context • The Emergence of SoMoClo • The Emergence of Big Data • The Emergence of Smart Mobile • The Convergence of ToDaClo • What Do You Think? IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not?
• 34. The Convergence of “ToDaClo” Touch + Data + Cloud IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not? ©David Mayes 34
• 35. David Mayes ‹#›
• 36. Agenda • Some Historical Context • The Emergence of SoMoClo • The Emergence of Big Data • The Emergence of Smart Mobile • The Convergence of ToDaClo • What Do You Think? IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not?
• 37. Discussion: Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile, Big Deal or Not? IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not? ©David Mayes 37
• 38. My Key Takeaway Points • Even from the 50,000 foot level, a shakeout and consolidation seem inevitable • A lot of people are going to lose a lot of money • There will be “snake oil” sold that does not work • Nevertheless these three new markets are actually one unified market, and likely: The Next Big Thing IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not? ©David Mayes 38
• 39. What Do You Think? • No. ToDaClo is mostly media hype, and not a “Big Deal.” • I’m skeptical. ToDaClo will probably be a “Big Deal,” but I haven’t seen much yet • Maybe. I do not know yet whether ToDaClo will be a Big Deal • Yes. ToDaClo is a Big Deal and it is already changing our lives IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not? ©David Mayes 39
• 40. Thank You! IEEE UBC Okanagan Big Data, The Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big Deal or Not? ©David Mayes 40
• 41. ©David Mayes 41

 

IEEE Seminar, February 6th, 5PM, EME 1151

 

 

IEEE Okanagan Subsection
Presents
Mr. David Mayes
Faculty of Management, Global Internet Group, LLP
Big Data, the Cloud, and Smart Mobile: Big
Deal or Not?
Time & Date: 5pm-6pm, February 6, 2013
Location: EME 1151, UBC Okanagan campus
Talk Abstract: We are hearing regularly in the media about so-called “Big Data.” Is Big Data so
transformational that it will change our everyday lives, or is it just another evolutionary advance
that may improve productivity but not much else? The same arguments may apply to the concept
of “The Cloud,” and “Smart Mobile,” the other two major trends. I say that the three, taken together,
are coalescing into the most important new force in information technology in decades. They will
drive further innovation and productivity enhancements into the foreseeable future. The talk will
explore all three trends and pose questions for the future.
Speaker Biography: Mr. David Mayes is a full-time Lecturer in entrepreneurship, communication,
negotiation, IT and strategic management at The University of British Columbia, Faculty of
Management, and Master’s degree program. Mr. Mayes was founder and spokesperson for the Intel,
Microsoft and Compaq initiative for high speed consumer “universal” DSL Internet access. Mr.
Mayes also led a number of other major industry initiatives: Vendors’ ISDN Association, V.92
modem consortium. Mr. Mayes joined with Microsoft as an author of the IETF security protocol
PPTP (point to point tunneling protocol), creating secure “virtual private networks” across the
Internet. Mr. Mayes formed solar energy company, Sola Renewable Energy Ltd., and was
Executive Director and Chairperson of the Okanagan Environmental Industry Alliance (OEIA),
which works directly with local, regional, provincial and federal Canadian government groups.
Mr. Mayes began his career at Intel Corporation in California, Oregon and Europe. He left Intel
while based at Intel’s European HQ, to form his first entrepreneurial venture, 01 Computers Group
Ltd., based in London. Its corporate clients included the BBC, British Telecom and Imperial
Chemical Industries. Recently, Mr. Mayes was Vice President of Business Development at P-Cube,
iBEAM Broadcasting, and Director of Business Development at Ascend Communications. Mr.
Mayes was directly involved in a variety of multinational venture investments, public, private
mergers, acquisitions, corporate partnerships, and sales, including Ascend’s acquisitions of NetStar
and Cascade Communications.
Pizza and drinks will be provided after the talk. For further information please contact:
Julian Cheng (email: julian.cheng@ubc.ca)

 

Strategic Inflection Points: A Case Study

In his book, Only The Paranoid Survive, Andy Grove, former CEO and Chairman of Intel describes a “strategic inflection point”  as being similar to the situation when a hiker on a trail suddenly realizes he is lost. The hiker doesn’t know when he became lost, but something has changed.

The concept of strategic inflection points is perhaps Grove’s most important contribution to high tech management. I believe that this is because of the lightning speed of change and events in high tech markets like semiconductors. Then there is the sheer volume of information flying by, and the need to be able to discern what’s important from all of it.

In the early 1980’s the Japanese began a coordinated global campaign to displace Intel’s dominance in semiconductor memory.  The Japanese industry effort was coordinated by MITI, the government ministry of industry.  My Intel counterpart in Finland was reporting that the Japanese semiconductor reps were working directly from the Japanese Consulate in Helsinki.  At Intel’s technical center in Tokyo, Intel engineers were besieged with claims of Intel chip performance anomalies, requiring that Intel share complex testing results, known as “schmoo plots,” after the Rube Goldberg cartoon strip. Increasingly this appeared to be a coordinated effort at “reverse engineering.”   The Japanese also appeared to be engaging in an elaborate global pricing scheme designed to confound Intel in markets outside the continental US.

Simultaneously, I became a member of the hand-picked Intel Memory Components Marketing team, just as we relocated the division from California to Oregon.  At the direction of Ed Gelbach, senior Intel Marketing VP, and Andy, we quickly formed into an elite group of Ivy League MBA’s and Intel veterans to attack this Japanese challenge to Intel.  At about the same time, the Japanese challenge so disturbed US government officials that an arranged investment marriage was executed with IBM taking a 15% minority stake in Intel to send a message to the Japanese. The strategic situation was seen as dire.  For a number of years the elite Memory Components Marketing group succeeded in achieving miracles, and confounded the Japanese.  The global Intel Sales organization, repeatedly voted us the #1 marketing group at Intel, though we brought them less commission than other divisions.  Barry Cox, Scott Gibson, Frank Costa (my housemate), Bill Howe, Roy Coppinger, Larry Gordon, Nick Stier, Craig Brooksby, Ray Rund and many others made the difference. I should also give a nod to Tim Sweeney, who is the true “Intel alumni” who preceded those of us who followed him to Intel’s European organization.

Grove has not revealed much about this time, and the internal Intel effort to combat the Japanese, before he and Gordon Moore finally decided to exit the memory business, as a “strategic inflection point.”  NPR recently broadcast an interview with both Gordon and Andy that did not touch on Intel’s efforts to confront the Japanese.

A key factor in this global battle, was the traditional belief that new leading edge semiconductor manufacturing processes needed to be “proved out,”  in high volume memory production, before moving the most advanced microprocessor designs onto the new process.

The first strategic inflection point at Intel occurred when Gordon and Andy famously made the decision to end the memory business. They concluded that high volume memory production was not required to “prove” semiconductor manufacturing processes before putting microprocessors into production, and that Intel could safely exit the memory business, and remain highly competitive.

At least that’s how I remember it.